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Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

We need to see the PV split between Scani and west of Greenland to allow sufficient opportunity of ridging. Unfortunately the GFS appears to have gone cold on this idea for the moment.

npsh500.png

It seems to be doing it at 336hrs...

post-17320-0-18621300-1357447237_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Plot thickens...the GEM at 102 hrs is virtually IDENTICAL to the ECM 12z at 120hrs......and I mean virtually identical

GEM 0z......

gem-0-102.png?00

ECM 12z 120 hrs...

Edited by CreweCold
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Overall another good run, with -10C uppers over the south for a time starting from next weekend, hope these upgrades in the medium term are seen on the next runs, regarding the longer term, its Fi so really unknown for what is going to happen. Good night see you guys/gals in the morning!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

As mentioned by teits the pressure of the high to the north isnt that strong and leaves only a short window of time-1020mbs aint great.ukmo is better with its position but this ridging from the south to greenland is frought with danger.lets see if we get retrogression as ecm

Edited by swfc
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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

I see the Indian model NCMRWF has appeared on Meteociel,

These maps show the model data NCMRWF India. One run per day (0z) is available up to 240h. The maps are updated at 8am and have a resolution of 2.5 °. This model is derived from the GFS U.S..

It's debut run at 240 hours,

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

As mentioned by teits the pressure of the high to the north isnt that strong and leaves only a short window of time-1020mbs aint great.ukmo is better with its position but this ridging from the south to greenland is frought with danger.lets see if we get retrogression as ecm

TEITS also pointed out that you don't need massive blocking areas of high pressure to deliver the goods. The biggest snow events often come from smaller areas of high pressure rather than gigantic blocks.

GFS seems to be out on its own at the moment, my worry is that it's picked up on something and the other models are being slow on it, I'm not putting any trust into the UKMO after its early Decembers performance.

The ECM will be interesting

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

The ECM will be interesting

Either that or devastating for quite a few people if it begins to back the GFS

From what I've seen of the 00z runs thus far, the GFS looks to be out on its own. The GEM, NOGAPS and UKMO are all far better than it at 144 hrs for future potential. Let's hope when the ECM rolls out the GFS is still on it's own.

GEM at 156...

gem-0-156.png?00

GEM at 204...

gem-0-204.png?00

Edited by CreweCold
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

I see the Indian model NCMRWF has appeared on Meteociel,

It's debut run at 240 hours,

Looks ok too.will it be the the masala run this?God ive got to get a gripfool.giffool.gif

TEITS also pointed out that you don't need massive blocking areas of high pressure to deliver the goods. The biggest snow events often come from smaller areas of high pressure rather than gigantic blocks.

GFS seems to be out on its own at the moment, my worry is that it's picked up on something and the other models are being slow on it, I'm not putting any trust into the UKMO after its early Decembers performance.

The ECM will be interesting

Yes it will but ive a feeling it wont be quite as good.Maybe a watered down version
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Iceni Community Regular

Iceni

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
Posted (edited)

Got this for Saturday.

post-8078-0-54454800-1357449131_thumb.pn

Edited by Iceni
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

The latest GFS operational looks totally out of sync with it's strat counterparts and I would be very wary of anything like that. Mind you there are some cracking ensembles at T+192 with the mean looking none to shoddy.

post-4523-0-43705500-1357452493_thumb.pn

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Some stonking ensembles on the GFS. Perhaps more now showing Greenland heights which better fits the background signals.

Operational is plain daft in FI in my view. As soon as we hit low res there is only one outcome.

GFS pre 192 is very good indeed for SE with lots of snow, however it won't verify like that and anything beyond 5 days s probably conjecture really.

Still, looks very good this morning although ECM to follow.

Jason

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

I'm with Chiono on this one... It is still all about trends at the moment and the gfs 0z suite has just improved greatly! Look at the London mean...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

It's at -5 for 5 days!

You have to take what the op says with an enormous dollop of salt post 144!

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted (edited)

News flash the sunday express has no headline about the impeding cold so it is still safe from the curse ;)

Edited by Tom Jarvis
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted (edited)

A reverse snowy breakdown? - this time from mild to cold.

post-4523-0-16128800-1357453633_thumb.gi

Edited by chionomaniac
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Cracking 144 hour chart on ecm.just need the ridge in the atlantic to push north

Edited by swfc
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Cough

post-4523-0-85452800-1357454352_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-06335300-1357454392_thumb.gi

Edited by chionomaniac
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MattH Veteran

MattH

Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
Posted (edited)

Cough

post-4523-0-85452800-1357454352_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-06335300-1357454392_thumb.gi

Haha, that puts the cold cats amongst the frozen pigeons!...

In wetterzentrale format - http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Quite a chart and synoptic setup. Just hope to god the EC isn't playing with us all, but it clearly had support from the ENS yesterday and here's hoping to another good set of 00Z ENS to support it. The lack of ridging from the GFS in particular to match the EC is of some concern and the GFS does seem to be quite resilient with regards to much lower heights in and around Greenland, which, personally, I don't agree with given the expected and on-going SSW conditions.

Fascinating model watching once again, but as ever until all these 'lovely' charts are T+24hr, there's always a chance they will change...

M.

Edited by MattHugo
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

Looks like a locked in Mr Omega.

post-4523-0-92886200-1357454760_thumb.gi

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

Haha, that puts the cold cats amongst the frozen pigeons!...

In wetterzentrale format - http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Quite a chart and synoptic setup. Just hope to god the EC isn't playing with us all, but it clearly had support from the ENS yesterday and here's hoping to another good set of 00Z ENS to support it. The lack of ridging from the GFS in particular to match the EC is of some concern and the GFS does seem to be quite resilient with regards to much lower heights in and around Greenland, which, personally, I don't agree with given the expected and on-going SSW conditions.

Fascinating model watching once again, but as ever until all these 'lovely' charts are T+24hr, there's always a chance they will change...

M.

T+24 isn't too far away Matt for the initial cold wave - That is Friday - Could make for an interesting countryfile forecast later.

Lovely synoptics though!

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Fantastic ecm and the synoptics and profile are for me are near enough perfect

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