Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[AWD]

GEM offering a rather significant snow event on Monday;

So another model supporting a snowy weekend. In the short term we have a very exciting spell of weather. Snow is looking likely at some point during the weekend into next week now, its just getting the finer detail in line, which won't be done until much nearer the time.

Will it be snizzle or will it be significant? Time will tell!

[noggin]

What were they? Made of Gold?

Sainsbury's original price was £14.99 as was B&Q's, but they both reduced the prices. Sainsbury's were reduced to £4.99 and B&Q TO £9.99.

Seems like £14.99 is the RRP, generally.

I wonder if the price will go up over the next few days?

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Looks like rain/sleet for iow looking at those charts! Fingers crossed we get at least a flurry or 2 tho!

[AWD]

Sainsbury's original price was £14.99 as was B&Q's, but they both reduced the prices. Sainsbury's were reduced to £4.99 and B&Q TO £9.99.

Seems like £14.99 is the RRP, generally.

I wonder if the price will go up over the next few days?

I brought one from Wilkinsons for £3.99 and used it to empty the sand pit.

[offerman]

The low seems a little more intense on more recent runs that pulls in cold air first to the north then sinking south.

Looks like South could get some of the W.S

maybe west getting some deent falls as mild battles cold, maybe somerset and wilts see some good falls.

Much can change though so fingers crossed.

I just hope not to much rain falls on already flooded areas, thats the first thought before any fun snow.

[Iceberg]

GEM offering a rather significant snow event on Monday;

So another model supporting a snowy weekend. In the short term we have a very exciting spell of weather. Snow is looking likely at some point during the weekend into next week now, its just getting the finer detail in line, which won't be done until much nearer the time.

Will it be snizzle or will it be significant? Time will tell!

GEM is very good and follows on as well, it seems to show the very worst the meto are on about for monday(or the very best depending on your POV). UK MET isnt bad either at that range.

All in All i would put the chances of snow for somewhere in our area at maybe 80%.

NAE will be a stonker tomorrow no more hiding.

[gottolovethisweather]

GEM is very good and follows on as well, it seems to show the very worst the meto are on about for monday(or the very best depending on your POV). UK MET isnt bad either at that range.

All in All i would put the chances of snow for somewhere in our area at maybe 80%.

NAE will be a stonker tomorrow no more hiding.

Indeed, cross-model consensus was agreed on the 12z runs yesterday and the GEFS ensembles have solidly stuck to their guns since 3rd January regarding the cold.

As I said earlier, I have as good as gone from no longer hoping to borderline expecting.

I'll sit back now and see if the trend to snowfall continues.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[lfcdude]

Looking forward to ian"s Forecast tonight

[Bristawl Si]

GEM is very good and follows on as well, it seems to show the very worst the meto are on about for monday(or the very best depending on your POV). UK MET isnt bad either at that range.

All in All i would put the chances of snow for somewhere in our area at maybe 80%.

NAE will be a stonker tomorrow no more hiding.

TEITS pulled out the NOGAPs in the mod disc thread - not a good sign if we're resulting to that one!

Wintry mix this weekend i reckon - but overall for next week the trend, to me, seems colder but not as dramatic as some of the model runs were depicting yday. Damp squib comes to mind.

Maybe second bite of cherry into last part of Jan.

Just a hunch - seen these scenarios before.

[Iceberg]

Indeed, cross-model consensus was agreed on the 12z runs yesterday and the GEFS ensembles have solidly stuck to their guns since 3rd January regarding the cold.

As I said earlier, I have as good as gone from no longer hoping to borderline expecting.

I'll sit back now and see if the trend to snowfall continues.

Indeed, i cant find a model that isnt showing snow at some point for the sw at between T72 to T96, this isnt nailed, but its as good as it gets at this range. Meto still holding back though, but i can only assume its due to some mogreps uncertainty. Nae will dispell that tomorrow imho.

[AWD]

Looking forward to ian"s Forecast tonight

Considering he will have barely had time to see the ECM, it will probably be similiar to yesterday, with uncertainty being the main word.

Indeed, i cant find a model that isnt showing snow at some point for the sw at between T72 to T96, this isnt nailed, but its as good as it gets at this range. Meto still holding back though, but i can only assume its due to some mogreps uncertainty. Nae will dispell that tomorrow imho.

From reading posts from people with access to MOGREPS, the model is gunning for cold just as much as any other model.

Perhaps Ian could confirm however?

[gottolovethisweather]

TEITS pulled out the NOGAPs in the mod disc thread - not a good sign if we're resulting to that one!

Wintry mix this weekend i reckon - but overall for next week the trend, to me, seems colder but not as dramatic as some of the model runs were depicting yday. Damp squib comes to mind.

Maybe second bite of cherry into last part of Jan.

Just a hunch - seen these scenarios before.

IYBY?

[Bristawl Si]

IYBY?

????????????

[Lynxus]

????????????

IN Your? back yard...?

Anyway.. Finally see some snow on the horizon! Even on googles weather widget thing.

Currently 2.5c here

[Nights King]

IN Your? back yard...?

Anyway.. Finally see some snow on the horizon! Even on googles weather widget thing.

Currently 2.5c here

Met office app gives me snow from 3pm saturday to 3am sunday now although light and an ice day sunday.

I would post a picture but my link up thingy was stollen when my car was broken into on xmas eve along with car sterio and other stuff

[Bristawl Si]

IN Your? back yard...?

Anyway.. Finally see some snow on the horizon! Even on googles weather widget thing.

Currently 2.5c here

Well YES - pretty obvious isnt it, as this is the south west & south thread?!

Maybe it's that time to split, like previous years.

Just a thought.

[Lynxus]

Met office app gives me snow from 3pm saturday to 3am sunday now although light and an ice day sunday.

I would post a picture but my link up thingy was stollen when my car was broken into on xmas eve along with car sterio and other stuff

Fingers crossed aye mate! Seems like you need cheering up. What bast&£"$

[Karl83]

Lovin the accuweather app showing Bristol having 15cm snow on Monday.

[AWD]

Lovin the accuweather app showing Bristol having 15cm snow on Monday.

Wonder what they've been drinking tonight? lol.

It is an outside possibility I guess though!

[gottolovethisweather]

IN Your? back yard...?

Anyway.. Finally see some snow on the horizon! Even on googles weather widget thing.

Currently 2.5c here

Yes indeed Lynxus, in Bristles back yard.

Whilst it may not snow in his back yard, it may not snow in mine and a whole lot of others too.

I just don't want this thread going the way of the model thread and I certainly see no reason whatsoever to be downbeat about almost anybody's chances of the white stuff.

As it is, should Ian F or someone in the know suggest it is likely to be more rain than snow then we once again have to think about the flooding issues.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Lynxus]

Snow Accu by Sunday

Yes indeed Lynxus, in Bristles back yard.

Whilst it may not snow in his back yard, it may not snow in mine and a whole lot of others too.

I just don't wnat this thread going the way of the model thread and I certainly see no reason whatsoever to be downbeat about almost anybody's chances of the white stuff.

As it is, should Ian F or someone in the know suggest it is likely to be more rain than snow then we once again have to think about the flooding issues.

I think people have misquoted me...?

Someone said. IYBY? ( Assuming they were asking what it meant? )

I simply replied....

Edited January 9, 2013 by Lynxus

[gottolovethisweather]

Well YES - pretty obvious isnt it, as this is the south west & south thread?!

Maybe it's that time to split, like previous years.

Just a thought.

As a mod, I have to keep some objectivity in the understanding of what are pretty rare synoptics.

How often is your location at the cusp of a battleground snow event, which could last from Saturday through to Monday unabated.

Rarely, I would think.

Whilst, we simply don't know whether it will snow on your house, the same can be said of the rest of us.

I am not especially jumping on your post, rather your lack of appreciation of this rather rare set of synoptics.

Best move on now.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Snow Accu by Sunday

I think people have misquoted me...?

Someone said. IYBY? ( Assuming they were asking what it meant? )

I simply replied....

Me. In response to Bristle's post here.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2473268

Which to me, doesn't represent what the whole model suite are currently showing.

Anyway, time to move on and I await other respected member's posts to follow.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Wonder what they've been drinking tonight? lol.

It is an outside possibility I guess though!

Don't you start. It won't snow, you know, it never does just because I want it too.

Keep posting your intelligent and informative postings AWD, they are much appreciated.

[AWD]

Don't you start. It won't snow, you know, it never does just because I want it too.

Keep posting your intelligent and informative postings AWD, they are much appreciated.

Oh, I haven't started yet!

I think it will snow, every model run is showing snow of some form or another over the weekend.

I just don't want people to expect snowmaggedon quite yet.

Here comes the ECM anyway, lets see what we can get from this run!