Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[tight isobar]

Bang

. It does,nt realy get better than that, for uk on 6z. The all impotant turning, point in regards to cross agree???

[Ian Brown]

Good to see the GFS remain consistent but this is now a critical – if the battle can be won with the jet to the NW at days 6-8 then what FI shows is what probably what the reward is.

Here there is just enough heights to repel the Atlantic in the crucial timeframes – the ECM completely lacks this height extension.

Circa January 17 could be bitter with heavy snow or very mild with heavy rain – quite possibly one of these extremes rather than something in the middle.

We must continue to favour the ECM solution as more likely and I think the METO will too.

[Southender]

Pfff.

You couldn't ask for better charts.

Just when you think the cold is about to lose the battle another mid atlantic ridge pops up and heads off to Greenland giving us another reload from the NE.

UK CLOSED!!

Wonderful to look at. But of course likely to be quite a significant outlier.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Shrimper

[Timmytour]

Would like that Atlantic swan to be flying north west rather than north east to give a wider coverage of cold for us...but not a bad run..

[garbagebags]

. It does,nt realy get better than that, for uk on 6z. The all impotant turning, point in regards to cross agree???

oh but it does BANG BANG!

[bluearmy]

i think its safe to say that the consequences of the SSW are now playing out in fi hemispheric output. many parts of the mid latitudes are going to be 'hammered'. anyone notice the 506dam around T300 ?

[Methuselah]

Howzat?

Bloody marvellous!

[Stu_London]

This is the stellar run I was predicting. Absolute porn for cold lovers. What was interesting is that 0z wasn't that far different in FI

[SMU]

Another GFS run- another pressure build in exactly the right place-

The stella charts starting to appear in high res- ANYTHING close to these & someone will get a good load of snow....

S

[mcweather]

Pfff.

You couldn't ask for better charts.

Just when you think the cold is about to lose the battle another mid atlantic ridge pops up and heads off to Greenland giving us another reload from the NE.

UK CLOSED!!

Wonderful to look at. But of course likely to be quite a significant outlier.

outlier or trendsetter?. certainly sits well with the possible influence later in the month of ssw propagation into the tropospheric pattern.

[Hammer]

Looking at GFS 06z from about T60 hours onwards we (somewhere in UK) enter -uppers. At times -8 uppers for many and then up to about T190 similar for many, occasionly looks like -10 uppers on the very most Eastern point in East Anglia. After T190, from T264 it suggests majority of UK being covered by -12 uppers. I appreciate uppers are not everything. But certainly would seem to be more favourable to colder conditions and then snow.

[weather eater]

Unfortunately, particularly for the toy department, after a stonker of a run like the 06Z, I fear that the only way is down?

There could be a lot of moderators fielding at silly point, this afternoon!

Short leg, short fine leg, silly mid on and off as well, that was an insane run.

[memories of 63]

Well everything from here will be a disappointment. It can't get much better than the 06z for cold and snow! I really tink this will be destroyd by short waves though as all the really juicy stuff is still in FI.

[Alexis]

I think it's becoming clear that the first (weak) bubble of high pressure over Scandinavia is of no worth to us - it all boils down to whether we can get a second inflation of heights, this time over Greenland, and more substantial.

I think we'll probably see more wild swings in the next couple of days as the models say yay or nay to this during runs. As it's beyond 144, it's also a bit tricky tell whether the UKMO would go with the northern blocking for the time being.

[Southender]

outlier or trendsetter?. certainly sits well with the possible influence later in the month of ssw propagation into the tropospheric pattern.

Well, lets hope it is the trendsetter.

If it ends up anything like this 6z run, then the UK is in trouble. We are not prepared to deal with such extreme weather.

I think it is unlikely to be quite as severe as this run. But a watered down version is of course quite possible.

[camiscool]

everyone saying it cant get any better from here whilst last nights 18z was the same as here it could be a trend?

[Backtrack]

oh but it does BANG BANG!

This chart is quite obviously a mild outlier.

On a serious note though, there's no chance of a chart like that verifying, as good as it looks I feel that any major cold will be coming from a northerly direction, rather than an easterly one.

Good set of charts from the 06z's, although the only way is down!

[Anti-Mild]

There is the possibility that the 6z is an outlier, however can you imagine the pandemonium in here if 12z continues down similar lines? Then the ECM 12z follows suit?

As SM says, that's 2 runs in succession showing a similar output in the far reaches of FI - it seems that the effects of the SSW are starting to be factored into the outputs.

[memories of 63]

If this comes off England will definitely be closed

[garbagebags]

There is the possibility that the 6z is an outlier, however can you imagine the pandemonium in here if 12z continues down similar lines? Then the ECM 12z follows suit?

As SM says, that's 2 runs in succession showing a similar output in the far reaches of FI - it seems that the effects of the SSW are starting to be factored into the outputs.

Imagine the caos if they kept upgrading until we had purples on the uppers over the UK! hahaha

[Stu_London]

There is the possibility that the 6z is an outlier, however can you imagine the pandemonium in here if 12z continues down similar lines? Then the ECM 12z follows suit?

As SM says, that's 2 runs in succession showing a similar output in the far reaches of FI - it seems that the effects of the SSW are starting to be factored into the outputs.

Also the 0z GFS wasn't an outlier, it was part of a cluster of colder runs - some of which were colder and snowier.

I would expect the -6z ensembles to take a similar route - no doubt it will be one of the coldest members - but it will have significant support.

[bluearmy]

please dont underestimate the importance of the scandi high over the weekend. everything is interconnected. no high would mean the jet doesnt head se across us. that changes the atlantic profile. it may not look as though it will do much good but its all part of a complex jigsaw of thermodynamics ! (and it isnt clear that it wont bring w/end snowfall yet)

[chionomaniac]

Just checked on the 6Z GFS - I think we have just drawn a number of Aces from the shuffled pack!!!!

[Timmytour]

Atlantic, Bartlett, Early Spring, Zonal, Faux Cold.....your boys took one hell of a beating!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Timmytour

[AWD]

Just checked on the 6Z GFS - I think we have just drawn a number of Aces from the shuffled pack!!!!

Yep, lets see if we have any left in the pack later.