South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[mishy]

Been lurking in the model thread today whilst pretending to do some work.

Think the place will explode when the 12z's roll out

[Coast]

I know its so wrong for so many reasons (subsequent runs, so far out, only one model) but the GFS 12z is rolling out right now. Dare I go look and post some simple overview charts for us to get emotional about???? :ph34r:

[chilly milly]

Yeah I dare you Coast.

[Sussex Jules]

I know its so wrong for so many reasons (subsequent runs, so far out, only one model) but the GFS 12z is rolling out right now. Dare I go look and post some simple overview charts for us to get emotional about????

Do it do it do it

[chionomaniac]

What are the odds on a lot worse GFS 12Z, slightly better UKMO and a lot better ECM just to keep those coasters rolling?

[Coast]

What are the odds on a lot worse GFS 12Z, slightly better UKMO and a lot better ECM just to keep those coasters rolling?

Better than you can get for the UK to win Eurovision this year?

[Reefseeker]

I know its so wrong for so many reasons (subsequent runs, so far out, only one model) but the GFS 12z is rolling out right now. Dare I go look and post some simple overview charts for us to get emotional about????

Only if you post that photo of shirtless 'you' again when you do!

[Coast]

Only if you post that photo of shirtless 'you' again when you do!

Just short while now until the important time-frame is published......

[Robbie Garrett]

I'm going to try and ignore the press coverage, as it's exactly what we don't need - a big hype with so far too go yet.

They are clearly ramping up the hype, the Met Office will obviously in this case not come on board till it's near 100% certain. They don't want EGG on there faces...

In a Word

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSS!

Not buying into the ECM at all, it performed disgracefully in December, probably the worst I have ever seen that Model Perform in 10 Years on this site!

The thing that worries me most is looking back to the december 2010 spell, the ECM Was the last to buy into that record breaking spell but the METO Was firmly into it from about November 10th If I recall!

Really need the UKMet to come onside, not so worried about the European at present.

Paul, are you ramping? HAHA! There response to this exact question was that they believe the GFS is overdoing it.

[lottiekent]

Fingers & toes crossed this is a good run!

[Floatylight]

Seriously looking at that low coming in and the cold coming in quicker on the 12 z run!!

Interesting!!

[Sussex Jules]

Seriously looking at that low coming in and the cold coming in quicker on the 12 z run!!

Interesting!!

Certainly seems to be.

[Snowangel-MK]

Seriously looking at that low coming in and the cold coming in quicker on the 12 z run!!

Interesting!!

is it, oh.....

[Paul Sherman]

They are clearly ramping up the hype, the Met Office will obviously in this case not come on board till it's near 100% certain. They don't want EGG on there faces...

Paul, are you ramping? HAHA! There response to this exact question was that they believe the GFS is overdoing it.

I wish I had the balls to do a LRF At the end of October as I have been telling all the Yummy Mummies down the school that any appreciable snow this winter would be the 2nd half of Jan and February.

But part of me just does not trust this winter, all the mums at the moment are picking up on the press about the upcoming visit of polar bears floating across the North Sea on Icebergs, my response is nothing is set in stone yet.........how many times are we going to get burned with the models. I think the way to go this winter is if it is not within T72 Then do not discount the unthinkable!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[Coast]

Right, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Will you please remain seated at all times, make sure the lap brace is fully locked and your arms are kept firmly on the inside of your carriage throughout the ride..

Let's start with a dusting for the the North of our region on Saturday:

Then when you're pleased with that, brace yourself for this:

More rolling along shortly!!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Coast

[lottiekent]

Right, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls. Will you please remain seated at all times, make sure the lap brace is fully locked and your arms are kept firmly on the inside of your carriage throughout the ride..

Let's start with a dusting for the the North of our region on Saturday:

Then when you're pleased with that, brace yourself for this:

More rolling along shortly!!!

I could kiss that second image!

[Coast]

OMG (as modern text parlance goes) how about a full on snow day Saturday anyone?

Right the way into Sunday????

I'll see you and raise you 100!!!!

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 12z T+120:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010812/gfs-0-120.png?12

GFS 06z T+126:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013010806/gfs-0-126.

Stronger easterly flow on the 12z, helping to drag -10 850's to the region. Liking the potential for snow on Saturday!

[Floatylight]

cold much further west on this run.likey lighty!

[Coast]

Liking the potential for snow on Saturday!

[nanu]

Hold on.. dont get too excited yet. These models have been a disaster this winter showing us a beastly easterly in december which fizzled to nothing.. and now the 12z is showing us a snowy scene for saturday!! i wouldnt trust its saying till thursday at the earliest.. and even then it maybe all in the west.

[Bluebreezer54]

........... looks so pale this time of year!

Don't we all

[Coast]

If this run pans out anything like the detail shown here, it could snow in the Southern and Eastern part of our region all weekend. I can only stress the big caveat - COULD

heavy at times:

Still hanging on into Monday morning in the far East (Kent, not China!!)

[chilly milly]

Squeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!

For snow potential.

[Sussex Jules]

All good fun and all that but boy oh boy if that came off!!!