Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[Methuselah]

Other than the near certainty of cold air arriving later next week, I'd say that the protracted outlook is still as uncertain as ever?

[Ice Day]

Well if the GFS is the worst of the bunch, life is certainly looking rosy for those who enjoy a bit of cold.

[lord stratus]

True but is that the way you think this would play out considering all that is going on to the PV currently and forecast to be kicked again? I would suggest this will not be the case.

Yet again the lesser experienced members taking each output as gospel. Crazy days ahead!

[Panayiotis]

Overall another good run, which in the medium term (starting from Friday) has upgraded again! Longer term shouldnt really be looked at as the changes between runs even at 72hrs is different but in this run the longer term is looking better than the 00z.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Panayiotis

[kev238]

It seems pretty clear things are going to become much colder... Much, much colder. Other than that, detail is very elusive. However, quite often, we are reminded you need to the cold air in situ to give snow events, so we are looking like having that key component in place for a pretty lengthy period of time, even if it is not -10 upper flooding from the east constantly.

[bobbydog]

Difference in the 06Z GFS compared to the 0Z is so stark its a waste of time even looking at FI whatever it shows.

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-288.png?6

i suppose on the positive side, it shows us starkly different ways of being hit by copious amounts of snow!

[lord stratus]

What are you on about Ian.

I know very little about the PV but even I could see a big difference in the 06Z compared to the 0Z. Also the lobe of PV over Greenland actually backs W. I don't see a reorganisation of the PV,, what I do see is a split PV with one lobe over Siberia and the other W of Greenland which eventually backs W.

Teits.i know it's a forum where eveyone is entitled to their views but why on earth do you entertain posts like this with a response? Just ignore them. it'll be good for your blood pressure!

[johnholmes]

But another run that shows full reorganisation of the PV to the NW in FI even if the synoptics over Europe are different.

for those nw to this forum Ian is the stand up comic that Net Wx roll on to try and keep folks from getting too excited about cold weather!

Ian prove your point with charts please?

[MR EXTREMES]

What are you on about Ian.

I know very little about the PV but even I could see a big difference in the 06Z compared to the 0Z. Also the lobe of PV over Greenland actually backs W. I don't see a reorganisation of the PV,, what I do see is a split PV with one lobe over Siberia and the other W of Greenland which eventually backs W.

all i can say is if i had to pick the ecm looks the most realiable model to go with both gfs and ukmo show a very messy picture in later frames dont look right to me but the ecm is clean tidy with lovely greeny block not the most robust block but big and beefy but realistic.

but all models across the board show one thing cold and the amazing thing is that this really has shifted forwards.

chino in the strat thread had a date set and gp to and both have to me nailed this pretty well.

bottom line is colder weather is on the way how soon or how cold needs to get at least within t96 hrs for a more certain outlook but the ecm has very much stayed inline with it recent outputs.

and ian brown lets keep the hype for now please atleast until it dont happen, the pv what pv??????

enjoy people im going to have another look through these truely stunning outputs certainly a change is on the way.

[snowblues]

Its great to see the main theme continue.I rember seeing some days ago now, the first inital thrust of cold reaching our shores being sun 13th.So everything shunted early to the 11th,after the models caught up with the broader picture.So may be with any futher warmings, models in the latter frames now will be the norm to blow hot and cold working things out.Keeping my eye from T144

Edited January 6, 2013 by snowblues

[Timmytour]

Snow is one of the main reasons why a lot of people contribute to these forums in the winter and in the medium term this run brings good snow potential for many Western and Northern areas between +162 and +186 hours.

Not such a good run in the longer term as good old GFS reverts back to its usual default zonal pattern, but does produce several 'battleground situations' between rain and snow. However it regularly does this in its low resolution output, so I only view them to try to spot a new trend.

But worth remembering last month that the "low resolution" GFS was the first to signal the rapid end to the cold spell that seemed to have no support at the time. I find GFS , even in low resolution, can be very adept at picking up trends, if not detail early on. What we had last month was a consistent modelling of it which eventually the other models got on board with. So at the moment, it's introduced a concern that will increase with every run that continues to show it. Hopefully, not many more will.

[Bristawl Si]

All looks like we're on track for a decent spell of cold and possibly snowy weather to my untrained eyes.

Maybe not perfect synoptics but they'll do after the winter so far, in these parts.

I'm not too bothered about it being a 'classic' but something along the lines of that week in early Feb '09 will suffice for the 'starters'!

Edited January 6, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Mr Frost]

Some rather strange comments in here recently. Why are you complaining, looking for every worse case scenario possible and searching for the breakdown every given opportunity?

Most of the UK has not seen a single snowflake so far this Winter! The strat, ens and charts all lead us into a Wintry outlook at some point over the next few weeks! For the love of god if you don't like snow or cold please stick in into you're preferences section so I can then understand some of the posts in here.

People complaining about the GFS, it is still a cold run and just for fun it ends with a classic pattern locking in. If you love cold weather and currently can't be positive about it I suggest you take up another hobby.

[Ian Brown]

for those nw to this forum Ian is the stand up comic that Net Wx roll on to try and keep folks from getting too excited about cold weather!

Ian prove your point with charts please?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

10 days away and firmly FI but consecutive GFS runs have built HP over the vicinity of the UK and lowered heights over Greenland, progressing to the deep purples shown above.

[Bristawl Si]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

10 days away and firmly FI but consecutive GFS runs have built HP over the vicinity of the UK and lowered heights over Greenland, progressing to the deep purples shown above.

That's one day's chart though Ian - what about the other days either side of 16th?

[Tom Jarvis]

What time do the ensembles come out at

Ps no headline in the express about cold

[lord stratus]

What time do the ensembles come out at

Ps no headline in the express about cold

Good, they'll only jinx it!

[-uksnow-]

What time do the ensembles come out at

Ps no headline in the express about cold

They are coming out as we speak

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

Control also brings snow to us next weekend with -10 uppers enroaching much of the UK

@ 168

[Mark Parsons]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png

10 days away and firmly FI but consecutive GFS runs have built HP over the vicinity of the UK and lowered heights over Greenland, progressing to the deep purples shown above.

You must be having a laugh.........yes this maybe not so good but it is surely contrary to what you are saying.

[bradymk]

What time do the ensembles come out at

Ps no headline in the express about cold

No express headlines? its definately going to get cold then GEFS full ensemble suite out at around 11:45 but you can view them individually frame by frame here http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&ech=162 pretty cold runs in there at 162, hopefully they wont go towards the 6z op further on but the 00z suite didn't back up 00z or 06z op

Edited January 6, 2013 by bradythemole

[MR EXTREMES]

But worth remembering last month that the "low resolution" GFS was the first to signal the rapid end to the cold spell that seemed to have no support at the time. I find GFS , even in low resolution, can be very adept at picking up trends, if not detail early on. What we had last month was a consistent modelling of it which eventually the other models got on board with. So at the moment, it's introduced a concern that will increase with every run that continues to show it. Hopefully, not many more will.

its worth remembering that in this situation everything was much different totally different as in teleconnections back ground signals and were the heights were situated.

lets take todays models at face value!

in the realiable timeframe all of the models ukmo gfs ecm jma gem gefs they all show heights sinking to our south!

all show some form of blocking to our north between greenland and scandi and the position of the heights are more conductive of cold setup.

before christmas our failed attempt was mostly caused by lack of energy going under the block and the sheer size and orientation of that scandi block was not.

[snowking]

GEFS mean continues the backtrack and splits the energy:

0z:

6z:

Looking more and more like this has been a GFS wobble, though we still can't take anything for granted for a few more days

SK

EDIT: Unfortunately I hadn't realised the ensembles are on a static URL, and so both of those charts are now showing as 6z. You will have to take my word for it, much more defined split!

Edited January 6, 2013 by snowking

[Jaffusmaximus]

That's one day's chart though Ian - what about the other days either side of 16th?

True we will have all kind of charts in FI popping, its best not get too hung up on them until they are within the reliable timeframe then we can expect mild incursions and blocking break downs!

Edited January 6, 2013 by Jaffusmaximus

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png

10 days away and firmly FI but consecutive GFS runs have built HP over the vicinity of the UK and lowered heights over Greenland, progressing to the deep purples shown above.

oh yeah gfs i could swear that lastnights and yesterday mornings model runs were all very different oh and todays.

ian the cold is on its way im not intrested in the pv because background signals dont support this.

[tonbridgemole]

GFS at 144hrs looks good for next saturday....3pm kick off ??....someone blow the whistle!!

Edited January 6, 2013 by tonbridgemole