Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Weathizard]

Looks like game over at T96 I think, shortwaves a plenty and low very strong coming off eastern seaboard. Lets see where this goes....in the bin?

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[picog]

Sorry but whats a shortwave?

Low pressure

[nick sussex]

The GFS upstream whilst still not totally with the others holds back enough energy to clear the low ene.

This buys us some time, a decent trend at least from it.

[Snowy Liverpool]

GFS going shortwave crazy again... That area under Southern Greenland is the ultimate high pressure repellent, it's been a conveyer belt for shortwaves all winter.

[Ali1977]

Cold air is much further west, this is good right?

[Harsh Climate]

And up the eastern UK towards the Borders surely looking at that....?

Yes definatly, last couple of runs have shown an area of heavier snow moving into the edinburgh area sunday morning!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[MrSunshine]

Looking good for the Northern half of the UK on this run.

[Snowly does it]

Pressure over Scandi better, we might be ok. Too tight to call it from this run. Exciting, isn't it?!

[bradymk]

A definate improvement upstream on the 12z but not perfect and still not as good as the others but a step in the right direction certainly

[Hammer]

T96 which is about where I stop, colder uppers extend across country. Compared to 6z -4 was down middle of Ireland. On 12z way off western coast of Ireland. Seems plenty of snow chances for many areas.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Hammer

[Weathizard]

Hmmm this might still be on you know, compared to the last run its much better orientated and if that SW moves S we could get a ridge into Greenland?

Will probably topple though. Nice NE'ly for my region though.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[Bonjangle]

Cold air is much further west, this is good right?

sure is Ali

[Methuselah]

[Met4Cast]

In my experience, once the GFS has flipped wildly its often slow to come back on board (on times that its wrong), we've seen a slight improvement on the 12z run so if the UKMO and ECM continue to offer favourable outputs I don't think we need to worry. If the ECM or UKMO pick up on the current GFS pattern then I'll be concerned.

[AWD]

Whilst not as good as other models, it looks better than the 06z. This was T120 on the 06z;

Same time, T114, on the 12z;

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the short term there is growing agreement on some sort of easterly incursion on Sunday and possibly into Monday, which may bring scattered snow showers into SE Scotland, NE England and Lincolnshire, although we may well only be looking at a window lasting between 18 and 36 hours for this before the shortwaves come down from the north-west. There may then be a frontal snow event on Monday/Tuesday as the frontal systems associated with shortwave activity push into the cold air, although the GFS is suggesting a snow-to-rain event (as opposed to this morning's ECMWF which would see rain confined to south-western Britain).

I have a feeling that the GFS is overdoing the shortwaves but that the ECMWF is underdoing them- this split quite often arises and I think some sort of middle ground is likely- how cold/snowy this will be is uncertain.

[bradymk]

big difference here guys, not quite as good as ECM and GEM but certainly positives, i would expect the gfs to continue improving now, a big run with big improvements, phew

[Snowman.]

Ahhhh saved (slightly)

[Snowy Liverpool]

Even if it does fail later, some positive news - at t96-120 the lows in the Atlantic are much better alligned (vertical instead of diagonal on the 06z), suggests high pressure standing its ground a bit more.

[Snowly does it]

Much better by T120, the lp near Iceland isn't too much of a spoiler anfpd we are not setting the flattened Azores feeding SWerlies

[Southender]

Scandi ridge saves us for the moment. Nice upgrade at 120.

-10's into EA region.

[That ECM]

Looks good out to t120 to me. I don't understand a lot of the comments on here. Heights building in the right place.

[Harsh Climate]

Definatly a better run for the long term prospects, but crucial part coming up. The WAA o our west seems to be heading closer up the western side of greenland rather than right over us this run, so positive signs.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Anti-Mild]

In the short/mid term it's an improvement on the 6z, but it's still not soothing my fears particularly - that SW is hanging around doing a lot of damage to the heights that want to build in the area.

The ECM really is the crucial run (seems like we say that every day).

[A.J]

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

A shame members just can't take a hint Pete....Even though the thread title is self explantory, certain members still have trouble understanding plain English.....

Oh well back to the Model Output Discussion!