Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Troubleatmill]

I think all options remain on the table here and I doubt if even 12z will have this resolved just yet

BFTP

Completely right all options still available,thats where we are. Of course we are wanting cold as the majority of us are cold lovers becasue we like extremes, thats why we are all on here, cold spells in Winter, hot spells in Summer. We have to admit that the GFS is not showing us what we want and we cant dismiss it and like you say BFTP it would be a suprise if we have cross model agreement (including ensembles) from the 12z's. Fact is the ECMWF ensembles are great, GEFS ensembles not quite so,

Other models are just as split Gem (a good model:cold) JMA (high respect from MO:MILD) although latter still to update today

the rest really are not worth taking onboard too seriously

Edited January 10, 2013 by Nick JB

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can't ignore the slight backtrack from the ECM. Yesterday the cold comfortably made it, today if a 200 mile shift North happens on the current forecast then all of the UK is mild. It was on the mild side of the ensembles though for the crucial time (t96-t144). UKMO is a strange one, the shortwave moves Northeast, but the high pressure makes it North too. No other model is going for this, got to say it looks great at t144. Would that be a possibility? The other models that have shown the shortwave moving northeast have then gone on to end any hope of cold.

If the upstream pattern holds firm to what the majority of modelling suggests then that is very much still on the cards.

[Hammer]

@fergieweather: Forecast outlook from @metoffice leans to continued colder outcome next week, with lots of uncertainty on attendant snow threat and distribution.

Which prior to 12z and presumably after full analysis of 06z does set us up for this evenings model output nicely.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Hammer

[MKN]

Ian if you have called this right then I will total respect for you. You have been brave in sticking with your resolve it what looks like a wall of different evidence. The UkMO ECM bbc GP sm and countless other models. Calling for cold IMO with only the gfs to back you up its very brave. Good luck !

Its not hard to side with the gfs so it won't make IB any more or less respected in my view. The fact is mild is the main player in this part of the world so even if its 101 models vs the gfs, when the gfs goes for mild then there's still a high probability of happening. Likewise if any of the big models go for mild it has to be given serious consideration. Atm my prediction despite the majority pointing to cold would be 60/40 in favour of cold at best. Hopefully after the 12s il be thinking 80/20

[Met4Cast]

In 1 hours time we'll have some idea over where we're heading. Hopefully.

Though I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS remain bullish over the mild with other models remaining on the cold theme, i'm not sure I could take another night of this!

[stainesbloke]

Can you post some charts to backup why you think mild is more likely? From where i'm sitting, it's everything against the GFS.

If everything else was showing mild but the GFS was showing cold, would you still favour the GFS?

Yes, I think I would based on events this winter. I'm not saying the other models are rubbish or having a go at anyone's views. Just expressing an opinion/feeling but if I'm wrong I've no problem saying so

[kate1]

@fergieweather: Forecast outlook from @metoffice leans to continued colder outcome next week, with lots of uncertainty on attendant snow threat & distribution.

Which prior to 12z and presumably after full analysis of 06z does set us up for this evenings model output nicely.

I could be reading this wrong but that seems to me to suggest that most of the uncertainty now lies on where/if snow will fall and that there is less uncertainty with regard to the cold?

I too remember Steve M's fantastic call on the February cold - he certainly pulled the rabbit out of the hat back then and appears to have equally convincing arguments this time.

[EML Network]

I shall be away for the 12z, but boy oh boy am I looking forward to coming back here at about 5:30 to see what mayhem it will have caused, just in time to digest it all and enjoy the 12z ECM start to roll out.

Whatever ends up being the eventual outcome, this past week has been fascinating model watching and I think we have all learn't a great deal about various aspects of weather and model watching / interpitation.

I would like to thank Ian for taking the time out to come and post here as well as all the other members for their input and time to tell us what their own thoughts are..I really do hope that the next 4-5 runs from all of the models will clear things up on way or another, but I doubt that there will be any valuable conclusions to draw until the 12z's have rolled out tomorrow.

By which time we'll all either be celebrating the coming weeks events, or we'll all be downing a bottle of Jacks finest and the hunt for the next cold outbreak will begin all over again.

Good luck everyone...keeping my fingers crossed

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the move towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

Edited January 10, 2013 by happy days

[IDO]

Simon Keeling for next week:

I am surprised the Met are so bullish. Most of the pros are still sitting on the fence. Look at GEM ens:

Lots of scatter 13th. I assume that could easily flip re the current GEM op.

Look at Nogaps, again massive scatter at that pivot point:

The confidence in a cold spell via ECM is great but this looks on a knifes edge to me.

Edited January 10, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

Looking at the 00z ecm mean and spread plus the more mobile thinking gfs i wonder if yesterdays jma might turn out to be a decent attempt ?

[MKN]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the move towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

Lets clear that up... The ecm moved towards the gfs on the 00z.

The gfs moved towards the 00z ecm run on its 06z.

Neither has moved completely to the other and if both continue in the same vein some sort of meet in the middle would be the likely outcome.

[Snowy Liverpool]

"I am surprised the Met are so bullish. Most of the pros are still sitting on the fence. Look at GEM ens:"

They have access to better models, and after what happened in December I think they'll be paying a bit more attention to the MOGREPS this time

[Hammer]

I could be reading this wrong but that seems to me to suggest that most of the uncertainty now lies on where/if snow will fall and that there is less uncertainty with regard to the cold?

I too remember Steve M's fantastic call on the February cold - he certainly pulled the rabbit out of the hat back then and appears to have equally convincing arguments this time.

I think you are reading it wrong. To me this suggests that upon even the most recent analysis 0z and 6z this morning, Met Office still "lean" towards the more colder outlook of the Euro's.

[nick sussex]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the move towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

Maybe they're both wrong!

I agree though the ECM isn't as good today with a low margin for error but the UKMO looks very good and the latest NAM 12hrs still doesn't back the GFS upstream.

Of course the GFS could well be right, we'll know in about an hour. I can't imagine though the UKMO allowing their forecasters to be so bullish about next week unless they had some later data which they think discounts the GFS.

It's certainly been one of the biggest model dramas that I can remember, given the timeframes involved the 12hrs will surely decide which model or models will lose all credibility in here suffering expulsion to the cannon fodder model section!

[tight isobar]

As, i have said, some days ago, i feel, after viewing, of both the18z, and poss 0z, we may well end up with the halfway house scenario, say between gfs/ecm....although further i also would,nt be shocked by yet more unfolding dramas....happy viewing.

[Timmytour]

My version of "Looking at the early frames of the GFS model run...For Dummies"

Run the 850hpa temp and SLA chart

Look for the yellow and orange colours out in the Atlantic forming the image of a graceful swan, flying in a north west direction.

If you see this, it's going to turn out to be an epic run, particularly so if the bird is looking east at the UK at the same time.

However, if it instead takes on the shape of a more scrawny looking chip-pinching seagull type of bird flying towards the UK, then be prepared for your heart to break....

Edited January 10, 2013 by Timmytour

[Met4Cast]

As, i have said, some days ago, i feel, after viewing, of both the18z, and poss 0z, we may well end up with the halfway house scenario, say between gfs/ecm....although further i also would,nt be shocked by yet more unfolding dramas....happy viewing.

There is no half way house. It either gets mild or stays cold, two options, thats it

[R.P. McMurphy]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the move towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

Hello Happy Days.

Not sure I agree with that at all. If you could possibly show me on the charts where this "big jump" has happened I might just change my mind. ECM slightly moved towards the GFS earlier, now it's a reverse. GFS IMO has this all wrong, hence the latest forecast from the Met Office.

Lets take for example, if ALL the moddles, including the Ensembles, the Met Office, Exeter, Senior Forecasters except for the GFS were all showing/saying the Atlantic is coming, would you ignore them and follow the GFS which showed a different output? I think not.

People have been burnt & stung, we have all been there, so doubts are always going to be in your mind, but you only need to view the models and listen to the forecasts - Cold & Snow for some this weekend, with this theme continuing well into next week... Dont know what more people want?

Very interesting times ahead, not to mention the excitement... I fully expect the GFS on the next run or the 18Z to begin to follow the ECM.

It's coming.

[Continental Climate]

Well ive had my spats with Ian Brown but i personally think he and the GFS have this nailed unfortunately.

There has been a pretty big jump from the ECM overnight IMHO.

Anyone denying the move towards GFS this morning since the ecm12z yesterday is in denial IMO.

I think looking at the models this morning there has been a step toward the GFS solution by the ECM whilst the ukmo remains rock solid cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png!! GFS = zonal

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif!! ECM = Half way house

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif!! UKMO = rock solid cold

Now we must remember that at the moment i think the ukmo is verifying best and i wouldnt bet against it at 96, whilst ECM and GFS are more prone to flip flopping even at this range!!

Taking into account the ensembles which still show good support for a cold solution next week and the met office which are confident of a cold snowy week, I too would just come down on the side of it remaining cold next week.

However IB's method of forecasting which seems to boil down to 'if it can go wrong for the uk, it probably will', cant be argued against really as it is the one method of forecasting that has verified the best over the last twenty years!!

Hope he is wrong, if he is right though i dont think he should be elevated to status of senior forecaster!!

[Nick B]

Maybe they're both wrong!

I agree though the ECM isn't as good today with a low margin for error but the UKMO looks very good and the latest NAM 12hrs still doesn't back the GFS upstream.

Of course the GFS could well be right, we'll know in about an hour. I can't imagine though the UKMO allowing their forecasters to be so bullish about next week unless they had some later data which they think discounts the GFS.

It's certainly been one of the biggest model dramas that I can remember, given the timeframes involved the 12hrs will surely decide which model or models will lose all credibility in here suffering expulsion to the cannon fodder model section!

Not sure we will necessarily 'know' within a hour. We'll see the next GFS model run but even at this stage it may still be clueless (to use your terminology? - apologies if not ). Especially considering the last NAE vs. GFS 48 hr charts you posted. The difference in shape of the LP in the W Atlantic for me was interesting there, resulting in a very different direction for where the jet would be sent, the NAE far more favourable. Would you really be confident that GFS would suddenly have this modelled correctly, or any other model (I am sorry to say!)? I think things may get a little more messy before they are resolved yet, but as has been pointed out this could result in a big payout for some areas. Gawd knows where at this stage. FI is no more than 48 hrs, I'd say, and accuracy for forecast ideas of precipitation between 12 hrs and radar!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Nick B

[Hammer]

On the NAE 06z UK view for T48 it has low West of Ireland at 1000hpa on T42 on 12z , further south west tip of Ireland at 998hpa.

[Ian Brown]

Eyes down in 10 minutes Ladies & Gentlemen.

Key timeframes T66-90 at around 15.50. What happens here with the shortwaves will determine where the rest of the run goes.

[Spurry]

Something must give soon, i have never known 2-3 big models be so far apart within such a small timeframe, the GFS is certainly being consistent with it's output whereas the ECM differs slightly from run to run..i see most people are referring to the SSW not being taken into account with predicting the shortwave track , is it really that simple, can such a big forecsat model really be so fallable..

my Heart wants ECM/UKMO but my head is telling me GFS

[Paul]

Model Thread Reminder Post

Please keep your posts on topic in this thread - ie related to and discussing the model output.

If you're feeling like a rant or a ramp about the model output, or want to sound off about the models without actually discussing them then we have a thread setup for that here:

If you're finding this thread a bit too fast paced and chatty for your liking, we have a slower paced, more in depth thread available here:

This thread is very popular and very fast moving, but that doesn't mean it's a free for all so please help keep it interesting and on topic for all those using it by making sure you're post is relevant to the topic before hitting submit.

Thanks!