Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Stu_London]

I like to view the GFS Ens whilst wearing a mankini

you as well - weird

[Summer Sun]

As I said last week, I really think that we are looking at dry or dryer episode now for weeks even months.

The models, all models in my opinion do seem to be showing this for a great deal of the country. With none showing anything zonal.

Therefore, as temperatures fall next week, any precipitation of the solid kind wont amount to much. But as I indicated last week the southeast will be the place for the coldest air and the highest precipitation in the form of showers or frontal as the arctic front slips south down the North Sea.

I agree with you there the rain we are getting now is thankfully lighter and more patchy more importantly its moving though quickly and not stalling

The ensembles are looking a hell of a lot drier than they did at the end of last year

[Cheshire Freeze]

I like to view the GFS Ens whilst wearing a mankini

I like to view them whilst eating spaghetti, safe in the knowledge that my spaghetti often shows more organised trends than the ensembles do.

You can stuff your multi million pound computers....it's all in the spaghetti

Looking at this, there's definitely a cold spell on the way...

Edited January 7, 2013 by CreweCold

[Timmytour]

As well as SSW....any chance this might be playing a role?

http://photoblog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/07/16393294-awakened-from-its-slumber-russian-volcano-rumbles?lite

[TAFKAP]

I like to view the GFS Ens whilst wearing a mankini

I like to view them while wearing a raspberry beret, the kind you buy in a second hand store.

[legritter]

iv been stuck in bed with flu ,but feeling a bit more cheerfull now after this mornings Modell runs . looked in on forum last night but i got hit by a LOW flying dummy ,im glad todays data etc is more to our liking .looking at fax charts and GFS IT CERTAINLY is looking very interesting for this weekend ,a real mix up and that for me is where i like to be .cold air knocking on our door and weather fronts around and at this stage in the proceedings many possibilities to talk about and to hope for .it all depends on your location so lets hope we all get a bite of the cherry . how long any cold period lasts i think at the moment with so much going on across the poles and arctic will be very hard to judge untill things become more locked and lets hope we are in the right position . we are due a hit i think looking at past historical weather logs ,heres hoping ,off to watch the GFS Show ,cheers .edit quote from bristol paper 17th /18th JAN 1947 ,BRISTOL ZOO VERY BUISY ,V MILD TEMP BRINGS THOUSANDS OUT ,THE WORST OF THE WINTER COULD BE OVER ,CHEERS GANG .

[Yarmy]

Afternoon, all. Sometime lurker, first time poster here.

Very much a newbie, but found this link while looking for Strat model stuff:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00097.1

Only an abstract - the full paper is behind a paywall - but does it mean we should perhaps give the GEM more love when dealing with the current SSW?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I like to view them whilst eating spaghetti, safe in the knowledge that my spaghetti often shows more organised trends than the ensembles do.

You can stuff your multi million pound computers....it's all in the spaghetti

Looking at this, there's definitely a cold spell on the way...

Looking at the spaghetti mean, i would say a little on the Al dente side

[Timmytour]

Scandi high getting stronger?

[MR EXTREMES]

As well as SSW....any chance this might be playing a role?

http://photoblog.nbc...no-rumbles?lite

we get a strong easterly were get gray snow weird lol.

might help lower temps by a millionth of a degree that will help watch the models react to this forget the ssw event haha

Scandi high getting stronger?

not sure the gfs is not coming out yet.

[Met4Cast]

we get a strong easterly were get gray snow weird lol.

might help lower temps by a millionth of a degree that will help watch the models react to this forget the ssw event haha

not sure the gfs is not coming out yet.

It's out to T96..

Low to our West is slightly stronger

[Lampostwatcher]

Looks good so far t-96

[Weathizard]

Have a feeling this run is going sour already, lower heights over Greenland, atlantic penning that low pressure in again.

Normally when we say this things turn out well later on in the run

[EML Network]

Is the low out to the west, going to undercut on this run ??

It's taking it's time on this run, early days but it's a tad further North on this run and seems to strengthen, this could go either way, but I have an impending sense of doom

[Wilxy]

In the end that low to are SW takes the same coarse and better heights trying to link up to the scandi high.

EDIT only downfall so far is less heights near greenland,

Edited January 7, 2013 by TomW

[Snowman.]

There can be a full on SSW and we can still be in a Westerly flow so totally disagree.

Yes, but I'm talking about how the models have taken things atm we might aswell just stare at the T0 and make are own predictions.

its a day after the initial SSW and so I would suspect the models make become even more distressed as they may have to back track a bit and the time gets closer.

[jethro]

Is the low out to the west, going to undercut on this run ??

It's taking it's time on this run, early days but it's a tad further North on this run and seems to strengthen, this could go either way, but I have an impending sense of doom

I'd get some ointment for that quick before it spreads....

[Troubleatmill]

Afternoon, all. Sometime lurker, first time poster here.

Very much a newbie, but found this link while looking for Strat model stuff:

http://journals.amet...WR-D-11-00097.1

Only an abstract - the full paper is behind a paywall - but does it mean we should perhaps give the GEM more love when dealing with the current SSW?

Howdy Yarmy mmmmm could be? perhaps GP or CH could tell us whether this info is already used by the GFS/ECMWF? certainly adds more credit to the GEM which is already a good model in itself Edited January 7, 2013 by Nick JB

[bluearmy]

Afternoon, all. Sometime lurker, first time poster here.

Very much a newbie, but found this link while looking for Strat model stuff:

http://journals.amet...WR-D-11-00097.1

Only an abstract - the full paper is behind a paywall - but does it mean we should perhaps give the GEM more love when dealing with the current SSW?

indeed, but all the op models go to the top of the strat now. ensembles less clear ???

Looks good so far t-96

no it doesnt.

small changes make bigger differences later. they may work out for us but in the short term this is worse than the 06z for cold

EDIT: although the orientation of the high is better for advecting the lower uppers so we'll see

Edited January 7, 2013 by bluearmy

[Stu_London]

the main material difference is the low over Ireland looks a bit stronger and more organised on the 12z - might develop more a mild sector and make any weekend event more marginal for some.

Not sure what impact further on - but looks a key player on this run

[Weathizard]

the main material difference is the low over Ireland looks a bit stronger and more organised on the 12z - might develop more a mild sector and make any weekend event more marginal for some.

Not sure what impact further on - but looks a key player on this run

Well if it dives south/SE I though, bigger low, better undercut?

[Timmytour]

i don't know whether I want a brief period of winter in the short-term or would rather wait a bit longer for a more sustained dose.

My mate Freddie Mercury says he wants it all, and he wants it now!

[Wilxy]

Im finding these models really fasinating at the moment very exciting to watch with changes still happening in the short term.

[bradymk]

Well if it dives south/SE I though, bigger low, better undercut?

Also a bigger warm section i would of thought

[Stu_London]

actually it seems to look the same as 06z by +120 and heading same direction.

Lower pressure over greenland but heights the roughly the same.

AZ high looks like it wants to ridge NE rather than N which is probably not positive.