Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[lfcdude]

Just looked at the snow maps... Looks good from Saturday..

[Mark Parsons]

I do hope when I wake up these sort of charts are still showing.

That's when I'll start getting excited.

Thats the thing, if we are still seeing those charts in the morning then we are probably on to something good.........

[quantock girl]

I logged out for a few minutes, but it's no good I had to come back.

Thank you, thank you, thank you for whoever did the naked snow dance - it may have worked

[Iceberg]

A interesting 36 hrs coming up.

In 12 hrs at 06.30 we get the conclusion of the 00z models to see if they still agree for Saturday.

In 18 hrs we get the 11am update from the meto which might include a yellow warning for snow on Saturday for parts of the sw. This will be based on the 00z and the 06z upto 72 hr suite inc mogreps 72 hrs.

In 24 hrs we get the conclusion of the next 12z models.

In 36 hrs we get the start of the timeframe in the short term models such as nae.

All very interesting and all little pieces of the jigsaw that will lead upto the how much and where question.

[cerneman]

I logged out for a few minutes, but it's no good I had to come back.

Thank you, thank you, thank you for whoever did the naked snow dance - it may have worked

I logged out for a few minutes, but it's no good I had to come back.

Thank you, thank you, thank you for whoever did the naked snow dance - it may have worked

It's a pleasure.but sure scared the sheep

[Snowangel-MK]

Thank you, thank you, thank you for whoever did the naked snow dance - it may have worked

Shhhhh...

[quantock girl]

Shhhhh...

lol!!!

[noggin]

Rob Mcelwee

but then again depending how old one is you could mean Bert Foord

I remember Bert Foord!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bert_Foord

Edited January 8, 2013 by noggin

[Mark Parsons]

I remember Bert Foord!

Christ, you must be getting on a bit, lol :-)

[noggin]

Christ, you must be getting on a bit, lol :-)

Sure am, sonny!

[khodds]

Oh god. I'm finding it hard to sleep at the mo already, without the excitement of snow prospects. I'm going to have to go to the doctors and get some tranquillisers if this comes into fruition!

....and why is it always forecast to snow when we have our works Christmas do? In December it threatened ( then went completely wrong) we had to cancel. Now it's rebooked for this Saturday! Really don't want to cancel again... But if its for snow then I don't really care! Lol!

[twister2005]

Hi all

Ians forecast is on bbc points west facebook page :-)

[divadee]

Just checked netweather forecast and 90% chance of snow here Sunday morning. I won't be getting overly excited (although I did a jig when I saw it!) hoping it truly comes off but as we all know here on the coast it is so hard to get the good stuff.

[cornish snow]

Much as I like the accuracy of David Braine, I do prefer presenters who show a bit more excitement, it is after all what keeps us lot poking around in here for hours on end, just waiting for the extremes to show.

In fairness to david,he does have a very diverse region to cover. On one side of the coin, he's got me living in the tropics of south cornwall and on the other he's got people living in princetown. NOT EASY. I think overall he does a good job,if not as good looking as emily wood .lol

p.s where does she live

[jessandjon]

I just checked for Torpoint and 0% chance on snow on any day :-(

[Mark Parsons]

In fairness to david,he does have a very diverse region to cover. On one side of the coin, he's got me living in the tropics of south cornwall and on the other he's got people living in princetown. NOT EASY. I think overall he does a good job,if not as good looking as emily wood .lol

p.s where does she live

Emily Wood, but wood she? lol!!!!!!

[cornish snow]

Emily Wood, but wood she? lol!!!!!!

In my dreams my friend in my dreams

[Mark Parsons]

Sure am, sonny!

No offence but thats even before my time, good on you we need people like you with memories that go back a bit!

[cerneman]

Christ, you must be getting on a bit, lol :-)

January 11 1954, George Cowling. was first ever on screen weather forecaster for BBC, Each forecast lasted 5 mins, Quote from Radio Times from that year " The weather forecaster will show how the weather expected tomorrow, is conditioned by what happens today",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,The cost of setting up studio set and props cost £50,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Now that what I call getting old

[Mark Parsons]

In my dreams my friend in my dreams

Ha ha

[Polar Bear]

Hi PB,

This is taken from the netweather ensembles guides.

Sometimes the control run will go off in a tangent and either be much higher or lower than

the other runs and the mean, this is known as an outlier and can often mean that the

control run is unlikely to be showing the actual outcome.

Basically, the closer the mean (red line on the GFS, white? on the ECM) is to the control run, then there is greater reliance on the model output being correct. More often than not, anything after T+96 is fantasy island. However, when it comes to predicting snowfall it is often <t+24. As ever, it is the trend, especially from the ensembles (model suite interpreations adjusted to several members), which are the key drivers of any forecast.

A control run (blue line on GEFS) is the latest run without any adjustment made to its original T+0 data.

brilliant thank you! Knew you would make it clear for me..

[Polar Bear]

Just home from a long day at work and a walk home in drizzle. So to cheer myself up I thought I'd read through the latest posts here.. Hmm seems very interesting.. That is all I can say. I will refrain from any emotion until the weekend. I must preserve my energy for a late night lamp watching but also for sulking and throwing my toys around the room should I be disappointed.

[cornish snow]

Getting back to the weather, from a IMBY point of view i cant get to exited to be honest. With the winds from the East /Northeast its usually dry and bright or frontal rain,turning to snow inland.Of course there have been some exeptions most notibaly 1987 but generally continental weather does not deliver .

Give me a GH with north west winds anyday. Much safer bet for the lizard pen

[Mark Parsons]

Getting back to the weather, from a IMBY point of view i cant get to exited to be honest. With the winds from the East /Northeast its usually dry and bright or frontal rain,turning to snow inland.Of course there have been some exeptions most notibaly 1987 but generally continental weather does not deliver .

Give me a GH with north west winds anyday. Much safer bet for the lizard pen

Given the circumstances of what is evolving this could well be a snow event even in Cornwall as there will be enough cold in the circulation, the big IF for everywhere is will there be enough ppn to support even a slight fall??

[noggin]

No offence but thats even before my time, good on you we need people like you with memories that go back a bit!

None taken. I know I'm one of the older members!

I remember trudging through the snow to school in the Winter of 62/63. I lived in Devon at the time.

My birthday is in February and when I was a child, there was usually snow, either falling or lying, on my birthday.

Then when I got to my teens and twenties, it was usually just a frost.

30's and 40's were usually mild and damp.

The past few years, mid 50's........things seem to be looking up a bit!