Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12

[That ECM]

I expect ECM to start to show a change this evening and have more of a look like the GFS. Go back 4/5 days and GFS was much flatter than what is showing now. I expect the NH to change in the next few runs and this will show more heights in that area.

Happy New Year.

Regards.

That ECM.

Edited December 31, 2012 by That ECM

[Panayiotis]

Takes over a weak what? A weak SSW?

Im sure he meant week.

[Frosty.]

After admire your optimism frosty.yes there are signs of a change in a fortnight or so to a more blocked scenario but where that leaves the uk weatherwise is anyones guess.happy new year

Thanks,

The weather will soon be turning much milder, and more importantly, much drier for the flooded areas and it could remain fairly dry for a few weeks, the north of the uk on the other hand, should have some occasional rain throughout this period but much milder than currently which means the scottish mountain snow cover will disappear by next week. I'm optimistic for the blocking after that with cold weather gaining the upper hand soon after mid January, but a few weeks of mild weather are unavoidable sadly.

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL

[bluearmy]

amplified ridging to our north in a weeks time seems pretty certain now. Does that go ne or will WAA from atlantic trough disruption drag it nw ? At the moment, the ncep output which brought on the latter solution looks outnumbered by the general consensus. Thus the amplification upstream to bring the greeny ridge takes a little longer. I think this remains outside ECM timeframe. Hence, although it may tease us with the Russian high again, the evolution to the greeny ridge will have to wait a little longer.

[damianslaw]

BBC very bullish today saying for england and wales at least no real rain for 2 weeks or so... for the foreseeable future quite unusually a dry mild spell of weather looks on the cards... early Jan is not renowned for such synoptics...

All interest in the coming days will be on where the high decides to position itself as we move into the second week of January, my own hunch is that it will attempt to ridge northeast towards scandi but be forced to retreat back south thanks to lower heights moving in from the NW heradling a significant pattern change with heights building strongly to the NW. Signs of such developments in the

GFS

output. Its all about trends at the moment as day to day changes are likely to be very small in the coming days. Suspect all the models by this weekend will begin to show these colder trends just beginning to creep into the reliable timeframe.

[Polar Maritime]

For me it's as interesting watching the models evolve to a cold set-up, as it is to get one, one thing is for sure we have the Stratt on our side this time.

Fingers & Toe's crossed, "Happy New Year to all"

[LomondSnowstorm]

The CFS has been consistent in the last few days in bringing in sustained blocking to the northwest for January and into February. Temperature anomalies vary but this is another sign perhaps that we should, in the longer term, be looking towards Greenland for blocking rather than towards Scandinavia.

(I know it says March on the above chart but it is actually for February).

It will be interesting to see whether the GFS continues to be a bit more progressive with the solution and whether the ensembles and other models start to follow suit or not. I think considerable uncertainty will remain for a good while yet as models toy around with different evolutions.

[Frosty.]

For me it's as interesting watching the models evolve to a cold set-up, as it is to get one, one thing is for sure we have the Stratt on our side this time.

Fingers & Toe's crossed, "Happy New Year to all"

Yes PM, the main reason the previous cold snap never turned into a beast was the cold strat, warming strat as in dec 2010 coming up, not suggesting we will have a cold spell of that magnitude but I do think it will be a noteworthy period of cold, but that's only my opinion and everyone else has one too.

[legritter]

Modell watching will be very interesting this week but we may have to wait possibly till thurs /friday before we see whats realy or possibly on offer for the uk as we approach mid january . But what is good from a coldies perspective is the fact that the atlantic weather systems hopefully will be slowing down and high pressure is starting to become more of a visitor of our region in the northern hemisphere .i would suggest to new posters and people with limited knowledge of meteorology to read posts from knowlegable posters and just stick to charts in the medium range . dont get down if you see temperatures of 15/ or even 16 C as i can assure you that many times in our weather history here in the british isles this can be followed by severe conditions . and as i said recently plenty of time left for the white stuff ,enjoy the weather and i would like to wish all my fellow posters ,A GOOD 2013 , CHEERS Legritter .

[Posh12]

I agree frosty foundations sound a lot stronger this time around. I can feel it in me boned happy new year all

Bones even

[Summer Sun]

Some parts of the UK could see temperatures well into the teens by Friday with mild air heading our way I wouldn't rule out someone some where hitting 14c

It will feel more like early spring than mid winter a pleasant change from all this drab and dreary weather

Edited December 31, 2012 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

I agree frosty foundations sound a lot stronger this time around. I can feel it in me boned happy new year all

Bones even

Yes the last cold snap was built on quicksand, next time the ground should be rock solid frozen, bit of a new year ramp there but some of those FI gfs charts are likely to become realistic in a little over two weeks time.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Gavin, it will, a relive from all this wet weather we have had to endure over the last month !

[bryan629]

ive been watching the low to our east over eastern europe/ russia the gfs has repetedly darted this low much further south, very progressive and blocks our high moving east, what does or can this mean in the long term or short term . i refer to around + 144

[Panayiotis]

Somewhere in between the black and the red arrows could see some immense snowfall, as the warmer air hits the cold air dragged in from SIberia.

I think Accuweather should hire me lol

Edited December 31, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Great Plum]

Some parts of the UK could see temperatures well into the teens by Friday with mild air heading our way I wouldn't rule out someone some where hitting 14c

It will feel more like early spring than mid winter a pleasant change from all this drab and dreary weather

I think it might be a push outside of the south west...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png

[Panayiotis]

Looking good so far at 204hrs, PV much weaker on this run compared to the 06z. This should hopefully allow heights to get into Greenland quicker, if the signal is still there.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Panayiotis

[cerneman]

Happy New Year to all,,,,, May the ssw do it's job and smash the PV, May reversal zonal set in and Easterly rattle T.E.I.T.S windows, Give us all taste of real winter,

[That ECM]

Looking good so far at 204hrs, PV much weaker on this run compared to the 06z. This should hopefully allow heights to get into Greenland quicker, if the signal is still there.

Agreed PV weaker but the energy coming out of Canada on this run then gets pushed north as its hits the pressure near us. This sends that energy to the place we would like to see the heights build.

UKMO makes less of the energy at t144 and if there was later frames, I think more heights would build to the north than is seen on this GFS run.

Edited December 31, 2012 by That ECM

[TEITS]

Just imagine that cold pool heading our way at +48. This forum would explode and so would the servers!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

Obviously the 12Z isn't as good for the UK in distant F.I as the 06Z but im still pleased with the overall potential and the continued suggestion of a pattern change mid month.

Edited December 31, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[bryan629]

Well the weather will do what it will do, heights gone and azores wants to keep sticking its neb in , lets hope the 18z are more cheery

[ITSY]

what the Lord giveth on the 06Z he taketh away on the 12Z

Still early days with lots to play for this next month

[Summer Sun]

I think it might be a push outside of the south west...

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10217.png

Apparently the Fohn affect has been mentioned that always helps in the north and east

[Jason M]

Oh well, GFS should bring expectations back in line with reality :-)

In the meantime we have a potentially exceptional mild spell to get through. The CET for the first 10 days of Jan is going to be something pretty exceptional if things pan out as expected.

No point in worrying about FI, lets see what the ensembles bring.

Jason

[AWD]

The one consistent thing about the GFS FI output is this;

This could be more beneficial for us than the SSW, who knows!

The one thing I notice about some of the previous GFS runs, and indeed the 12z run is a piece of the vortex over the Alaska area. If this were to happen then you will find it difficult getting strong height rises to our NW as energy will be sent eastwards into the Atlantic & the Jet Stream, collapsing any ridge that may form.

Maybe this is why NE might be better than NW?

Certainly a cold pool over the NE in FI.