Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[Benvironment]

i think this must be tied in with the enviroment agancy as they only work in england and wales i might be wrong but thats the only thing i can think of

This keeps coming up. It's because health is a devolved matter to Scotland and Wales. England chose to utilise the warnings for its councils and primary care-givers, the others didn't. Nothing to do with being ignored or overlooked or anything like that. The devolved govts just haven't enacted similar measures themselves. Wales does however request the heat watch warnings from the Met Office in the summer, presumably because they asked for it. Scotland, presumably, didn't ask for it.

[Buriedundersnow]

Essex Weather Centreâ€@EssexWeather

Several American TV networks reporting that Europe is heading into 'Victorian Era' cold spell :o pic.twitter.com/qWOwuFuc

this was posted on twitter and i hope they are correct but have to take a pinchof salt anything the americans say they tend to have a sensationalist attitude towards these sorts of things

[Buriedundersnow]

The fax chart I posted suggests at least some precipitation making it right through to the east coast, associated with that occlusion. Certainly the raw UKMO looks like it would make it to all areas:

If it moves further west then at least the chance of getting a convective easterly behind increases so it's very much win win, provided it doesn't move further east of course.

its looking good from that chart hopefully we can all get atleast a couple of inches as that moves through

[November13]

Here's Joe laminate floori's take on the winter in Europe:

Chart sources: National Centers for Environmental Prediction

wxmaps.org/html

Joe calls it “a heck of a weather period coming upâ€.

Here in Europe we’ve had a nice spell of mild weather since Christmas-time, and some of you may be thinking of getting started already on some springtime chores. Well, don’t put the snow shovels and antifreeze away just yet. Models have been converging on and are pointing to another “Beast from the East†getting poised to shock-freeze the continent.

It’s too early to say just how brutal it may get. But should a protracted, deep cold develop, then it’ll be interesting to see how Germany’s now vulnerable electricity grid will hold up. A number of institute’s have been warming that if the winter turns hard, Germany’s power grid could collapse – thanks to the huge gap in baseload capacity left by the German government’s hasty shutdown of 8 nuclear reactors in the wake of Fukushima in 2011.

Here’s the Weatherbell chart for early-mid February:

[spindrift1980]

Noo back tae the snaw!

Good for Glenshee Ski Centre but a lot of rain about elsewhere (and these charts tend to overstate the possibility of snow rather than rain, in my experience).

Hmm...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

NAE has that front comin in as mainly snaw

Good for Glenshee Ski Centre but a lot of rain about elsewhere (and these charts tend to overstate the possibility of snow rather than rain, in my experience).

Hmm...

All the very light turquoise (coming in from the E) should be snaw/wintry apart from very close tae the coast, even there at times too.

EDIT. Eyes doon for the 12Z. sofas at the ready.

Edited January 11, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, here's my summary map for the 24 hours from 6am tomorrow to 6am Sunday (before the front arrives).

1: snow possible at times, more likely later on, but more likely a mix of initial rain turning more to hail and graupel later on.

2.North Sea modification likely for the first half of the period, but major opportunities later on for a covering in any part of the region. Uppers should be ok from about 12pm onwards, and the models do tend to slightly overdo the modification in Fife but underdo it in Lothian and Angus hence slight corrections made, but this is the main action area as far as convection is concerned.

3. Weak fronts coming in from the west along with some convective potential gives the potential for snowfall, and these areas should be immune from too much in the way of modification, so mostly snow here. Not necessarily much though, but again perhaps a dusting or a covering for some.

4. Similar potential precipitation wise to the above (from the band of precipitation rather than convection though) but with less chance of it reaching here and a higher chance of it falling as sleet or rain.

5. Should be mostly dry for the western Isles but the southwest coast may see precipitation, neither is likely to see wintry precipitation though at this stage.

!. Highest risk of big snowfall totals, combination of elevation, being inland and wind direction favouring convection into these areas. Southern part of the region could cling onto convection right up to the end of the 24 hour period.

I'm not expecting huge totals we could get upwards of an inch for all of zone 2 (though potentially nothing for some as well if we see further toning down of uppers) and upwards of 4 inches into the ! zone. Elsewhere, looking very promising for Sunday, but I'll deal with that later on tonight.

[Buriedundersnow]

its already looking better over greenland on this run in early stages could be better overall with upgrades

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

!. Highest risk of big snowfall totals, combination of elevation, being inland and wind direction favouring convection into these areas. Southern part of the region could cling onto convection right up to the end of the 24 hour period.

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS 12Z almost manages to occlude the front entirely before central Scotland:

My feeling is that troughing could occur quite easily in that quasi-westerly flow behind the front too:

Secondary shortwave gives us another dumping by Monday evening:

Edited January 11, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[M1245]

Looks like a slight upgrade for Snow potential in Eastern areas. The snow seems to reach those areas at least for a time before clearing SE.

[Allyw12]

GFS 12Z almost manages to occlude the front entirely before central Scotland:

My feeling is that troughing could occur quite easily in that quasi-westerly flow behind the front too:

Secondary shortwave gives us another dumping by Monday evening:

Is this good? Sorry silly question I know

Edited January 11, 2013 by Allyw12

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS 12Z is marginal at points for those on the east coast but majorly snowy if we can stick the landing:

If we can stay on the right side of marginal there's potential for countrywide snowfall totals over 4 inches, upwards of a foot by Monday evening, and that's before a possible easterly with -8C uppers again by Tuesday.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Edit - Damn you LS!

Edited January 11, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is this good? Sorry silly question I know

It is, very, I would marry this run if I could.

[Sunny Leith]

Why wait for marriage? Just go straight to the bit that matters

And if it doesn't work out you can always kick it out of bed by the next run

It is, very, I would marry this run if I could.

[Benvironment]

It is, very, I would marry this run if I could.

Best post of the day!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Come on! Undercutting.....

Edited January 11, 2013 by scottish skier

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS 12z looking good and so is the updated met office warnings. Not as cold as yesterday with cloud cover during the night keeping the temperatures at around 3C and it reached 6C so fairly typical winter temperatures. Fairly cloudy throughout the day with a few breaks in the cloud cover but the skies are now largely clear just in time for dusk with a very wintry tint of blue and clouds with a shade of purple.

[over_the_rainbow]

Playing catch up here......

Thanks for one of your Tony Hart maps LS! Read the blurb and thought lucky buggers in the '!' went to the map and then couldn't find any '!' all lots of 1s, some 2s etc.......put glasses on and clapped! We old Perth is in the '!'. Though having said that the 12Z GFS has maybe fiddled with your map since then.

Going to look at the 12Z now

[A Winter's Tale]

Quite chilly

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Quite chilly

Jeez, -10 at fort SS.

Will take some ethanol home fae work today - gonnae need to strengthen up me screenwash.

[spindrift1980]

GFS 12Z is marginal at points for those on the east coast but majorly snowy if we can stick the landing:

Bit of a Glasgow/North Lanarkshire/west coast snowshield there. Typical.

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO is BETTER!

[Buriedundersnow]

cut off scandi high coming and artic high pushing for greenland