Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

looking from about 11 Jan and deep into fantasy world the UK could be deep in the white stuff till at lest Jan 22 at the moment

[-uksnow-]

@Snowking -

Good to see the op run a fairly big low pressure outlier, something tells me the GFS has far from got this nailed yet.

[the gas lad]

At 336hrs so should be ignored but wow!

mmm..joe from weather bell - did mention in the charts that cold for Europe then retreats and comes back could this is what he was talking about - tbh i think FI is around the 96hr mark at the mo - lots of upgrades and downgrades to come -

[Harsh Climate]

Excellent charts this morning.

The way I see it, it will turn much colder next weekend with a chance of snow wintry precipitation in all areas, chance of snow showers pushing in from the east after the weekend and the chance of something more organised pushing in from the west from time to time.

I think any easterly flow will be shortlived at first, I perhaps see a return to less cold after that as high pressure begins to retrogress towards greenland with perhaps a potent northerly or north easterly airflow their after

That's just the way I see it at the moment and the next few days are crucial to just how potent this cold spell/snap may be.

The Gfs 06z run shows the chaos being caused by the onset of sudden stratospheric warming, with a much colder spell developing towards the end of the week, then a relaxation in the cold before an even more potent blast from the east arrives, this is just the beginning, the models are in a state of chaos as they try to get to grips with a really epic pattern change to cold and very cold to help banish the memories of the rubbish we have endured in recent weeks. I think a freeze is on the way with severe frosts and snow. i would also like to mention the Ecm 00z, a very good trend for cold with easterlies and northerlies and high pressure retrogression to greenland, it's all looking very promising for coldies in my opinion.

A lovely chart but I have lost count of the amount of times that type of chart hasn't come off. Usually get a much watered down version with the -10 uppers north of scotland..

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian, we can take it that the MOGREPS supports the way the GFS is handling the Greenland situation, and then bringing back the Atlantic by around day 10 ?

Of sorts, but the point of Ops Centre preferring EC for now is telling.

[Jason M]

To me it looks like GFS ensembles are gradually giving more support to the ECM view. Gradually more of them are raising heights over Greenland. Often its messy, but that's hardly surprising really.

If GFS as proposed by the opp comes off we win, if ECM comes off we win big. What's not to like?

Jason

[IDO]

Or, of course, we could look at the very good agreement in the short range ensembles for a significant cool off of 850's

Fairly decent agreement (relative to usual SLP ensembles) for a rise in pressure into Iceland in the next 7 days

SK

Hi. I highlighted the pressure chart as that day (3/4) is when the synoptics change, ie we lose the ridging. What happens after that will set in motion the next medium term outlook. The pressure scatter suggest there are a myriad of possibilities. Of course the 2m temps and 850s head south, that shows that most of the outcomes will lead to a cooling down, with no MLB in mid Jan those colder 850s are what I would expect. The pattern change is what is significant as we can now take the general cooling as fact.

The 06z ensembles: Make of that what you can.

Edited January 6, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Bobby]

The ECM mean at +240 looks good, similar to the last two OP runs

Looking through the GFS ensembles though you can see how there's a million and one ways things can go wrong with the last few GFS OPs not without support for sure - with energy running over the top of the high. So still nothing concrete yet.

[johnholmes]

Of sorts, but the point of Ops Centre preferring EC for now is telling.

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

[UV-RAY]

Which model handled the last SSW better, I thought it was the ECM?

[bradymk]

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

I think you have quoted the wrong Ian here John

[lord stratus]

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

Well said!

[johnholmes]

nope I am pulling Ian S up and quoting Ian F from his met briefings-no error

[The Northern Ramper]

UKMO will continue, rightly, with cautious phraseology re potential outcomes of cold spell for now. Currently lean towards EC solution but as of 00z, MOGREPS not aboard (more mobile by d10 after retaining ridging). Next 2 days will be critical in terms of how public forecasts are tilted/emphasised thereafter.

uh oh, surely we can't have the rug pulled from under us two months running?

[bobbydog]

nope I am pulling Ian S up and quoting Ian F from his met briefings-no error

Ian S??

[Mark Parsons]

I think you have quoted the wrong Ian here John

Read it again, I don't think he has!

[weather eater]

Some rather strange comments in here recently. Why are you complaining, looking for every worse case scenario possible and searching for the breakdown every given opportunity?

Most of the UK has not seen a single snowflake so far this Winter! The strat, ens and charts all lead us into a Wintry outlook at some point over the next few weeks! For the love of god if you don't like snow or cold please stick in into you're preferences section so I can then understand some of the posts in here.

People complaining about the GFS, it is still a cold run and just for fun it ends with a classic pattern locking in. If you love cold weather and currently can't be positive about it I suggest you take up another hobby.

Not sure I can let this slide, this is the model discussion thread, and what maybe right about any given run and what could go wrong, and it’s not the in praise of cold/snow thread. I think you will find that most understand this and try to view the output objectively and they do that whatever their preference, 95% are looking for cold and snow in any case. In terms of the stratospheric profile, yes it conducive to us but it’s not a guarantee, we are a small island on the edge of an ocean and we frequently miss out even when things appear in our favour so discussing it is not out of place, how about a bit of live and let live.

[Ian Brown]

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

John, I will remind you of last month when the NWP picked up on the Atlantic return and you rather rubbished my assessment because your beloved height anomalies were showing blocking. We know what happened...

The MOGREPS did not back the failed December easterly, the OPs Centre was, I believe, uncertain but favoured the EC initially before the NWP collapsed the set-up.

So for anyone wanting to back the ECM right now I would advise the strongest of caution.

[TAFKAP]

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

[Buzz]

nope I am pulling Ian S up and quoting Ian F from his met briefings-no error

Don't you mean Ian B ?

[karlos1983]

can anybody advise how I upload a document, e.g. a PDF? Sorry I know its the Model discussion Forum, but it is model related.

Thanks

Karl

[Buzz]

John, I will remind you of last month when the NWP picked up on the Atlantic return and you rather rubbished my assessment because your beloved height anomalies were showing blocking. We know what happened...

The MOGREPS did not back the failed December easterly, the OPs Centre was, I believe, uncertain but favoured the EC initially before the NWP collapsed the set-up.

So for anyone wanting to back the ECM right now I would advise the strongest of caution.

15 All, new balls please.

John to serve ..........

[UV-RAY]

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

He may or may not have a mild bias, but mostly Ian's post are objective, as his post above shows.

[swfc]

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

To be fair he never actually mentioned any mild weather.his point was the pv maintaining or regrouping and bringing the atlantic in at day 10.The background signals are all against this and indeed all models barring gfs are against it.He may be wrong but i guess you stand or fall by your predictions or comments .all will be revealed in the next 10 days or so

[The Northern Ramper]

John, I will remind you of last month when the NWP picked up on the Atlantic return and you rather rubbished my assessment because your beloved height anomalies were showing blocking. We know what happened...

The MOGREPS did not back the failed December easterly, the OPs Centre was, I believe, uncertain but favoured the EC initially before the NWP collapsed the set-up.

So for anyone wanting to back the ECM right now I would advise the strongest of caution.

To be fair to Ian this is what happened, whether or not he is on the wind up as well is to be decided.

It would be nice to get an opinion on what he thinks will happen rather than suggesting caution.