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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?


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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Well I am struggling to see what the problem with this run is, unless I am looking at the wrong charts.

+ 120 and nearly the whole of the UK is still under - 5 uppers with - 10 uppers knocking on the East ?

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Well I am struggling to see what the problem with this run is, unless I am looking at the wrong charts.

+ 120 and nearly the whole of the UK is still under - 5 uppers with - 10 uppers knocking on the East ?

h850t850eu.png

Much better than last 2 runs i rekon.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

gfs doesnt dive the shortwave to the west so the euro trough isnt replenished and the CAA from the east will less impressive than ecm/gem. probably more like the 00z gfs and fairky blocked, settled and cold next week

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Better WAA up west coast of Greenbland at 126

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Much better than last 2 runs i rekon.

Yes much better with heights further north than the flattened 06z at 126hrs.

post-17320-0-13910500-1357748028_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Could we get a northerly from the low above Scandinavia !!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Might sink but just goes too show that how inconsistent the models are being.

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

A good leap in the right direction for the GFS, makes for huge differences and shows just how early FI really is. I would expect a watered down ECM tonight with a further backtrack from the GFS on the 18z.. tentative signs eh.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

UN96-21.GIF?09-17

UKMO looks fine at +96.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: NW London

BINGO!

12z brushes the 06z run off like the bad penny it was

12z...

rtavn1201jan0912z.png

06z...

rtavn1261jan0906z.png

Miles apart, thankfully!

doesn't the gfs 12 just delay the atlantic?

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

We could really do with that low to the west of iceland heading up the western side of greenland, if that was to happen it would be plain sailing to a truly great set-up! Hopefully future runs will have it further west.

Rtavn1381.png

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

She is trying desperately to get in that Iceland door. But fails.

Much better than the 6z though, much better.

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

funny how the GFS this time yesterday was the shining light and ECM the party pooper how things have changed though all is not lost lost ..I feel we should concentrate on this saturday and sunday best chance of snow in my area since December 2010!! And i more than happy with that.............. short wave or no short wave at t96!!!rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

How consistent has the UKMO been the last few days while the other models have been flipping? Or am I just imagining it? Still out to 144 and good signs, probably worthless looking further at the moment, thank god we have got away from the flat pattern! ECM will probably go flat as a pancake now, what normally happens.rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

12mb difference in London at T132....think that emphasis the volatility

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

A quick comparison: 00h00 on Tuesday

T+132 12GFS

post-1217-0-87667000-1357748243_thumb.pn

T+144 00z ECM

post-1217-0-54275500-1357748265_thumb.pn

So having ducked the early return of a westerly flow in this GFS run - still absolutely huge differences between the two big guns 5 days out.

12z UKMO going with the 00z ECM... What a palaver.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

gfs better than the 06z but not in the saem league as yesterday. ukmo looks consistent with its 00z run. energy will drop to our ne at day 6. ecm had this to our west. ecm route better but ukmo still a good winter run. note ukmo at T72 has snow from se england across to n wales

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