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Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Good sign?

yes but dont expect it to happen like that its too far out dont look past 72-96 hrs just now anything past that is just the model guessing

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Liking what I'm hearing/seeing so far. Seems much better snow potential from the last few runs compared to earlier in the day.

Come on! Undercutting.....

h850t850eu.png

I've started to pick up an understanding of what a lot of the technical terms used here mean but 'undercut' is a commonly used one I've not fathomed out yet. If someone could explain, or provide a link to an explanation, I'd be very grateful.

Ravelin

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Liking what I'm hearing/seeing so far. Seems much better snow potential from the last few runs compared to earlier in the day.

I've started to pick up an understanding of what a lot of the technical terms used here mean but 'undercut' is a commonly used one I've not fathomed out yet. If someone could explain, or provide a link to an explanation, I'd be very grateful.

Ravelin

it is when a low pressure moves from north west to south east direction and goes underneath a high pressure instead of going over the top of it as it should usually do

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Liking what I'm hearing/seeing so far. Seems much better snow potential from the last few runs compared to earlier in the day.

I've started to pick up an understanding of what a lot of the technical terms used here mean but 'undercut' is a commonly used one I've not fathomed out yet. If someone could explain, or provide a link to an explanation, I'd be very grateful.

Ravelin

Flat low pressure goes underneath a block to the north, chaos ensues, favoured by our southern neighbours as it can deliver copious totals to the southwest but also very good for convective easterlies as the cold backs west to the north of the undercutting low:

archives-1978-12-28-0-0.png

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

Bit of a Glasgow/North Lanarkshire/west coast snowshield there. Typical.

Yep, you are right. I think I will move to the east :)

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted (edited)

it is when a low pressure moves from north west to south east direction and goes underneath a high pressure instead of going over the top of it as it should usually do

To add...As winds/air move anti-clockwise around a low, above it the air will be moving from E to W. Thus if a low is centred to the south of the UK, it is dragging cold air from the E (siberia, scandinavia etc) over the top of it towards us. The low in this case is 'undercutting' a cold Scandi area high pressure 'block'.

If the centre of the Low is to the N of the UK, it will drag warm air from W/SW (Atlantic) to E/NE across us, bringing mild pish.

In the simplest terms.

Edited by scottish skier
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over_the_rainbow Enthusiast

over_the_rainbow

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
Posted

I can't believe how long it took the GFS to join the party. Why was that? A signal it was missing?

(Don't think it will, but if the 12Z ECM backtracks all hell will break loose on NW.)

I'm now quietly excited about the next few days!

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Yep, you are right. I think I will move to the east smile.png

Aye. And I'm moving my beach hut to the nearest hill.

MO have issued yellow snow warnings againtease.gifand bad.gif which is probably the death knell for us all.

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Sunny Leith Community Regular

Sunny Leith

Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith
Posted

Too early though to say from 3 days away. At this point it could finish up as being 100 miles out in any and every direction.

Bit of a Glasgow/North Lanarkshire/west coast snowshield there. Typical.

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Thanks for the 'undercut' explanations, I get it now. Along the lines of what I thought it might be but wasn't sure. Given the southern bias in the MT I can also now understand why that (and channel lows) seem to be considered the holy grail. biggrin.png

Ravelin

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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted (edited)

Thanks for the 'undercut' explanations, I get it now. Along the lines of what I thought it might be but wasn't sure. Given the southern bias in the MT I can also now understand why that (and channel lows) seem to be considered the holy grail. biggrin.png

Ravelin

Aye, if Scotland is under the high pressure of a scandi extended (over us) block itself, the the E-flowing air to the south (going over the undercutting low) of it will be to our south, meaning we may be cauld, but dry, while the SE of the UK / northern Europe has the fun.

Edited by scottish skier
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Northernlights Maestro

Northernlights

Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
Posted

Frost came down at 3.30pm with crunchy grass, currently 0c. Nice frosty sunset too!!!!

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snow1975 Explorer

snow1975

Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
Posted (edited)

Just looked at the models. GFS/BOM and GEM want to bring back the Atlantic. GFS cold zonal in FI. MET at 144h looks good for another undercut and is similar to yesterday's JMA. UW144-21.GIF?11-17

J180-21.GIF?10-0

ECM has a mid lat high.

I think there'll be heavier snow showers on Tue/Wed due to better easterly and -8 to -10C uppers.

gfs-0-108.png?12

Edited by snow1975
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Cheggers Accomplished

Cheggers

Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
Posted

Am assuming the MT is one big love in at present.

Sun seemed to show itself before it set oot west. Going to need a hard frost before the snaw so it settles first time of asking, as still very wet up here.

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TinyTim Enthusiast

TinyTim

Posted
  • Location: Perth - Usually Snow Deprived!
  • Location: Perth - Usually Snow Deprived!
Posted

Well... looking good but not counting my chickens yet... Nice map LSS... good to see you can use Paint without any problems ;)

I'm just hoping you're right on about your total predictions... I'm supposed to be in Kinross on tuesday so I'm kinda hoping that it might be a struggle to get there :)

Tim

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Permission to move into Full Ramp Mode Sir ?

Go to standby, wait for confirmation by ECM before going to full ramp mode.

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Go to standby, wait for confirmation by ECM before going to full ramp mode.

...and be prepared for ignition systems failure (stall to most of us) after the GFS 00z run!

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted (edited)

Wedge ! Iceland at 96 attempting to grab the warm air pumping up.

post-7292-0-34965400-1357928619_thumb.gi

Solid set of 850 temps. Good work ECM.

Edited by lorenzo
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A Winter's Tale Experienced

A Winter's Tale

Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
Posted (edited)

Judging by the ECM rolling out......Ramp mode granted. good.gifdrinks.gif

Not quite a full ramp mode, just yet.

ECM1-144.GIF?11-0

Plenty of potential before that for snow and certainly cold temperatures - particulary over the snow-fields at night.

Edited by A Winter's Tale
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