Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Snowfan50]

I really really hope so!!

I cant see Devon getting snow saturday except for high up on dartmoor and maybe exmoor, low level snow i dont have confidence in.

[Coast]

I cant see Devon getting snow saturday except for high up on dartmoor and maybe exmoor, low level snow i dont have confidence in.

(please don't tell her that!!)

[Mesoscale]

Need some of that snow down here in Soton!!

[MP-R]

Not from me, I'm a happy go lucky type but I would almost bet money than the SE or E gets it before you lot. More appropriately though, just like the deluges of rain, you may well now get buried in the stuff.

Haha, just not in Surrey - the country with a weather shield. I thought the SE would be a prime location for snow in late November early December 2010, but it took until the 2nd Dec for snow to actually settle in Egham where it had already fallen on 26 Nov in Bristol. It then arrived again first in Bristol on 16th Dec 2011 and again on 4th Feb 2012. Now, I keep my mouth shut about the southeast and snow.

[latitude]

Mods can we have a regional thread for this area...the SW?

[AWD]

Mods can we have a regional thread for this area...the SW?

Good point. The proper Regionals were the best!

(Sorneset?)

Edited January 9, 2013 by AWD

[TwisterGirl81]

I cant see Devon getting snow saturday except for high up on dartmoor and maybe exmoor, low level snow i dont have confidence in.

We will get snow on Sunday morning maybe and evening and for sure next week The town/city I live in is in a valley which tends to trap cold air in (like in January 2011)

[Snowfan50]

Good point. The proper Regionals were the best!

Yes, the weather from Cornwall to Bristol can be totally different, To me the south west is Cornwall and Devon, Go east of taunton and the weather changes. Edited January 9, 2013 by Snowfan50

[TwisterGirl81]

(please don't tell her that!!)

Exactly!!

[Snowfan50]

We will get snow on Sunday morning maybe and evening and for sure next week The town/city I live in is in a valley which tends to trap cold air in (like in January 2011)

Yep, if the ECM verifies snow is certainly a possibility anywhere in Devon, THough me being on very low ground complicates things even more.

[gottolovethisweather]

Crossing my fingers for a bit of snow on Dartmoor this weekend! Though I think we were the only location in the far south west who have actually already had a bit of snow already this winter (though it didn't settle). If the models start agreeing on Friday on the cold weather setting in then better start stocking up! Nobody wants to run out of food and bakki when snowed in with over a foot of snow which happened in feb 09!

Welcome aboard snowponies, stick with the knowledgeable guys n gals in here and you will find things in here most interesting.

[microclimate]

Yes, the weather from Cornwall to Bristol can be totally different, To me the south west is Cornwall and Devon, Go east of taunton and the weather changes.

I always think of the south west as Dorset Devon Somerset and Cornwall, definitely not Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. Even in Devon and Cornwall you can have marked differences of weather considering the moors and coast so I'm not sure about the east of Taunton bit. Where I live can be more like Cornwall than Dorset but you can't say the same about Wilts and Gloucs due to lack of coast.

[AWD]

It's going to be a big evening of model output in respect to the weekends events.

Whilst too early to look for precise detail (how much snow, where etc), I'm hoping we can get good agreement for the colder air to make it to us & stick with us for a couple of days. If this happens, then the probability of snowfall increases.

Won't be looking further out for now, going to concentrate on this weekend, early next week for now.

Remember, look for the depression to slide south, with the centre somewhere in the channel.

Enjoy the ride peeps!

[katemart]

Mods can we have a regional thread for this area...the SW?

Well, if that happens then they're going to have make a permanent decision about what to do with Hampshire! Usually it's included in the South-East. Oxfordshire would have to go in the Midlands quite easily if Central South Coast is abandoned altogether.

But if they keep Central then it will have to be expanded - we'll have to have Wilts off you, I'm afraid, and West Sussex, and Oxon.

But please don't break us up just for the potential snowy weather - by this time in the proceedings all us Centrallers have committed to either one side or the other and you can see the tumbleweed blowing in that (temporary) thread! Besides which, we do tart ourselves about anyway, depending on which side the predicted weather is coming from!

Hope that makes sense - I'm starting a migraine and have dosed myself up and things are going a bit woozy

[Snowfan50]

I always think of the south west as Dorset Devon Somerset and Cornwall, definitely not Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. Even in Devon and Cornwall you can have marked differences of weather considering the moors and coast so I'm not sure about the east of Taunton bit. Where I live can be more like Cornwall than Dorset but you can't say the same about Wilts and Gloucs due to lack of coast.

Yes i agree the south west can be very marginal, of course best for snow is the further east, inland and higher elevation, i just use taunton as a example as a few times i have seen thats about as far west the snow as got to and for it to be rain further west at low levels.

[gottolovethisweather]

Glorious day today after early low cloud moved away, the best day since New Years Day with plenty of bright sunshine :-) !

Yep, it almost feels like a whole year since that golden orb has been in the sky for any length of time. Hopefully, tonight/tomorrow morning will see the first Air Frost of 2013 too.

[gottolovethisweather]

Mods can we have a regional thread for this area...the SW?

Hi Lats,

The question has been raised and Paul is looking into the possibility.

For now, its eyes down for the 12zs and let's please get back to discussing the weather folks.

[AWD]

Not the best GFS output from the 12z admittedly, although we do still have a snow risk on Sunday;

Those of you looking long term ( ie sustained ). I wouldn't go into the MOD thread if I were you.

[AWD]

Monday could be the day to watch down here.

[AWD]

I could post some eye candy snow charts for Saturday night/Sunday morning but I'm not going to as these will change over time again.

[Iceberg]

I rather like the GFS 12z for the SW, the trend continues to turn more and more of the precip to snow, with north glos, forest of dean likely to only get snow under the gfs 12z, the front to stall and then a good 9 hrs of snow saturday night, sunday morning.

I want the meto to follow now.

Re longer term, ignore the model thread, this is a massive backtrack by the GFS at this timeframe.

[AWD]

I rather like the GFS 12z for the SW, the trend continues to turn more and more of the precip to snow, with north glos, forest of dean likely to only get snow under the gfs 12z, the front to stall and then a good 9 hrs of snow saturday night, sunday morning.

I want the meto to follow now.

Re longer term, ignore the model thread, this is a massive backtrack by the GFS at this timeframe.

I agree Iceberg. Up to T144 now & we are still cold, albeit more settled and dry.

Whatever happens now is highly subject to change, be it cold or mild.

Looks like its going the mild way incidentally.

Edited January 9, 2013 by AWD

[lynnsim]

Well, if that happens then they're going to have make a permanent decision about what to do with Hampshire! Usually it's included in the South-East. Oxfordshire would have to go in the Midlands quite easily if Central South Coast is abandoned altogether.

But if they keep Central then it will have to be expanded - we'll have to have Wilts off you, I'm afraid, and West Sussex, and Oxon.

But please don't break us up just for the potential snowy weather - by this time in the proceedings all us Centrallers have committed to either one side or the other and you can see the tumbleweed blowing in that (temporary) thread! Besides which, we do tart ourselves about anyway, depending on which side the predicted weather is coming from!

Hope that makes sense - I'm starting a migraine and have dosed myself up and things are going a bit woozy

I flit between this thread and the SE one too. Being smack bang in the middle I can read both threads and decide which one I like the best!

[jessandjon]

Cornwall seems to be under the green in 12z pics I want to be under the blue ;-)

[AWD]

If it is going to snow this weekend, it looks like a rain to snow event for most down here.

Midday Saturday, the UKMO lacks the upper air temperature for any snowfall;

But does have the PPN, rain at this time however;