Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Lynxus]

Me. In response to Bristle's post here.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2473268

Which to me, doesn't represent what the whold model suite is currently showing.

Anyway, time to move on and I await other respected member's posts to follow.

Ahhhhhh LOL. Now I get you. Confusing as hell that was.

Anyway...

Spent the last few hours looking over the models. Still looking good to me. The GFS is ( As always ) over progressive with the west. So following the mean between the ECM and GFS is handy.

With that said the GFS still looks good for us... I would put some bets on that he PPN is wintry in nature at least. ~-3 / -5 should be good for us.

Some serious PPN ( even if it falls as rain. ) -- I say serious.. I mean , considering how wet the ground is already..

I have seen snow at +5c before.. So this doesnt worry me too much ( Once again, progressive GFS so i would expect these values to be a bit lower. )

NAE showing the cooler air nice and close to us by friday ( Closer than the previous run )

All in all , I think ( going by the current cooling trend and the latest models ) we may be in for some good fun this weekend and into next week.

Some models are showing even cooler air next week, So we may even have a shot at some real snowy weather.. More than we have seen in a long time.

-G

Edited January 9, 2013 by Lynxus

[dancing daisy]

IMBY...

Meto says no.

Accuweather says no.

I say yes.

Intelligent post?

[gottolovethisweather]

Oh, I haven't started yet!

I think it will snow, every model run is showing snow of some form or another over the weekend.

I just don't want people to expect snowmaggedon quite yet.

Here comes the ECM anyway, lets see what we can get from this run!

In response to your post, I suggest the following.

Indeed, it should be a widespread event, largely based on a rain to snow scenario.

I too, have attempted to keep my feet on the ground but this truly is a fascinating development.

Let us know what the ECM and especially the ensembles as these will be very good indicators as to the duration of the snowy spell.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

See these Somerset ensembles. We have pretty good agreement now on upper air temperatures getting down to close to -10hpa.

Add to this a significant risk of precipitation;

And your looking at a high risk of snowfall.

Looking further out, the GFS Operational was all but a mild outlier, with mean surface temperatures not going above 5c. A cold outlook, moderated at times if you ask me!

Edited January 9, 2013 by AWD

[westysweather]

I was there! Actually there, in Exeter! At that very time!

what was it really like in exeter, where abouts were you living when it happened?

[gottolovethisweather]

IMBY...

Meto says no.

Accuweather says no.

I say yes.

Intelligent post?

Yes, yes, yes.

Anyway, didn't I say something about moving on.

Actually, thinking about it, its all guesswork so I think I'll stick the seaweed and ignore the output from now on, just like the old days.

Edited January 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Latest from ECM suggests Saturday night into Sunday could be interesting.

Longer term is looking different though.

[gottolovethisweather]

See these Somerset ensembles. We have pretty good agreement now on upper air temperatures getting down to close to -10hpa.

Add to this a significant risk of precipitation;

And your looking at a high risk of snowfall.

Looking further out, the GFS Operational was all but a mild outlier, with mean surface temperatures not going above 5c. A cold outlook, moderated at times if you ask me!

If they are from the GEFS 12z then the trend is still clearly towards colder, maybe an ICE day here and there and potential for snow on at least three occasions in the next five days.

Good times ahead, if you like wintry precipitation. Some rain, sleet and snow all in the mix no doubt. It'll be like winning the lottery as to predicting who gets the biggest dumping though.

[AWD]

The ECM offers snow into the start of next week too.

All models offer snow within T120 now. Only thing unclear is sustainment.

WINTER IS COMING PEEPS!!!!!!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest from ECM suggests Saturday night into Sunday could be interesting.

Longer term is looking different though.

Good stuff, not bothered looking past the 14th January for now, as that was where FI was suggested to be according to yesterday's GEFS 12z.

[AWD]

Good stuff, not bothered looking past the 14th January for now, as that was where FI was suggested to be according to yesterday's GEFS 12z.

Will dig out the PPN charts once the run has finished and see what it's showing.

Best potential of the winter so far coming up! (Not hard I know)!

[AWD]

SNOWMAGGEDON next week!!!

You will need a snow shovel if this verifies!

Loving tonight's output. Game on!

[Lynxus]

How we get to work next week:

[Iceberg]

Yep ECM offers alot of snow for our region sat thru to tuesday at least. Only concern for monday/tues is that the low develops too much and has too much of an active warm sector (relatively active warm sector) which would cause a few kittens for those in devon, somerset, dorset etc...

[AWD]

Yep ECM offers alot of snow for our region sat thru to tuesday at least. Only concern for monday/tues is that the low develops too much and has too much of an active warm sector (relatively active warm sector) which would cause a few kittens for those in devon, somerset, dorset etc...

Detail like that could easily change though. Positioning and intensity are irrelevant at this stage.

Exciting times ahead for us all. As usual, the further inland you are the better.

[124alex]

Yep ECM offers alot of snow for our region sat thru to tuesday at least. Only concern for monday/tues is that the low develops too much and has too much of an active warm sector (relatively active warm sector) which would cause a few kittens for those in devon, somerset, dorset etc...

so will cause rain?

[Lynxus]

Did someone break the Atlantic?

[AWD]

And Cornwall & the Sicily Isles get buried;

Great ECM run. Back to the short term now though. Looking forward to the NAE output tomorrow, and Ian's thoughts later!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0

A historical chart for the SW contingent & im sure Ian will be licking his lips at that...

S

[Iceberg]

Detail like that could easily change though. Positioning and intensity are irrelevant at this stage.

Exciting times ahead for us all. As usual, the further inland you are the better.

yep just to confirm its not being shown atm, but is a risk in my experience. Embedded cold and snow on the ground will help enourmously.

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?09-0

A historical chart for the SW contingent & im sure Ian will be licking his lips at that...

S

It is as good as gets for us Steve, would like to see it at T72 though...

[Tattooed Fox]

just been on the model thread and everyone is happy and contented with the outcome. All toys secured in their prams. Looking absolutely fantastic for most of the country. Cant wait until things are firmed up the regards to the snow fall. We can get more information on here and people are more frank about totals, so even if we do get 15cm as stated on the other side, I am sure that out local weather men will not panic people and say that. Will They?

[AWD]

Mullenders house after the ECM verifies;

[Iceberg]

ECM is not to be trusted at this range and this uncertainty, however totals of 50cm would be achieved over the course of the run for us in the SW if not more.

[fromey]

Mullenders house after the ECM verifies;

we will have to get a digging out party ready, any takers!!lol

[lfcdude]

Mullenders house after the ECM verifies;

I think he would of built a ski slope of the roof...