Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[snowstorm445]

A good weekend from the GFS if it verifies, and reasonably good within the reliable period. After that its the usual GFS shortwave-obsession knocking down the high. No doubt a raging jet plus Bartlett will result.

I won't be paying much heed to it unless the ECM backs it up.

[SnowBallz]

Goodbye Atlantic if this verifies! BOOM

A somewhat meridional flow

[Slowpoke]

UKMO looking great!

So, ECM & UKMO both looking good for cold and snow.

Now, let's hope the GFS falls into line. Whilst this latest run is better than the 6z, I'm hoping it'll come into agreement with the other two.

[Snowly does it]

12z GFS falls apart at T120ish when that lp anchors round the tip of GL. We need everything 200 miles west and that to ride up the west coast.

As itus, SWerlies and warm air knocking on the door by T150 and no clear route back.

GFS still a Major concern for prolonged cold.

[Snowman31]

is the UKMO not quite unreliable though this winter?. Is the GFS not much better at handling shortwaves around greenland?

[Met4Cast]

12z GFS is not that bad at all. We still have the shortwave drama but it's FAR better than the 06z run. We have better heights, the topple is delayed by quite a while and we see plenty of convective activity coming in across Eastern areas.

In any case, the topple is out in FI, the thing to take from the GFS is its moved back towards the UKMO and ECM and away from its disastrous Atlantic driven 06z run. UKMO is gold once again.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Anyone else annoyed that we are the block that allows Spain and North Africa to get snow on the 12z lol. Absolutely dreadful run long term, improvement for the weekend though.

[AWD]

Im sorry but the gfs12z is not a good run for those wanting a cold spell of weather-we can see clearly the upsrtream pattern is dreadful at 144h with heights falling to the North west.

If another shortwave does for us i'll scream.!!!

The GFS would give us a cold "spell" of weather. Just not the sustainment a lot want. It would be a few days of cold & snow for some!

[Slowpoke]

Goodbye Atlantic if this verifies! BOOM

The high extends from Greenland to Southern Spain and Africa, fantastic!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Slowpoke

[Weathizard]

Energy south of Greenland is too much and the ridge finally topples after a real fight. Much better signs from the GFS though, its not a dreadful run at all, I'd say its a slight move towards the EC/UKM. ECM holds the aces at the moment, just depends what it draws next...

[Ian Brown]

Long term prospects on the GFS are poor but if the difference between the 18z and 12z is anything like we have just had we could be looking at some very good charts again.

Yes very different to the 06z for the weekend but shocking going forward from day 6/7.

[Methuselah]

I think it's fair to say that the models, and the GFS especially, are struggling with this...As are the humans!

[Wilxy]

12z GFS falls apart at T120ish when that lp anchors round the tip of GL. We need everything 200 miles west and that to ride up the west coast.

As itus, SWerlies and warm air knocking on the door by T150 and no clear route back.

GFS still a Major concern for prolonged cold.

Its still much better than 6z and still also quite different in handling the height rises.

[TEITS]

Whilst the UKMO is excellent we still have a very uncertain outlook. Im going to throw the 06Z NOGAPS run in here because this is yet another of many options.

[Lincstim]

As I am all new to this with all these different runs what has the latest GFS run come up with compared to yesterday's runs? Has the latest run occurred yet and if so what is the outcome. Some of the post in other FB pages were suggesting extremely low temps and hell of a lot of snow. Please go easy on me as I'm learning

[bluearmy]

is the UKMO not quite unreliable though this winter?. Is the GFS not much better at handling shortwaves around greenland?

you'll find out by friday !!!

[Snowman.]

Ignore the rest obviously having a hard time the GFS and goes against many background signals.

Default GFS

[weathersupremacy]

@fergieweather

Yet another amusing run from the US-GFS model churning out currently. Still eager to restrict cold only till early next week. Reliable? Hmmm

[johnholmes]

also copied into the more serious thread as it will be buried under a mountain of posts in no time

Just a very quick post from me. Reading the model thread really is funny. So many folk going up and down like a jack in the box as each run, not even a full run, each frame comes out. You really should look at yourselves.

Meantime what is the overall pattern into/over the weekend and beyond?

Cold sums it up, rain or snow for some during Friday into Saturday and snow showers down the eastern side on Sunday.

Detail-silly question as always. Precipitation is never sure even 24 hours out-yet again I have to say add on 7 more additional variables for do you get snow or not. That is reality.

Beyond that and the overall view to me is staying cold for most. The anomaly charts are LARGELY, note the word, in favour of a block persisting, most probably NW of the UK. All but GFS support this idea, NOAA, consistently now for 8 or 9 days, ECMWF for about 6-7; GFS is the odd one out with it being both less consistent and less in favour of blocking than the others. NAEFS, since it started to follow the blocking idea, about 3-4 days ago is generally along the same lines as NOAA.

Obviously there has to be reservations in the 6-15 day time frame let alone further out. As I’ve posted before on my confidence levels they vary from about 65% to 90%, at the moment I would say 75% or so for cold to dominate in the 6-15 day time span, and in the 1-5 day also with this at about 90%.

Edited January 9, 2013 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

Just to warn you all. Because of the still differences upstream be prepared to be inundated later with numerous NOAA ramblings together with loads of charts. Be afraid, be very afraid!!!

Look at the positives the GFS at least has done a small backtrack but as you can see what happens in the eastern USA will be critical for us so I hope especially for newer members you indulge me with my obsession with the upstream pattern! lol

Everyone else already knows about this!

[Harsh Climate]

Surely if this run came off, wouldn't it go completley against and contradict the supposed SSW event???

Edited January 9, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Snowy Liverpool]

As long as the ensembles say otherwise, I'm not concerned. For example the ensembles were actually warmer on the 18z run yesterday than the 06z run today, yet we went crazy over the 18z because of 1 member and were disappointed by the 06z because of 1 member. Far too much importance is placed on the operational at t96+

[Southender]

Whilst the UKMO is excellent we still have a very uncertain outlook. Im going to throw the 06Z NOGAPS run in here because this is yet another of many options.

http://modeles.meteo...0-144.png?09-12

Rather that than the UKMO Northerly. But that is a very IMBY statement!

Main thing is we have seen a good shift back towards the EC/UKMO from this afternoons GFS early on.

[Bobby]

is the UKMO not quite unreliable though this winter?. Is the GFS not much better at handling shortwaves around greenland?

The UKMO is currently the best performing model, closely followed by ECM and GFS lagging behind in 3rd place.

[andy_leics22]

Tonight's ECM is probably going to be one of the most anticipated model runs ever! The UKMO looks good, the 12z GFS looks average but a lot better than the 06z run.

The other important runs to look out for will be the 12z BOM model run and the GEM 12z run.

Both of those showed stonking runs on their 00z's

So if they follow on with their 00z theme then we could be in business. Just a little off-topic mention here... I went Aldi earlier and they had snow shovels for sale outside the entrance that weren't there 2 weeks ago, coincidence?