Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hello all,

Privileged to join the thread. This is my first post on Netweather, but it has been my meteorological home for a good 7 years now.

Obviously a newbie, but watching this thread over the last ten days or so there seems to be little consensus over SSW. If ECM et al (soon to have GFS in alignment IMHO) verify, this would be a remarkable Easterly/Northerly.

I don't understand how the stratosphere works. Even Ian F, who is a shining light in the field of meteorology and broadcasting, seems reluctant to bank anything on it. Is this unusually strong warming phase related to what these charts are churning out, or is it realistically a very small amount of air that has a small effect on the majority of it?

Probably an ignorant question.

Welcome Jimmy, you have joined the forum at a great time mate.

[bradymk]

Didnt expext the ensembles for ECM to be that good, the mean is very good and time is running out for GFS. Sorry for no charts but on mobile.

[SnowObsessor90]

Would anyone say that we've now managed to go one step further than we were back in early December or are we more or less at the same stage?

[snowking]

VERY good ECM ensemble means tonight with solid support for the op:

Even out to 240

If anything support for Greenland ridge INCREASES at 240

Very nice

SK

[Isolated Frost]

What I see is a model consensus for that upper low near Iceland to sink SSE, apart from the GFS. After that it could well be a strong northerly a la UKMO, or unstable easterlies a la ECM. The potential that follows the period afterwards is mammoth and the only way is cold- the GFS ops will be brought back into this theme in time

Wow.

[Long haul to mild]

Well, virtually every model has been trotted out tonight, so allow me to add the Russian WMC! Not exactly the most reliable usually but it looks nice at T120 so it's getting an airing!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wmce_cartes.php?ech=120&code=&mode=0

[weatherguy]

I can't help but feel, and this is purely feeling rather than science, that the anomaly charts seem to make much more of blocks than actually seem to materialise. My guess is that if we lookes at one for this weekend generated on the 4th or so, it would have large HP over iceland and beyond where as the heights are reasanably modest and intersperced with shortwaves fro mtime to time...

Remember that the anomaly charts are showing just that; the anomalies, not giving a picture of mean pressure. Ie. remember that pressure is often extremely low around Greenland due to the location of the "standard" polar vortex, so even a small region of high pressure would flag up as a very large positive anomaly.

[rory o gorman]

that is only one solution publiusEngma... It doesnt have much support from the 12z ens and the lastest ecm control is going along the lines of its op .

[nick sussex]

There seems to be a lot of celebrating tonight as if this is sealed - it is far from it. The key timeframes show how the shortwave could scupper any block and completely change the game. There are bound to be ECM ensemble members that go for this.

I can understand the excitement Ian but I'm going to remain nervous until I see all 3 top models agreeing.

Given that NOAA didn't like the GFS 06hrs run then perhaps the 12hrs is still out of kilter up there. I was relieved to at least see some form of backtrack regarding the shortwave energy in the eastern USA.

So at the moment I'd just about side with the Euros but the GFS needs to come back to the party soon!

[WhiteFox]

There seems to be a lot of celebrating tonight as if this is sealed - it is far from it. The key timeframes show how the shortwave could scupper any block and completely change the game. There are bound to be ECM ensemble members that go for this.

This seems a reasonable assumption. I think it is also reasonable to point out that the ECM run tonight, although delivering lots of snow and cold, has less room for error that previous runs. The wide scatter in the GFS ensmbles starting from Monday shows just how crucial the progress of that shortwave on Monday is. THe good thing is that we should start to see some resolution on the upstream pattern over the NW US which will then help to determine the situation further East down the line. We'll know if the GFS really has caught on to something when the North America situation is close to resolution in a couple of days. To me, that gives a current FI of 96 hours, and this may shorten to 72 hours at which point the high resolution models may give us a strong indication of what will happen upstream and then consequently over Greenland...

Still some more hair to lose chasing this one (not that I can afford that and may need it next week)!

[stainesbloke]

The Met Office is forecasting 6 celsius and heavy rain for S Wales on saturday (on the desktop widget you can download from their website). This was updated at 19:00 hours today. Can any experienced forecasters explain why their interpretation of the models differs from much of what is suggested in this forum, with many here talking about a snow event on saturday in southern Britain? Many thanks

I'm definitely not an experienced forecaster but I'd suggest rain is more likely in S Wales initially as it is further from the cold air coming in from the E.

[westkyle8]

can anyone tell me what time 18z comes out please. im new to all this ??

[ChartViewer]

I can't help but feel, and this is purely feeling rather than science, that the anomaly charts seem to make much more of blocks than actually seem to materialise. My guess is that if we lookes at one for this weekend generated on the 4th or so, it would have large HP over iceland and beyond where as the heights are reasanably modest and intersperced with shortwaves fro mtime to time...

Last sentance very interesting....Suggesting strat not being modelled yet at all if at all well, or is this just other upstream patterns and not the strat....Refer this to the experts?

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO ONLY

FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, AND

INCONSISTENT TELECONNECTION WITH THE GREENLAND BLOCKING HIGH.

Edited January 9, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Cheshire Freeze]

VERY good ECM ensemble means tonight with solid support for the op:

Even out to 240

If anything support for Greenland ridge INCREASES at 240

Very nice

SK

Excellent and solid looking ECM ensembles.The mean 850s don't actually rise above -6 for a good proportion of the UK right out to 240hrs. Wasn't expecting them to be so good TBH.

[GoonerGregg77]

The Met Office is forecasting 6 celsius and heavy rain for S Wales on saturday (on the desktop widget you can download from their website). This was updated at 19:00 hours today. Can any experienced forecasters explain why their interpretation of the models differs from much of what is suggested in this forum, with many here talking about a snow event on saturday in southern Britain? Many thanks

The Met, the BBC, desktop widgets, any apps etc will not give you an accurate forecast at all, you won't get what your after trolling through that nonsense. Stick to what unfolds in here I'd say, and check the weather on these sites the day before, or on the day for that matter, even then there mostly wrong.

[Methuselah]

Hello all,

Privileged to join the thread. This is my first post on Netweather, but it has been my meteorological home for a good 7 years now.

Obviously a newbie, but watching this thread over the last ten days or so there seems to be little consensus over SSW. If ECM et al (soon to have GFS in alignment IMHO) verify, this would be a remarkable Easterly/Northerly.

I don't understand how the stratosphere works. Even Ian F, who is a shining light in the field of meteorology and broadcasting, seems reluctant to bank anything on it. Is this unusually strong warming phase related to what these charts are churning out, or is it realistically a very small amount of air that has a small effect on the majority of it?

Probably an ignorant question.

Welcome to the cuckoo's nest, Jimmy!

[bluearmy]

fantastic ecm ens with an omega block and us sat in the cold corner !!

re the cpc comment re the greeny block not teleconnecting with the alaskan ridge - the last time this happened on cpc was late nov/early dec. at the time a greeny block looked solid but in the end it didnt happen with the alaskan ridge verifying. now we dont need a strong greeny block to ensure the jet runs far enough south to deliver the ecm type runs. i'd like to hear stewart's opinion on cpc's comments

[Troubleatmill]

if only these kinds of charts would show up in January rather than April! hang on? hasnt it just been xmas?

[Weathizard]

Best De Blit ens of winter so far, absolutely stunning, can't wait to see the london ones.

[Long haul to mild]

So that's ECM,UKMO,BOM,GEM,NOGAPS, ECM ensembles vs JMA and GFS

Not bothered in the slightest about the JMA; despite the Met Office supposedly regarding it highly, I don't hold much truck with it.

Need GFS to get on board though!

[124alex]

can anyone tell me what time 18z comes out please. im new to all this ??

9,30

[bradymk]

I can understand the excitement Ian but I'm going to remain nervous until I see all 3 top models agreeing.

Given that NOAA didn't like the GFS 06hrs run then perhaps the 12hrs is still out of kilter up there. I was relieved to at least see some form of backtrack regarding the shortwave energy in the eastern USA.

So at the moment I'd just about side with the Euros but the GFS needs to come back to the party soon!

After seeing the EC suite Nick, it should only be time before gfs comes in to line. The mean is brilliant and good support for op and short ensembles reinforce this with hardly any mild members anymore. I was still slightly weary tonight but these ensembles have persuaded me that its very likely now. The mean at 240 is still great, expect a very cold set of extended ensembles

[Strider]

There seems to be a lot of celebrating tonight as if this is sealed - it is far from it. The key timeframes show how the shortwave could scupper any block and completely change the game. There are bound to be ECM ensemble members that go for this.

Yes - I really have no idea why posts asking for caution are being shot down. GFS is showing another highly possible scenario, it's almost as though people have forgotten it exists! With the failed December easterly it was GFS that reacted first.

[mcweather]

ECM short ensemble

Cold is the form horse tonight peeps

and not an outlier either there are colder options on their too

[Summer Sun]

can anyone tell me what time 18z comes out please. im new to all this ??

All output times can be found here

Welcome to the forums you've joined at the perfect time