South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[Coast]

when do you think the reliable frame is at the moment?

Honestly? 1 - 2 days beforehand maybe. Snow is a tough one to call and really we can all look at the models, charts, ensembles, seaweed, pine cones and seagull droppings - it will, mostly be down to radar and this technical device:

No i ment when is the cold due to arrive

Sunday for us I guess:

Edited January 7, 2013 by Coast

[lottiekent]

Still all over the place. Plenty of time to go yet before zero or hero

Thank you Horrible being at work where I can't access anything weathery!

Edited January 7, 2013 by lottiekent

[afcone]

GFS 12Z still going for some snow on Sunday evening / Monday morning. It's still marginal though...

[Coast]

Can I be greedy and hide these ones to use on Monday then please?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So back end of this weekend could see some "proper" snow for our region...AT LAST!

[Coast]

So back end of this weekend could see some "proper" snow for our region...AT LAST!

I think it's interesting to read what Exeter's advice is (via Ian Fergusson) on the possible effects of the recent SSW. This weekend could be just the hors d'oeuvres:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2468164

Edited January 7, 2013 by Coast

[Sussex Jules]

So back end of this weekend could see some "proper" snow for our region...AT LAST!

Coast quick get out your snow magnet we don't want those "northerners" to get all our snow

[Coast]

Coast quick get out your snow magnet we don't want those "northerners" to get all our snow

Don't panic yet Jules. There's some encouraging signs developing and I'm sure you'll be taking those dogs into a very snowy copse before long!

[shotski]

I think it's interesting to read what Exeter's advice is (via Ian Fergusson) on the possible effects of the recent SSW. This weekend could be just the hors d'oeuvres:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2468164

Yes interesting that the Meto think the current charts, to day 10 at least, are not ssw related and any 'REAL EVENT' is yet to show.

Interesting stuff

[Sussex Jules]

Don't panic yet Jules. There's some encouraging signs developing and I'm sure you'll be taking those dogs into a very snowy copse before long!

But but but I want more!!!! Seriously though I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground with this one what will be will be.

[snowbob]

With all these new signs of cold and hopefully snow in the near future

I have to say that IF this comes off this time

It has also been an excellent forecast from our very own John pike who has been posting about this since october

He has always stressed winter will not start till second week of jan

Edited January 7, 2013 by snowbob

[Gary_R_Walker]

New day, new forecast. Just can't keep up.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Gary_R_Walker

[shotski]

Take a look at this 500mb chart for the middle of January.

It shows strong Hights over Greenland and a very blocked pattern.

Add to this the affect of the ssw and we have the potential for a severe period

of weather.

Just got back from the Alps so have not been on here in a while but all looks good

[john pike]

Sanity update on the mod thread

Safe to enter dummies still in prams

Ha ha

Fax tonight will be interesting

[Reefseeker]

Sanity update on the mod thread

Safe to enter dummies still in prams

Ha ha

Fax tonight will be interesting

It is always nice to get your sensible analyses, as the model thread just throws way to much at the non-model reader at the moment - and I say that as a long-term lurker around the MDT and Strato Temp Watch. So thanks:)

Trying not to get excited, as snow is getting tantalisingly possible as each day passes; attempted to convince husband to buy a super-duper sledge in Clas Ohlson this afternoon but he was having none of it. But at least a change to colder and frostier now looks pretty certain, which as posters have said will be a welcome change from damp and grey.

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

More agreement on the cold starting on the 12th

Fi starts on the 14th

That will be the difference between a cold spell and a cold snap

[john pike]

ecm looking very good tonight

lovely

[john pike]

gfs at 144

getting closer for these 2 to match

more runs needed but getting there

[Suburban Streamer]

ecm looking very good tonight

lovely

yes nice to see gfs and ecm agreeing on the -8 uppers, unfortunately too far out to get excited yet - as you say, more runs needed.

couple of snow charts - just for fun of course....

and ecm 12z for next monday

Edited January 7, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Ben_Cambs]

A few model comparisons of the three main models between 96-144hrs :

T+96:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

The main three are all broadly similar at this timeframe with regards to the positioning of the Scandinavian High and activity in the Atlantic.

T+120:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Perhaps more similarity between the main three models at this timeframe compared to last night's model set - they send the energy south at this timeframe whereas a couple of the models did not last night. This a key component in advecting the colder air from the continent, as well as the HP cell over the Scandinavia region.

T+144:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

With the energy from the previous timeframe pushed south of the UK, all three models do bring some form of a ENE'ly/NE'ly component to the weather. ECM and GFS are slightly different to UKMO which builds links the Scandinavian HP to the Azores HP at T+144, however unlike last night's model set which offered totally different solutions at this timeframe, some form of agreement of an easterly component to our weather by the end of the week. After this timeframe, the models diverge significantly, which is to be expected.

So from what I gather from tonight's models including the ensembles, is that an incursion of colder air from the continent is increasingly likely at the weekend, with much colder temperatures than of late and even the risk of wintry precipitation and frosts. How long this lasts for is still up in the air. It must be stressed that as demonstrated by today's output again is that nothing is set in stone (between 0z and 12z output) and that the model output is still volatile. It wouldn't be suprising to see more changes to how the weekend is modelled over the next couple of days.

[Dan the Man]

Looks like I'm in a prime position here in Luton. 5-10cm?

[mulzy]

Think we need temper our expectations. It will get colder, seasonal avearge temperatures during first part of the weekend and possibly colder than average sunday/monday. Any talk of snow is a little premature - let the models settle down.

Edited January 7, 2013 by mulzy

[john pike]

The fax chart tonight will show saturday

Tomorrow sunday

Wednesday monday

Follow the fax updates now to save your sanity

I am still going for something wintry sunday. More interest for monday.

Just to point out if we get -8 uppers on monday temperatures will struuggle to get above freezing

These are my thoughts and will update later when fax for saturday comes out :-)

[shotski]

The fax chart tonight will show saturday

Tomorrow sunday

Wednesday monday

Follow the fax updates now to save your sanity

I am still going for something wintry sunday. More interest for monday.

Just to point out if we get -8 uppers on monday temperatures will struuggle to get above freezing

These are my thoughts and will update later when fax for saturday comes out :-)

Hi John

Was just wandering what data the meto use for their fax charts ?

ukmo is the obvious choice along with ECM but they also now have their new super computer, mogreps in high

resolution. Apparently Mogreps was showing a far more westerly type flow this morning for the weekend with heavy

rain in the south west, as you say will be interesting.

[john pike]

Hi shotski

The fax charts have human input added to the ukmo charts

Have seen these look quite different in the past. As you say gonna be interesting to see how they handle this situation.