Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[November13]

Aye, that's from the system moving down overnight Sunday into Monday. It could bring snow to large parts of Scotland. Don't be expecting a foot of snow from it but a lot of places could see a reasonable fall.

Yes at the moment it looks very light. However if it is cold enough then the frozen ground will make it stick as soon as it falls. Could get a couple of inches out of it!

What I remember from December 10. Certaianly in the East it was the frequency of these falls which built up the dramatic 28 inches I had in my garden. If we get any where near that frequency then it could be an interesting few weeks!

Edited January 11, 2013 by November13

[over_the_rainbow]

No tears allowed Kilties! Still lots to be optimistic about with the effects of the SSW still to filter down, and when the uppers are right Scotland is always in a good place to get a sly cheeky dropping! NAE still showing some -8's uppers through saturday.

So keep the faith! *

* also continue with sarcrifices, praying, snaw dances, and windae squinting!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Models usually understate convective potential, but it still looks good for through the day into the evening on Saturday, even with relatively light winds. Sunday into Monday is variable in terms of where the front and warm sector goes, though I think the general rule is that the further southeast you are the more chance of it being all snow but also slightly more chance of it being dry. After this, hard to say although looking generally below average with further threats of snow to come. Model agreement for the medium term remains poor as even GP stated so we can't really buy any further insight other than probably not mild and probably trending colder again later in the month.

[Buriedundersnow]

what is wrong with these models how can we have the GFS start off crap and the ECM so good then have them both work in to a middle ground where it was all looking good then for both of them to totally go off on one this morning and decide they were both wrong and having none of it its all a little wierd

[Guest]

The precip which cleared through the south-east this morning has now stalled or is stalling in the North Sea. The NMM has this backing west this afternoon into tonight. If it doesn't fizzle out too much then we could be looking at some snow for the east later today. FAX charts show the front dying though, so don't get overly excited unless the precip holds together.

Edit: sorry, totally IMBY post there, this is the same front which is giving precip further north too!

Second editL Meto have issued a warning for Monday, can't remember the last time such a huge warning was given for snow?!! From Wick to Dover!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by CatchMyDrift

[Buriedundersnow]

The precip which cleared through the south-east this morning has now stalled or is stalling in the North Sea. The NMM has this backing west this afternoon into tonight. If it doesn't fizzle out too much then we could be looking at some snow for the east later today. FAX charts show the front dying though, so don't get overly excited unless the precip holds together.

Edit: sorry, totally IMBY post there, this is the same front which is giving precip further north too!

Second editL Meto have issued a warning for Monday, can't remember the last time such a huge warning was given for snow?!! From Wick to Dover!!

that front off the east coast has started to beef up a little in the last hour on the met office rain radar

[over_the_rainbow]

Catch after your post, I went to look at the weather warnings and I don't think I've ever seen it over everywhere before either!! Only place missing out is NI on that. Of course though not everyone will actually get snow in the end. I guess this shows the general uncertainty about who/when/where for Monday.

[Guest]

I think it's time to release the ramps

Stuff the outlook, most places have a great chance of snow over the weekend, what more do people want?

[edo]

Catch after your post, I went to look at the weather warnings and I don't think I've ever seen it over everywhere before either!! Only place missing out is NI on that. Of course though not everyone will actually get snow in the end. I guess this shows the general uncertainty about who/when/where for Monday.

NAE uppers and 950s still all looking ok for here on saturday for a couple of cms then freezing overnight which could be good enough for sledging conditions..... only danger is the wind perhaps so weak it barely reaches us.....still confident will see at least some showers.... bit of a shame to spend my only 20min break today discovering a bit of a downgrade overall reading through here but im sure will all change again tonight.... as many say get the cold here and the rest can happen and the cold comes very soon

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

I'm guessing, yet again, we are deemed not worthy of a cold weather alert even though we're covered by warnings

[Buriedundersnow]

not a too bad forecast on bbc scotland weather there shows sleet and snow showers in the east tomorrow and then rain moving in from the north west on sunday turning to snow as it moves through and she did hint at it staying cold next week aswell

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

I'm guessing, yet again, we are deemed not worthy of a cold weather alert even though we're covered by warnings

we wont ever get any cold weather warnings on there as they only deal with england and wales

pretty typical with the way we always get treated made to feel like outsiders but they dont want us to leave the union (what a joke)

Edited January 11, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BurntFishTrousers]

we wont ever get any cold weather warnings on there as they only deal with england and wales

Why is this?

[Allyw12]

Hope tonight GFS & ECM have some upgrades, another Nov 2010 would be nice but I know I'm being greedy .

Edited January 11, 2013 by Allyw12

[BurntFishTrousers]

not a too bad forecast on bbc scotland weather there shows sleet and snow showers in the east tomorrow and then rain moving in from the north west on sunday turning to snow as it moves through and she did hint at it staying cold next week aswell

we wont ever get any cold weather warnings on there as they only deal with england and wales

pretty typical with the way we always get treated made to feel like outsiders but they dont want us to leave the union (what a joke)

Hehe - VOTE YES !

[Buriedundersnow]

Why is this?

i think this must be tied in with the enviroment agancy as they only work in england and wales i might be wrong but thats the only thing i can think of

[Cheggers]

Why is this?

As HC has said in the past, we're all seen as mountain goat herders, who were lederhosen down to -20c, so we should be used to it.

Grey heavy mist here and feeling a tad nippy. Might have to look out my long sleeve shirt.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Cheggers

[Buriedundersnow]

Hope tonight GFS & ECM have some upgrades, another Nov 2010 would be nice but I know I'm being greedy .

yeah upgrades are the only way ahead if we see downgrades we could be screwed before anything even gets the chance to get started and yeah 2010 would be great and i think we will get another winter like that if not this winter in the near future as after this winter onwards we are back on the road to solar minima and look what happened last time round and this minima is bount to be another stonker with how things have been through this maxima so i have the feeling we have alot of good winters ahead of us in years to come

Edited January 11, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BurntFishTrousers]

As HC has said in the past, we're all seen as mountain goat herders, who were lederhosen down to -20c, so we should be used to it.

Understood, however it doesn't excuse the fact Scotland, as far as I'm aware, is still part of the UK, yet the Met Office, who are a UK wide public information and broadcast service are not covering NI, Wales and Scotland when it comes to issuing these types of Yellow alert levels we are seeing for England, even though the length and almost breadth of the UK is covered in Yella..

Perhaps they have no more time or money to invest in any other regions/countries since they are too busy playing super computers and misinforming the world about global warming / climate change et al.

[LomondSnowstorm]

After the 12Z NAE I'll be getting the paint out again and doing a summary for Saturday (and perhaps an initial one for Sunday). Sunday into Monday remains tricky, and I'm still a bit wary about the whereabouts of the warm sector, but if the pattern is backed west by the 12Zs then everything will start to look rosier. Ideally for us the front will move a bit more slowly also and prolong the snowfall. Snow showers are likely to continue into Sunday morning for eastern areas though, so we could have a decent covering to start us off. I don't see tonight having much chance of being snowfall widely unfortunately, everything just looks a touch too high away from higher ground. -6C uppers I think are a bare minimum for lowland snow inland off this, -7C better and -8C does the trick for most, especially once the winds back east tomorrow afternoon. MO warning for tomorrow still stands, along with a giant one for frontal snowfall on Sunday into Monday, and after that, well most likely remaining cold with the threat of further snowfalls.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also, latest FAX chart is excellent:

Loving the west-east flow enhancing the precipitation potential for the central belt. Very snowy Monday morning that would be.

Edited January 11, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[M1245]

After the 12Z NAE I'll be getting the paint out again and doing a summary for Saturday (and perhaps an initial one for Sunday). Sunday into Monday remains tricky, and I'm still a bit wary about the whereabouts of the warm sector, but if the pattern is backed west by the 12Zs then everything will start to look rosier. Ideally for us the front will move a bit more slowly also and prolong the snowfall. Snow showers are likely to continue into Sunday morning for eastern areas though, so we could have a decent covering to start us off. I don't see tonight having much chance of being snowfall widely unfortunately, everything just looks a touch too high away from higher ground. -6C uppers I think are a bare minimum for lowland snow inland off this, -7C better and -8C does the trick for most, especially once the winds back east tomorrow afternoon. MO warning for tomorrow still stands, along with a giant one for frontal snowfall on Sunday into Monday, and after that, well most likely remaining cold with the threat of further snowfalls.

What's your opinion on how far east the snowfall from Sunday into Monday will go? It wasn't looking like it was going to reach the far east but the MO have issued basically a nationwide warning. Highlights uncertainty i guess.

[LomondSnowstorm]

What's your opinion on how far east the snowfall from Sunday into Monday will go? It wasn't looking like it was going to reach the far east but the MO have issued basically a nationwide warning. Highlights uncertainty i guess.

The fax chart I posted suggests at least some precipitation making it right through to the east coast, associated with that occlusion. Certainly the raw UKMO looks like it would make it to all areas:

If it moves further west then at least the chance of getting a convective easterly behind increases so it's very much win win, provided it doesn't move further east of course.

[November13]

Interesting most people on this forum seem to agree that Scotland is ill served in every aspect of this Union. They even exclude us from the weather forecasts sometimes. Is this one of the great Union Dividends that Mr Darling is going to try and sell us..LOL

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

On the longer term output...

ECM ensemble London mean (no Edinburgh ones available as far as I'm aware ) surface T looking quite chilly throughout.

Edited January 11, 2013 by scottish skier

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Right, away here and sign up if you're of an independent mind and you've no done so already. Take you five mins.

And/or hae a laugh aboot Darling's pish chat etc here:

http://forum.netweat.../page__st__3000

Noo back tae the snaw!

Edited January 11, 2013 by scottish skier