Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[DR(S)NO]

There seems to be so much swapping and changing going on at the moment I'm getting affa confused!

Can someone briefly give an idea of what the forecast is for the next few days,please.

Will there be any of this?

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like we are going to get an attack from both sides from the PVhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[lorenzo]

Short term, cold in place and no doubt about that, after that ECM trends to earlier 00z solution with the high flattened and elongated. As ECM does not have a Jetstream link here is the JMA at 96hrs, it is cranked up as Nick S mentioned earlier this is a result of the cold air troughing into North America and hitting the ignition switch.

This could potentially be considered FI at present at the 96 hrs range, from the image you can see the energy taking 2 paths, the high is flattened as a result of jet being too powerful and steaming lows past the Greenland shredding area, end result is a high anchored at west of UK.

Why FI at 96 ? Model divergence continues and again fun commentary, I jested we may still be here on Saturday 12z deciphering things !! Looks like we will be !

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

This could be rather interesting. Utter FI of course.

[Buriedundersnow]

well that was an ok ecm good at the start and should see some good snow with the front moving thru then into an easterly flow at 96hrs which should push in snow showers from off the north sea so all places should see atleast some snow and will be very unlucky if they dont

[lorenzo]

Don't think the ECM has a scooby doo at this point !! FI really is something else just now, very short time frame, very extreme by day 10, I propose a new title for some of this madness.

FI -RES - Fantasy Island Ridiculous Shannon Entropy.

[sn0wman]

Fax chart for Sunday night:

No warm sector - two occluded fronts sweeping across 528 dam air. Snowtastic!

Edited January 11, 2013 by sn0wman

[lorenzo]

Just what I was looking at Snowman, Fax charts awash with cold air, locations depicted match the NMM model well, this is as far out as it gets from this evening run, looking very snowy.

Over the weekend East Coast under the influence so to speak, cold pushing in Sleet>Snow, theme continues for Saturday. NMM projected colder air arriving quicker, surface charts show thicker values in situe over the North Sea at present. 528 advance westward continues steadily overnight.

Over to the toybox not to throw anything, to look out the radar and satellite stuff

In regards to the 240 ECM SS look what that run has sitting over Scandi... frigid air... if you have caught the model thread GP mentioned this is entirely viable location for the re-load of cold.. eeesh.

ECM for earlier more imminent timescale.

72 and 96 hrs, good angle on those uppers creeping over the North Sea..

When you head out tomorrow morning it will feel that Winter is Back, and after a minor nod to the Atlantic and some clear days it is going to come back again and keep coming back...

Edit - add couple of strat charts.

First from 0 hrs here is the warming pulse and 5 days later you see the mess it makes of the vortex across the polar field at 30hpa. Carved right up.

Edited January 11, 2013 by lorenzo

[Bullseye]

Interesting Ian hinting towards shift west of the upcoming snow event could this effect Western Scotland? Also are NE winds better for bonnie Scotland than Easterly winds? Thanks team

[lorenzo]

Interesting Ian hinting towards shift west of the upcoming snow event could this effect Western Scotland? Also are NE winds better for bonnie Scotland than Easterly winds? Thanks team

Don't worry Bullseye LS will be all over that and update you! Meanwhile here is the ECM temp anomaly and wind vectors at 96 hrs. Both an Easterly and North Easterly influence visible as the cold uppers are dragged across the North Sea.

It appears we are in a position where there is a slack Easterly flow creating potential from the East, also a cold pool establishing briefly and also Atlantic energy meeting cold air in the classic battleground situation. Both sides of the country can potentially benefit here, the eastern areas initially then from the West towards Monday. Other areas do better from Northerlies which are on the cards when the Greenland ridge establishes itself.

[Zenarcher]

Exactly 8 years ago today a storm hit Scotland,

Wind speeds were well over 100mph across Western parts a event I will never forget.

Anyway back to the present time looking cold for this weekend onwards into next week most places looking to have a good spell of cold snowy weather.

[M1245]

Still looking good for snow early next week?

[Norrance]

Interesting Ian hinting towards shift west of the upcoming snow event could this effect Western Scotland? Also are NE winds better for bonnie Scotland than Easterly winds? Thanks team

For convective snow showers an Easterly would cover a wider area and be much more likely to penetrate through to say the Glasgow area. NE would be cold and bring snow to the North East and perhaps SE. Any fronts / troughs would bring more widespread snow.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Norrance

[BurntFishTrousers]

Exactly 8 years ago today a storm hit Scotland,

Wind speeds were well over 100mph across Western parts a event I will never forget.

Anyway back to the present time looking cold for this weekend onwards into next week most places looking to have a good spell of cold snowy weather.

Was a real nasty one. Family of five lost.

Detailed info on how it unfolded here: http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

Needless to say "bombogenesis" was involved.

[Bullseye]

Thanks man! Did the 2010 come from route of NE winds? Is Monday event frontal or convective? Cheers

For convective snow showers an Easterly would cover a wider area and be much more likely to penetrate through to say the Glasgow area. NE would be cold and bring snow to the North East and perhaps SE. Any fronts / troughs would bring more widespread snow.

[Buriedundersnow]

any new people reading this thread this is a good place to go and watch videos where there is someone who is telling u about charts as he looks through them and can be helpfull with picking up on terms that are used through the forums

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

[Zenarcher]

Was a real nasty one. Family of five lost.

Detailed info on how it unfolded here: http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

Needless to say "bombogenesis" was involved.

Very sad indeed

I remember writing up a report on it in the history part of the forum if anyone wants to know more

[Buriedundersnow]

just posted on twitter

Tim's Weather blogâ€@timbland36

MOGREPS ensembles for 18th have 17/23 with a high to the north or east, 1/23 to the west, 2/23 with a UK high, and only 3/23 has westerlies

[Norrance]

From memory winds in late Nov 2010 were North Easterly then moved to Easterlies for a few days before becoming more variable in early December. Best snow for me [Dundee area]was from the Easterlies from 28/11 to 4/12/2010.

Mondays snow is a low pressure system coming down from the NW and hitting cold air over us.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Norrance

[M1245]

just posted on twitter

Tim's Weather blogâ€@timbland36

MOGREPS ensembles for 18th have 17/23 with a high to the north or east, 1/23 to the west, 2/23 with a UK high, and only 3/23 has westerlies

The majority with a high to the north or east then, that good for cold and snow?

[Buriedundersnow]

The majority with a high to the north or east then, that good for cold and snow?

north = yes east = depending on placement

in the east placement if it was over france it wouldnt be that cold bringing in a southerly wind but if it more toward scandanavia it would be really cold bringing in an easterly wind

Edited January 11, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BurntFishTrousers]

18z gonna be blootered again?

[edo]

18z gonna be blootered again?

ecktoed oot its nut hopefully

LS you are a legend thanks very much for the numbered chart #colourblindfriendly

[JoeShmoe]

How we looking in Embra for snaw Sun night/Mon am, ive got a flight darn sarf at 08:45 in the morning? Plus the Embra bypass to negotiate gettin there

[A Winter's Tale]

Good evening fellow kilters! After what has been a very mild start to January, finally we are now starting to see the first signs of winter of 2013. Skies should be overcast across much of the country and indeed there could be some light rain affecting Galloway, Arran, Bute, Cowal, Kintyre, Mid-Argyll, Jura, Islay, Mull, Coll, Tiree, the southern islands of the outer hebrides, parts of Ayrshire and possibly the Ardnamurchan penisula so there'll be nae chance of stargazing here tonight - hopefully over the coming weeks the skies will be generally clear as there is a decent chance of seeing the northernlights. Lewis/Harris, Skye, the north west of the mainland (south of Lochinver), possibly extending eastwards towards the northern end of the Great Glen and the highland city of Inverness could see some clear skies overnight. There's also a risk of showers for the northern parts of Lewis and both of the northern isles. Tonight, the winds should turn towards a south easterly with sub -5C uppers skirting the north sea coast of Scotland. Regarding convection from the north sea snaw machine, it's always a last minute affiar, there could be some activity overnight and I'll expect showers to feed into Aberdeenshire, northern Angus tonight and there could be signs of the precipitation starting to turn more wintry - possibly a covering on the hills around Banchory and the Angus Glens. Showers may also dance close to the east coast of the Borders, Fife but with the proximity to the sea and low elevation, the precipitation may be watery rather than wintry in settlements such as Eyemouth or St Andrews. Another sign of things about to turn wintry is that sub 528 dam air should be knocking on the door of eastern Scotland tonight. Another thing to take note from tonights weather is that there is a possibility of fog patches in some parts, possibly the borders or the glens of Lochaber. Overnight lows typically 0 to 5C, below freezing in highland glens (Dalwhinnhe probably a good spot) and in the borders away from the coast; above 5C in the northern isles.

A similar story at dawn except the sub -5C and 528 dam air are making westward progress across Alba. Dawn for Saturday morning:

0752hrs - Aberdeen, Edinburgh

0753hrs - Dundee

0756hrs - Glasgow

Lovely uppers out in the north sea!!

Sunrise:

0841hrs - Glasgow

0840hrs - Aberdeen

0839hrs - Dundee

0837hrs - Edinburgh

During the morning, most fog patches should start to clear, a few glimpses of early morning sun in some north western areas. There may well be a line of light rain/drizzle around some southwestern areas and on the high ground and away from the coast it could begin to turn wintry. There should be further showers in the east coast and these probably will be starting to turn to snow in some areas away from the sea: Angus looks good for shower activity extending into parts of Aberdeenshire, possibly reaching highland Perthsire and further showers running along the coast of the Borders and possibly extending further inland into the Kingdom of Fife in the southeasterly. Some of the conditions favourable for wintry precipiation at low elevations should continue to spread across the country.

The weather warning for snow in eastern areas is valid from 9am - http://www.metoffice...nings/#?tab=map

Possibly icy where rain falls instead

During this time, I'll be going down to Lochgoilhead for the morning and afternoon - probably likely to be dry, mostly cloudy, maybe some light precipitation that could be wintry at the Rest and be Thankful.

For Saturday lunchtime, skies probably staying cloudy across large parts of the country but there should be some sunny intervals for some of the hebridean islands and along the north west coastline. The showers affecting Lewis/Harris and the northern isles should clear out to the west. For Galloway, the Clyde islands, Kintyre and some of the southern hebridean islands, extending northwards into Ayrshire and possibly reaching the south side of Glasgow - there should be some patchy and light precipitation affecting these areas but these could have a wintry element on it - especially over the high ground. Showers in the south easterly continue to affect the east coast, pushing inland across some parts of Fife and especially Angus and southern parts of Aberdeenshire and these should at least be wintry to lower levels and certainty will be wintry over the higher ground - i.e the mountains just north of the highland boundary fault line: Angus Glens, possibly reaching Glenshee or the Cairngorms. Temperatures hovering around 1 to 4C.

The afternoon - sunset and dusk:

Aberdeen - 1554, 1642

Dundee - 1602, 1648

Edinburgh - 1606, 1651

Glasgow - 1611, 1656

Sunny intervals or clear intervals should be possible in the north west highlands - close to the coast - some of the islands, possibly Orkney, and maybe even some settlements along the Moray firth could see some clear intervals and hopefully some will be able to see a wintry sunset. There could be further patchy precipitation across the south west affecting Galloway and some of the areas surrounding the Firth of Clyde. Winds turning to more of an easterly flow with a south easterly element. Shower activity in the north sea may increase - a risk of snow showers for Angus, Aberdeenshire, northwards into Moray, parts of Fife and the borders and possibly reaching parts of Perth and Kinross. Probably falling as snow on the low ground away from the sea and in parts of Angus, locally there could be some reasonable accumilations. Maximum temperature across the nation should be 2 to 5C for most, a bit lower in some parts of the highlands.

During the evening - temperatures should begin to drop once more and it should feel distinctly chilly in some eastern areas. Skies generally on the cloudy side with some intervals and the best of the clear spells once more in the north west, some of the hebridean islands and the northern isles and possibly the north east corner of Aberdeenshire and along the Moray coast. There should be further showers in the easterly - although the activity may decrease but that can't be guranteed.

As sn0man says - snawtastic! It is likely to be first Scottish snow of 2013 as a result of our good-old friend - the north sea snow machine. It's worth following developments up to around Monday or as far as Wednesday, beyond Wednesday and it's all up in the air so the models will continue to intruige and cause despair (to some, hehe) over the weekend. But it's looking good for something a bit more seasonal.

Nice clip by Peter Gibbs of BBC Weather - What is a sudden stratospheric warming? - http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20992173

Now we know where and how the GFS gets its information from - this explains everything

And we will all sleep well tonight knowing if an arctic blast is on the way - well, according to the Daily Express from down south - that the reindeer herd at the Cairngorm mountain will be rescued if they end up on a frozen Loch Morlich.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...canada-20983118

Now it's all up to the GFS 18z. No pressure on that little fella, but meanwhile at the Met Office they will be........

And another run gone, another run gone, another run bites the dust.

EDIT: Remember folks - look at Chegger's signature and you'll find the essential Kilted Thread tool. This could come handy tomorrow. And if the models go pear-shaped, so I believe that northerlights has an alternative model to treat us with.

Edited January 11, 2013 by A Winter's Tale