Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[lord stratus]

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

Well I know what you mean but there doesn't seem to be a single post from Ian B that isn't looking for mild.

[BristolBlizzard]

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

saying that ian b do know his stuff , i hope hes wrong as i love snow but who knows :0)

[phil nw.]

Come on people back to the models please.

[ChartViewer]

AO tanking negative

Nice height anomalies forecast NW

Edited January 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[UV-RAY]

Come on people back to the models please.

Phil can you remember which model performed better during the last SSW three years ago, I think it was the ECM?

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z ensembles

A bit more scatter on the Aberdeen ensemble than there is on the London one

[TheBigFreeze]

They are coming out as we speak

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Control also brings snow to us next weekend with -10 uppers enroaching much of the UK

@ 168

Hi there,

I'm new to looking at these models, and although I know its best to ignore charts from way out, but am i right in saying that after a brief warming between 228h and 300h we get real cold attacking us from the NW??? just trying to get use to looking at the models, so please be nice lol

[Partholon]

He may or may not have a mild bias, but mostly Ian's post are objective, as his post above shows.

yes, to be fair to him, he has been objective in his aalysis since he came back. whereas in the past he seem to delight in winding people up. interestingly what he suggests, would chime with Roger J Smiths idea of the altantic pushing back after a few days of cold, before the cold takes a firmer hold late on in the month.

[Ian Brown]

To be fair to Ian this is what happened, whether or not he is on the wind up as well is to be decided.

It would be nice to get an opinion on what he thinks will happen rather than suggesting caution.

I'm certainly not on the wind up and I'm looking for cold as much as anyone else.

I want to see GFS move towards the ECM solution but with the way the GFS has the Atlantic profile, it can't happen though of course the GFS itself is not without wintry potential for next weekend.

The other worry is that the GFS lowers heights significantly to the NW in FI and has done for several runs on the bounce and this appears to be supported by the MOGREPS according to Ian F.

Those of us who have model watched for many years will know that, generally speaking, for high latitude blocking to be achieved, you must have a solid set-up combined with 'big' model agreement and we do not have this right now.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Ian Brown

[SE Blizzards]

All will be ok because our good old friend 'Mr Swan' is back to protect us from any nasty Atlantic mild weather

[Tim Bland]

Great ensembles especially for the SE looks like it could be a decent cold spell with snow on and off. I don't mind if fronts approach from the SW at times, although risky it increases the chance of snow. Looking forward to the week ahead forecast which is on bbc 1 in 10 mins..will he make hints about next weekend? He's been getting quite excited on twitter about the potential

[The Northern Ramper]

I'm certainly not on the wind up and I'm looking for cold as much as anyone else.

I want to see GFS move towards the ECM solution but with the way the GFS has the Atlantic profile, it can't happen though of course the GFS itself is not without wintry potential for next weekend.

The other worry is that the GFS lowers heights significantly to the NW in FI and has done for several runs on the bounce and this appears to be supported by the MOGREPS according to Ian F.

Those of us who have model watched for many years will know that, generally speaking, for high latitude blocking to be achieved, you must have a solid set-up combined with 'big' model agreement and we do not have this right now.

Well Ian said it supported this of sorts so that suggests to me a halfway house.

[Matty M]

I do feel the initial Easterly is vulnerable, day 5-7 but i do feel that the day 10+ trend to a significant cold spell is more certain.

The SSW could really be the key to sealing the deal. My advice, don't go bananas if the initial easterly gets taken from us because

the longer term prospects of cold are very good.

[-uksnow-]

Hi there,

I'm new to looking at these models, and although I know its best to ignore charts from way out, but am i right in saying that after a brief warming between 228h and 300h we get real cold attacking us from the NW??? just trying to get use to looking at the models, so please be nice lol

Unfortunately it isn't half that simple, anything at the moment post say 120 hours is very unlikely to verify as currently shown by the GFS so at the moment no that wouldn't be a correct statement, look for more consistency in the future runs and hopefully falling in line with ECM or a midway point, and most importantly as a newbie if you don't understand something just read fergies posts or ask a question.

Edit: and don't take one run as a gospel!

Edited January 6, 2013 by -eded-

[Harsh Climate]

John, I will remind you of last month when the NWP picked up on the Atlantic return and you rather rubbished my assessment because your beloved height anomalies were showing blocking. We know what happened...

The MOGREPS did not back the failed December easterly, the OPs Centre was, I believe, uncertain but favoured the EC initially before the NWP collapsed the set-up.

So for anyone wanting to back the ECM right now I would advise the strongest of caution.

When it all went pete tongue a month ago the ECM failed miserably, although none of the models covered themselves in glory.

Although it's far too early to be predicting a return to mild zonality anytime soon as there just isn't enough evidence to suggest so. The chances of a lengthy period of cold wintry weather are growing by the day!

[phil nw.]

Phil can you remember which model performed better during the last SSW three years ago, I think it was the ECM?

Lol sorry SI i struggle sometimes to remember where i put my reading glasses !

Seriously they all have their moments and to be honest i think it`s best to take each new situation in isolation.

I know you can view archives NCEP charts here

http://www.meteociel...es/archives.php

but i don`t know where you could view the old ECM ones -unless someone else can help.

Edited January 6, 2013 by phil n.warks.

[snowking]

Lol sorry SI i struggle sometimes to remember where i put my reading glasses !

Seriously they all have their moments and do be honest i think it`s best to take each new situation in isolation.

I know you can view archives NCEP charts here

http://www.meteociel...es/archives.php

but i don`t know where you could view the old ECM ones -unless someone else can help.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&archive=1

Unfortunately they only go back to 2010 though

SK

[bobbydog]

I'm certainly not on the wind up and I'm looking for cold as much as anyone else.

I want to see GFS move towards the ECM solution but with the way the GFS has the Atlantic profile, it can't happen though of course the GFS itself is not without wintry potential for next weekend.

The other worry is that the GFS lowers heights significantly to the NW in FI and has done for several runs on the bounce and this appears to be supported by the MOGREPS according to Ian F.

Those of us who have model watched for many years will know that, generally speaking, for high latitude blocking to be achieved, you must have a solid set-up combined with 'big' model agreement and we do not have this right now.

to be fair though ian, you can't really compare the 'usual' model output, of which we are all aware of the pitfalls, to the current output. as i'm sure you are aware, we are at the beginning of an SSW which as well as increasing our potential for cold weather and northern blocking, throws a huge amount of uncertainty into the models. i doubt we will see much model agreement until the warming becomes well established.

in the meantime, there is some decent agreement in the earlier timeframe for a shot at cold on which the GFS and the ECM both agree-

GFS

ECM

both showing heights over scandi and an easterly at +144

Edited January 6, 2013 by bobbydog

[Highland Snow]

The BIG question for the next fortnight - Beast from the East or Pest from the West? The jury is out!

[-uksnow-]

Chris Fawkes hasn't said anything In particularly but said 'couldn't resist putting this in, some of the computer models saying high pressure to our north east bringing in a colder feed which would cause temperatures to drop well below normal' or something along those lines I couldn't type fast enough on my phone as he was saying it!

[TheBigFreeze]

Unfortunately it isn't half that simple, anything at the moment post say 120 hours is very unlikely to verify as currently shown by the GFS so at the moment no that wouldn't be a correct statement, look for more consistency in the future runs and hopefully falling in line with ECM or a midway point, and most importantly as a newbie if you don't understand something just read fergies posts or ask a question.

Edit: and don't take one run as a gospel!

Hi and thanks for your reply,

I'm beginning to get the idea that I should take anything past say 120h with a pinch of salt, and that to compare models and look for trends, and model alignment, however i'm still at a very novice stage, and just trying to get to grips with what the models are actually showing and doing, which is why I was asking is what I stated about that model correct in what I thought it was showing, as opposed to this is what I think will happen....sorry if that wasn't very clear

[Frosty.]

I may be wrong but the way I read the latest meto update sounded a lot like the Ecm 00z op run with the cold incursion from the northeast, especially by next weekend with showers turning more and more wintry and with frosts becoming more widespread, this also goes for the further outlook. At least some of the computer models are showing high pressure to the north of the uk with a much colder NEly flow and wintry weather, fingers crossed.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[swfc]

Chris Fawkes hasn't said anything In particularly but said 'couldn't resist putting this in, some of the computer models saying high pressure to our north east bringing in a colder feed which would cause temperatures to drop well below normal' or something along those lines I couldn't type fast enough on my phone as he was saying it!

He also said the outlook could become very wintry!!

[Harsh Climate]

He also said the outlook could become very wintry!!

Was that on countryfile weather at end?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well bbc week ahead, stalling front to the west as we get to WED/Thurs with heaviest precip to SW and further east along s coast on Fri This is because Pressure rises to our NE and holds the front up and some of the trough begins to slide SE. Then he went on to say that SOME computer models 'SOME' show HP building to north bringing cold E'lies....but uncertain this far out. Take from it what you will.......they aren't convinced yet but are quite interested.

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST