South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[Gary_R_Walker]

I love reading the Model Discussion thread. The expert model watchers predict after studying all the computer output that it will be cold this winter at some point. I predict after reading the Sporting Life that a horse will win the Grand National. Pretty sure we will both be right.

[classylady]

Phew.......just finished catching up in the model thread.........I'm exhusted!!

[lottiekent]

It's awful isn't it? I need a large drink after looking in there!!

[Guest archiesmummy]

Help! You gotta help me......

First time in model thread.......

I understand there will be some kind of weather somewhere in the world at some point, I think that's the general theme :o

[Gary_R_Walker]

Would it be cruel to tell the Model Watchers that they are watching computer models day after day that appear not to be working very well? Or would that just spoil their fun?

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 12z T+144: http://176.31.229.22...2/gfs-0-144.png

GFS 18z T+138: http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-138.png?18

Small differences between the two this time around but this equals two different scenarios - 18z advects cold air from the continent to the region due to the positioning of the trough over France however this didn't occur on the 12z. Small differences but huge consequences. Undoubtedly, this will be different in the morning.

Edit: First link wasn't working so had to replace both links.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Ben_Cambs

[Sussex Jules]

Sorry John I think archiesmummy has got the forecast about right!!

[Weathizard]

GFS fantastic for us lot! Nice to be in the firing line! (If the cold comes that is)

[Steve C]

Evening all!

As we've had fairly low rainfall here, this side of Christmas, I thought I'd take the opportunity of going out for a walk, followed by a pub lunch...

Managed to get nicely muddy, so much so that I felt too embarrassed to wear my boots in the pub for the pub lunch that followed I ended up walking round the pub in my socks!

I've not been on this forum this weekend until now, but have read the model forum, after hearing about the shenanigans...

All I would say is that a couple of the senior posters there are giving a pretty good impression of having quite personal animosity towards each other. I think it reads terribly (I know a lot find it entertaining, but I don't) Maybe they should stop the sniping and instead engage in the noble art of pugilism? I'd pay money to watch it! Actually it'd undoubtedly be a very poor show, as firstly you know they'd be useless and secondly they would be lost without their handbags!

[Ben_Cambs]

Great post Ben, spot on, with a SSW in place massive changes to the vortex will confuse the models from the usual mobile westerly pattern.

Thankyou! Just got to hope in the end, that we'll be the beneficiary of these changes!

[john pike]

tomorrow

mainly dry

south westerly wind breezy but not strong

temps around 10-12 degrees

we might see some sun tomorrow

tomorrow night

very weak south westerly flow

some showery rain possible later at night

8 degrees and slight chance of fog again on the coastlines

tuesday

breezy south westerly flow

should stay dry until very late afternoon

temps around 10 degrees

mainly cloudy again

fog poss again on the south coasts

tuesday night

west north westerly flow

some showers around and could be heavy

6-8 degrees

wednesday

very weak northerly flow

staying dry and we may see some sun again

tad chillier around 8 degrees

thursday

westerly flow

poss showers very far south

around 7 degrees

misty where dry late in the afternoon

friday

weak north westerly flow

showers around throughout the day

feeling cold 6-7 degrees

[Jayces]

I go to the model thread this time of year when I need cheering up, it's like a soap opera :-)

As far as I'm concerned it's going to get colder from Wednesday and snowier from the weekend.

Well that's what the GFS 18 shows, will be different again in a few hours ;-)

[john pike]

heres my forecast for tomorrow

gfs will be gloomy in the morning

maybe some brightness by lunchtime

gloomy again by tea

then really pleasnt in the evening

[john pike]

ramp chart easy tonight

from the main gfs run

[Lampostwatcher]

Yes !

The GEFS ENS are looking cold

[john pike]

still agreement of cold starting on the 12th

gfs main run is one of the warmest runs from the 12th to the 14th

the biggest spread is the 14th so fi is then

detail still need resolving but still looking cold to me

[Lampostwatcher]

still agreement of cold starting on the 12th

gfs main run is one of the warmest runs from the 12th to the 14th

the biggest spread is the 14th so fi is then

detail still need resolving but still looking cold to me

the server would crash a few years back if they were showing that lol

[lottiekent]

Has the Saturday snow fest disappeared? Now looking at Sunday on John's ramp threads...

[john pike]

hi lottie

so much is chopping and changing

expect the cold air to arrive saturday

the detail still needs sorting

however heres a proper ramp chart

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=323&y=152&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=0

have a click through these

go to bottom

look at 00z

then 06z

then 12z

then 18z

look at the black thick line and see how different that main gfs run has been today

the model is struggling

the warmest throughout today was the 12z

gonna be fun tomorrow

Edited January 7, 2013 by john pike

[80sWeather]

Yikes the turtle from the err....East is coming!

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

It feels much cooler here this morning, 6.8 °C right now and it's still dark - I have no idea why I'm awake a good hour before I need to be on my day off so I'm considering going back to bed, I probably won't get back to sleep though !

Managed to get nicely muddy, so much so that I felt too embarrassed to wear my boots in the pub for the pub lunch that followed I ended up walking round the pub in my socks!

At least you were in your 'Sunday best' and they didn't have holes in...that would have been embarrassing

Edited January 7, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Coast]

Morning all,

Some encouraging signs from GFS now developing, depending on what you are looking for:

Oh yes please!

[Coast]

Horrible light drizzle out there today, the sort of thing where you can't get the speed/intervals of the windscreen wipers just right!

[Lauren]

Horrible light drizzle out there today, the sort of thing where you can't get the speed/intervals of the windscreen wipers just right!

Gah! That dives me mad. I normally end up shouting at my wipers. I'm not normal, am I?