Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Nights King]

_{As expected at work everyone has asked "is it going to snow this weekend" and so far I have managed to just smile and say maybe but not sure yet.}

_{3 Gruelling days of models to go before we have either hit the sledges or just the pub to drown our sorrows...}

[fromey]

morning,

i wouldn't read to much into anything at the moment, as ian has said "record breaking low confidence in the the forecast models"

so its a just wait and see IMO, it may just stop some from having a coronary!!

fromey

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

just in case anybody missed it last night

Edited January 9, 2013 by fromey

[legritter]

Further to my post last night this weekend could still deliver ,but still 72 hrs away so caution needed .the gfs is still sticking to its guns up to late sunday and then very wild swings further out in its output ,as much as 28/30 mb difference in pressure over a run of six hours .if you look at the 216hr projected pressure pattern between 2 runs you will see what i mean .but we do stand a fair shot this weekend but locations hard to predict at the moment .also possible events of a wintry nature as we go through next week but POSSIBLE needs to be remembered ,would be nice to be white come sunday .

[Kiwi]

_{As expected at work everyone has asked "is it going to snow this weekend" and so far I have managed to just smile and say maybe but not sure yet.}

Nice work ...best to be vague rather than having egg on your face!

Most of the permutations, even the milder ones, seem to favour something wintery over the Cotswolds this weekend. You could always dangle that carrot in front of them

....although I suppose if they drive up there and we get one of the colder snowier outcomes they might not make it back again! (could be perfect for some carefully selected colleagues!!)

[ARTDEMOLE]

7.7c. Staying Calm awating the weekend to see what it Doth bring...

[Mapantz]

I will never be excited about any snow prospects until it's pretty much a nowcast.

I was on a red warning for snow back in 2009 and literally less than 5 hours before the event, the whole thing moved east. I knew people who were going out and stocking up on fuel for gas lamps and extra food when that day occurred and around an inch fell in the end.

I know exactly how snowless this part of Dorset can be, back in December 2010 Facebook friends were going crazy at the south today's forecasts etc .. and i had to be the one to tell them that it was going to turn to rain very shortly, I got rubbished a lot but proved to be correct, the whole lot ended up as the worst slush you can imagine.

I won't even be cracking a smile until the three or four hours before any (if) events here.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Mapantz

[khodds]

If it goes all wrong its my fault - I MOVED my snow shovel this morning - sorry

On a positive note - its a gorgeous day here, so nice to see the sun again - its lifted my mood no end.

I'm looking towards this evenings output now - here onwards is crucial. Bloomin exciting though!

Right... off to Tesco to look for rock salt..... SHOOT ME NOW!!!!!!!

[cerneman]

Brighter today, little hints of blue sky, My new Temp gauge showing 7,9c, Buzzards up effortless circuling

[Jason74]

Latest post by Nick S on the model thread clearly states a low confidence in the models (see below):

I think comments by NOAA on the Michigan state forecast sum things up perfectly!

OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM AS MODEL

DISCREPANCIES ARE QUITE APPARENT ESPECIALLY AT DEEPER RANGES INTO

THE FORECAST. THIS WINTER HAS SEEMED TO FEATURE MODEL RUN TO MODEL

RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THIS LONG TERM

PERIOD AND BEYOND SEEMS NO DIFFERENT.

Earlier regarding the important shortwave track:

AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE REALLY DIPS GIVEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE

MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH

SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH IT

SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HAVE 30-50 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND

ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MODEL

DISPARITIES.

[Frosty_wsm]

Like your post, but its two runs now...

Which means nothing quite frankly, how many bad ecm op runs were there before it decided to switch to cold, the gfs could easily switch back to cold in the 12z.

Some of the toys being thrown about in the mod thread this morning by some members was laughable if you ask me!

[AWD]

The NAE at T48 looks interesting.

The cold uppers already hitting the east coast on Friday.

[latitude]

Which means nothing quite frankly, how many bad ecm op runs were there before it decided to switch to cold, the gfs could easily switch back to cold in the 12z.

Some of the toys being thrown about in the mod thread this morning by some members was laughable if you ask me!

Thank you for pulling out that small line from my contributions today.

Anyhow it does means something because there is more support in the ensembles for the 06z output.

[westysweather]

could it be a repeat......

what a dream it would be (and a coincidence it would be, perhaps these guys have had a heads up!)

http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/Fifty-years-ago-snow-brought-West-standstill/story-17767295-detail/story.htmly.html

[AWD]

Latest from Ian on twitter;

"W COUNTRY Dry & chillier today; light winds; some mist/fog tonight & frost for some. Thurs cloudier with rain in W into eve, heavy in places"

"W COUNTRY Transition to colder easterly flow during Sat; heavy rain (10-20mm poss); turning wintry later to N especially (e.g. Cotswolds)."

"W COUNTRY Some further wintry mix possible overnight Sat into early Sun as front retreats S; thereafter a cold, dry day, with ice a hazard."

"W COUNTRY Mon-Tues uncertain: potential for more significant wintry weather/snow, but v low confidence on development & detail."

[Nights King]

The NAE at T48 looks interesting.

The cold uppers already hitting the east coast on Friday.

Interesting although what kind of uppers would we really need in an undercut to produce snow as it will be a dry continental feed?

[TwisterGirl81]

Latest from Ian on twitter;

"W COUNTRY Dry & chillier today; light winds; some mist/fog tonight & frost for some. Thurs cloudier with rain in W into eve, heavy in places"

"W COUNTRY Transition to colder easterly flow during Sat; heavy rain (10-20mm poss); turning wintry later to N especially (e.g. Cotswolds)."

"W COUNTRY Some further wintry mix possible overnight Sat into early Sun as front retreats S; thereafter a cold, dry day, with ice a hazard."

"W COUNTRY Mon-Tues uncertain: potential for more significant wintry weather/snow, but v low confidence on development & detail."

I really really hope so!!

[snowponies]

Crossing my fingers for a bit of snow on Dartmoor this weekend! Though I think we were the only location in the far south west who have actually already had a bit of snow already this winter (though it didn't settle). If the models start agreeing on Friday on the cold weather setting in then better start stocking up! Nobody wants to run out of food and bakki when snowed in with over a foot of snow which happened in feb 09!

[AWD]

Interesting although what kind of uppers would we really need in an undercut to produce snow as it will be a dry continental feed?

I wouldn't like to say really as forecasting snow is a lot more complicated than just uppers. Will have to look at WBFL & thickness's as well as Dewpoints nearer the time.

If those -7c uppers do make their way to the West on Saturday, it would rapidly increase the chance of any PPN falling as snow however.

[AWD]

Mmmmm........ What's that I see on Monday;

[Coast]

Mmmmm........ What's that I see on Monday;

You'll have to charge your phone up? :unsure:

[latitude]

Mmmmm........ What's that I see on Monday;

Sleet!!!

[AWD]

Sleet!!!

Yup. Slowly but surely!

[Mark Neal.]

Mmmmm........ What's that I see on Monday;

Rain Snow! A.K.A the lovely weather that is Sleet :-)

[Andy Bown]

Glorious day today after early low cloud moved away, the best day since New Years Day with plenty of bright sunshine :-) !

[TwisterGirl81]

Crossing my fingers for a bit of snow on Dartmoor this weekend! Though I think we were the only location in the far south west who have actually already had a bit of snow already this winter (though it didn't settle). If the models start agreeing on Friday on the cold weather setting in then better start stocking up! Nobody wants to run out of food and bakki when snowed in with over a foot of snow which happened in feb 09!

Totally agree I hope we get snow! I've got a really good feeling that at some point in the next month or so we are going to get a big snow event....maybe more...