Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12

[Weathizard]

Not great 12z from a cold perspective but still lots to play for post 240, just hope the ens stick to their guns.

[fergieweather]

what the Lord giveth on the 06Z he taketh away on the 12Z

Still early days with lots to play for this next month

Yes - irrelevant output in terms of nuances and detail, way out at that sort of range. Models will all dance to a tune of inter-run variance as they struggle with any ingredients of major pattern change. Inevitable.

[Robbie Garrett]

CFS was giving the idea away that the high could go towards Greenland from that position and the cold would just head straight hear. Very plausible indeed.

Just imagine that cold pool heading our way at +48. This forum would explode and so would the servers!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

Obviously the 12Z isn't as good for the UK in distant F.I as the 06Z but im still pleased with the overall potential and the continued suggestion of a pattern change mid month.

[cooling climate]

A much more optimistic outlook from the UKMO tonight it will be interesting to view the

GFS ens to see if the op chose the wrong route post t144 perhaps. Also the ECM may

possibly show something more interesting tonight if this is the case.

[bluearmy]

A much more optimistic outlook from the UKMO tonight it will be interesting to view the

GFS ens to see if the op chose the wrong route post t144 perhaps. Also the ECM may

possibly show something more interesting tonight if this is the case.

Most of the gefs remain positively tilted come T180. Given this is a consistent ecm theme, i doubt we are going to see a reversal CC but then again, if the models are overdoing the atlantic energy, its what will show first.

[Summer Sun]

From Nick Miller on twitter

Remember today because in a few weeks time some of us will be struggling to recall the last time we had proper rain.

Sophie raworth tweeted

Really?

Nick Miller then tweeted

yes much drier spell on the way. Not bone dry and plenty of cloud but not the relentless soaking we've endured recently.

Peter Gibbs then tweeted

You mean because of the snow? *sniggers as the rumours start flying*

The met office must be confident of a pattern change then something the ensembles support

Edited December 31, 2012 by Gavin.

[Gibby]

Just sneaked away from the festivities to have a peek at the 12zs thus far. I can't see any route to cold anytime soon with the more likely scenario of a dissolving High pressure drifting slowly away East and South in preparation for a return to zonal type weather rather than anything wintry. The Synoptics just don't look conducive to developing cold to me and I've been around many years and, though I don't profess to know about all the Science behind the Weather that some of you guys know I can smell a cold spell from the correct synoptics when I see them and they just aren't shown for the UK currently. Anyway let's go back to the festivities and put the iPad down and drink to 2013. Happy New Year to you all.

[mike Meehan]

If it carries on like this I am going vote that this summer things are evened up so we shall have a glorious BBQ season.

Roll on spring - I don't like rain and perpetual gloom.

[Peter H]

so we shall have a glorious BBQ season.

Careful now !

[Polar Maritime]

If it carries on like this I am going vote that this summer things are evened up so we shall have a glorious BBQ season.

Roll on spring - I don't like rain and perpetual gloom.

Im afraid you have a long time to wait, we are only 4 weeks into winter,

A pattern change is on the way, at least it will be dry for a while..

[swfc]

Getting close to a scan high here on ecm at 168 hrs.see close

Edited December 31, 2012 by swfc

[bobbydog]

Just sneaked away from the festivities to have a peek at the 12zs thus far. I can't see any route to cold anytime soon with the more likely scenario of a dissolving High pressure drifting slowly away East and South in preparation for a return to zonal type weather rather than anything wintry. The Synoptics just don't look conducive to developing cold to me and I've been around many years and, though I don't profess to know about all the Science behind the Weather that some of you guys know I can smell a cold spell from the correct synoptics when I see them and they just aren't shown for the UK currently. Anyway let's go back to the festivities and put the iPad down and drink to 2013. Happy New Year to you all.

you can't see a route to cold? the drink is giving you a false sense of warmth..... happy (and snowy.....) new year!

i can see a route to cold-

Edited December 31, 2012 by bobbydog

[Summer Sun]

ECM keeps us in the settled weather for the rest of the week

Friday and Saturday will see the peak of the mild air

After this we see a return to more average temperatures

[Summer Sun]

you can't see a route to cold? the drink is giving you a false sense of warmth..... happy (and snowy.....) new year!

Well I can't see a route to the cold either in tonight's GFS run what I do see is the Atlantic showing its hand again longer term

Shorter term high pressure remains in place

Edited December 31, 2012 by Gavin.

[Panayiotis]

Comparisons with the ECM and GFS at 192hrs. As you can see they are both fairly similar, but the ECM has a deep cold pool near Greece/North West Turkey whereas the GFS has weaker cold pool to the NE of Turkey.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well I can't see a route to the cold either in tonight's GFS run what I do see is the Atlantic showing its hand again longer term

Shorter term high pressure remains in place

The Atlantic coming back thankfully massive FI hopefully gone on future runs, had enough Atlantic weather now, time for high pressure

[chionomaniac]

Anyone fancy chasing an easterly again?

[Panayiotis]

I wonder if this could happen on the ECM at 216hrs, a backwards undercut? That would be nice!

Edited December 31, 2012 by Panayiotis

[swfc]

big improvement on ecm and trending in the rite direction

[Summer Sun]

Well the next 2 weeks are showing no signs snow Chris Fawkes look at the next few days ended with the following

Next 2 weeks

High pressure near by

Not much rain England and Wales

Rain at times Northwest

Expect the models to be show high pressure for a while yet

Edited December 31, 2012 by Gavin.

[AWD]

It's easy to spot a "route to cold" on the 12z data but whether we go down that route is another matter.

With any "route to cold" still well in FI, looking at Operational charts at T300+ plus is fruitless, as with large scale northern hemispheric changes likely over the coming weeks, FI will be more topsy turvy than ever.

A split vortex is looking increasingly likely as we progress into Mid month;

It's all about following where the vortex pieces end up, which will help decide which side of the coin we end up on.

Easy to spot a route to cold, much harder to take a route that's beneficial to the UK.

[Panayiotis]

Now thats more interesting ECM!! It seems I was almost right! Roll the frames a bit more and you would get that -12C cold pool heading our way! If only!

Edited December 31, 2012 by Panayiotis

[TEITS]

Anyone fancy chasing an easterly again?

Don't think I have the stamina CH.

Must admit im not overly impressed with the consistency of the ECM in recent days but taking on board all of the output over the past 24hrs im very pleased with the potential from the 10th Jan onwards. The trend is certainly blocking but where is the question??

[Weathizard]

Atlantic looks pretty dead on this run, strange run really though. As I said the other day strange runs and flipping models is always the sign of change in my experience

[Jason M]

Don't think I have the stamina CH.

Must admit im not overly impressed with the consistency of the ECM in recent days but taking on board all of the output over the past 24hrs im very pleased with the potential from the 10th Jan onwards. The trend is certainly blocking but where is the question??

ECM at 216 onwards isn't exactly on its own when looking through the last few sets of ensembles. This type of solution is still in the minority but its gaining traction and tbh with the big push northwards of some very warm air a scandi high is highly logical even ignoring the strat impacts.

Jason