Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[karlos1983]

Fantastic ECM so far, that's my evening sorted, I will be online all evening now!! :-)

[lord stratus]

Thank the lord for that! The SW behaves itself on the ECM again, now lets hope the GFS continues its backtrack and the other models stick to their guns...

Beautiful chart once again

Your welcome

[kumquat]

It's fair to say that ECM is *very close* to going pear shaped for coldies post T120 ... a word of warning!

Explanation...or you're trolling...

[cooling climate]

No wonder the GFS gets so much flak its been steady as a rock up

until last night with the ECM coming on board tail between its legs.

Yet now lol the GFS has reverted back to what the ECM was showing a

couple of days ago and now its the ECM that is rock solid in its

output with the GFS about to play catch up.

Fantastic run again by the ECM and no doubt in my mind what the

weather is going to be like over the coming week.

Winter is definitely on the way.

P.S. Remember them snow shovels.

[Cheese Rice]

Alot of drama llama on the models this morning really glad to see the UkMO and ECM sticking to its guns. Hopefully we'll see the gfs 18z backtracking.

[johnholmes]

Fantastic ECM so far, that's my evening sorted, I will be online all evening now!! :-)

one version

[johnholmes]

It's fair to say that ECM is *very close* to going pear shaped for coldies post T120 ... a word of warning!

second version

[stainesbloke]

What a fantastic run im now pretty sure there will be another upgrade on gfs tonight! Cant wait for that now!

Bit premature, really. ECM t120 is finely balanced and could well change drastically after that. Hoping it won't but good to be cautious.

[Bonjangle]

do you think that if it does snow that it will come to wales as i saw earlier that wales and south would miss out.

Oh yes for defo , dont worry about that FF

[Continental Climate]

Not bad http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif!! would like to see heights to our north a bit more robust!! Still its 168 so it will change quite radically by the 00z

[Buzz]

It's fair to say that ECM is *very close* to going pear shaped for coldies post T120 ... a word of warning!

Not even close - look at the temps, direction of windflow, heights up north, etc.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Buzz

[The PIT]

ECM snow fest for many the further it goes into FI. Just hope GFS returns to the party on the next run. Much better having them all on board.

Edited January 9, 2013 by The PIT

[Wilxy]

No wonder the GFS gets so much flak its been steady as a rock up

until last night with the ECM coming on board tail between its legs.

Yet now lol the GFS has reverted back to what the ECM was showing a

couple of days ago and now its the ECM that is rock solid in its

output with the GFS about to play catch up.

Fantastic run again by the ECM and no doubt in my mind what the

weather is going to be like over the coming week.

Winter is definitely on the way.

P.S. Remember them snow shovels.

Or in fact the GFS has picked up on a slightly milder trend, i await the 18z with big intrest, if it still goes with what the last 3 runs showed then u can't disgard it.

[AWD]

Party pooper of the day goes to the JMA;

[Mucka]

Good agreement from 3 of the main models with GFS and JMA still reluctant

Have to favour a prolonged cold and snowy spell.

[Ian Brown]

It's fair to say that ECM is *very close* to going pear shaped for coldies post T120 ... a word of warning!

Yes, it's still too horribly close at the key timeframes.

[johnholmes]

re the posts I've picked up-Is it any wonder new folk get confused, Ive just looked at the ECMWF to 192 and can see NOTHING to warrant the kind of daft comment by Strider

Strider if you cannot make sensible input to the thread please do not bother to post.

If you insist its close to going pear shaped show charts and explain please?

[karlos1983]

one version

Very true. I'm still remaining cautious, but makes for an entertaining evening hopefully

[SMU]

Snowtastic channel low

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010912/ECH1-192.GIF?09-0

S

[ChartViewer]

T192 Lovely

[chris55]

192!!!

[Weathizard]

192 ECM

RUDDY NORA!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Bit premature, really. ECM t120 is finely balanced and could well change drastically after that. Hoping it won't but good to be cautious.

Foundations are set 72-96 hrs on the ECM 12z.

Make of that what you will.

Stillgood to be cautious though. A backtrack on the GFS 18z towards the ECM and I think I'll do myself a favour and go bed early tonight!

[BorrisB77]

Looking at the 0z run on ECM compared to tonight's 12zrun has the projected south- easterly starting over Cornwall/ Devon on the 17th been brought forward by 24hrs??? Very similar ... What a run!! 18z GFS has got to come back towards the ECM.

[Wilxy]

This is one hell of a rollercoaster now, so much uncertainty making the models like a drama so entertaining.