Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[nick sussex]

No resolution this evening, it looks like the drama goes on and on and on........

The chopping and changing in the models between outputs is really some of the worst we've ever seen on here.

[SMU]

UKMO RAW data has shifted South & East with the PPN for sat-

the surface temps/ 850 line all support snow from Kent out to the midlands....

UKMO VERY good at 120

Upper air cold pool on our doorsteps- although slightly milder the furtehr west you are...

S

Edited January 9, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im sorry but the gfs12z is not a good run for those wanting a cold spell of weather-we can see clearly the upsrtream pattern is dreadful at 144h with heights falling to the North west.

If another shortwave does for us i'll scream.!!!

[-uksnow-]

Fantastic UKMO @ 144

Eat that GFS.

[weatherguy]

The high looks like it may just topple here out in FI, but the main thing is it's a massive correction from the 06z which showed a very short lived easterly before the atlantic set back in. Unfortunately the correction isn't enough to completely deflect the atlantic (merely delays is), but the key thing is it's a step in the right direction, while the other models so far remain supporting of the cold spell.

I do find it amusing though that we're fretting about whether the cold spell will be prolonged or more short lived before it's even arrived though...

[mulzy]

GFS 12z failed - the high is already toppling at 144 - poor run.

UKMO better at 120, though far from perfect.

[nick sussex]

UKMO at 144hrs , thankyou, thankyou, thankyou.......

[Southender]

UKMO gives us the straightest Northerly I have ever seen at 144

[Anti-Mild]

UKMO at +144 is beautiful! Just wish it went to +168!!

[Panayiotis]

Lovely northerly at 144hrs on the UKMO!

[andy_leics22]

doesn't the gfs 12 just delay the atlantic?

Well, it prolongs the cold snap for the foreseeable future but it doesn't look like it'll be a very exciting run in the medium term. Better than the 06z though by a long way so it's progress!

[Harsh Climate]

BOOOOOM! Good UKMO!

[SMU]

Seen worse

Seen better

S

[Slowpoke]

With that high pressure in place it would stay cold, France & Spain get the real cold on this run so far!

I'm sticking with the ECM

[bradymk]

GFS an improvement definately but still not great, UKMO is good so now GEM, ECM etc. Still no answers to where this will go, I think we might need the 00z, and tomorrow morning will we be waiting for the 12z's once again.

[A.J]

In the more reliable time frame (up to T96) The 12z output favours a stronger signal for wintry ppn for parts of the midlands and central southern England...The undercutting LP packs a lower CP allowing a stronger pressure gradient....The result being a stronger easterly to north easterly draw sweeping more frigid air in from the near continent...Less marginal to my eyes, more conducive to possible disruptive snow saturday pm/overnight

[abruzzi spur]

doesn't the gfs 12 just delay the atlantic?

well I suppose technically all blocks or easterly flows do this, the real question is for how long?

AS

[Harsh Climate]

Say this every time lol, but ECMWF tonight is going to be masssive!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well at least the 12z would buy time for corrections ... 850's now between -5 and -10 right out to +144 .. Short term seems to be upgrading , as it has done last couple of days . The look of the flow on Monday , would likely result in Snow Showers chaining together for the East Midlands.

[karlos1983]

Goodbye Atlantic if this verifies! BOOM

[Coast]

If another shortwave does for us i'll scream.!!!

Here will be the place to do just that:

[Southender]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?09-17

Seen worse

Seen better

S

Indeed.

Brings the Northern contingent into play.

Southerners will have to make the most of the weekends activities if this comes off.

[london-snow]

As far as up to 120+ which i am sticking at it is a big improvement from this morning and the overnight. Could not care really about the extended outlook as this can and will change good or bad.

Just to throw into the mix and add that our most notable cold spell's previously showed some sort of breakdown in the mid range output but failed to or got delayed and delayed. Something to keep in mind perhaps considering other factors becoming evident down the line and therefore the possibility of models operational to be off the mark in the medium to longer range.

[Harsh Climate]

Long term prospects on the GFS are poor but if the difference between the 18z and 12z is anything like we have just had we could be looking at some very good charts again.

[SnowObsessor90]

That UKMO has renewed my hope somewhat for later, come on ECM stick to you guns!