Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[mcweather]

OK, next week......

What would concern me (if I were a coldie) is that One, there is not cross-model agreement at D5+, and Two, that the fly in the ointment is the GFS. Being an American model and therefore probably more focussed on what happens Stateside, and what happens there is likely to affect us downstream. Three, the 'default'/most common setup is Atlantic and zonal.

For those reasons, i think that the most likely outcome is that the rest of the models will fall into line with GFS in time and that the GFS is most likely to verify at the moment. I know that there are those will say "..but the Strat events go against what GFS are showing...." but that is for beyond the end of next week.

I'm not saying it's "game over" after Tues, I could be proved completely wrong, of course. but gut feeling (for the reasons I've explained above) tells me we are likely to have a repeat of the December shenanigans, but without the rampant zonality that followed for the rest of that month.

Whatever, we live in interesting times.

Its not just the strat guys that are going against the gfs solution, The meto further outlook does too.

[IanM]

Please read and absorb this, the model thread is not for chatting about anything other than what the models are showing and the potential outcomes, if you have seen your posts disappearing, I am sorry, but the sheer volume means that we can't contact you all individually to explain why, and eventually we'll have to start limiting posting rights for those that constantly ignore the calls for using the correct thread. It isn't fair on the other thousands of forum members who stick to the guidelines in the only threads that we try to keep on track because of their popularity and usefulness.

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[Man With Beard]

TBH in situations where two big models oppose each other, I have always found there is a bit of truth in both of them. I was thinking this yesterday, (ECM significant northern blocking, GFS no northern blocking) and this mornings ECM did exactly what I expected - a compromise, a little northern blocking - and now if you look at GFS 06Z you can see the tiniest upper high has snuck into Greenland at around T144. Probable result? Battleground UK from Tuesday onwards. High chance of stupendous amounts of snow in the north. The south could go either way, in fact there may be transitions between snow and rain through the week, but could be all rain (yet more flooding?). That's what I expect taking all models into account.

[nick sussex]

Nick Sussex posted the NAM model prediction, it seems to show that the American high res disagrees with GFS, of course that might be wrong and GFS might have made a stonker of a decision, but whose to say. I think the 12z will make things a little clearer (hopefully)

I'm sure I said that last night and was very surprised to see the continued disagreements this morning!

It's rare to see this much disagreement within 96hrs but also shows the fine margin between what the UKMO shows and what the GFS thinks will happen.

[Troubleatmill]

06z ensembles at t144, make what you will, its all very tiring if not annoying living in this tiny corner of the globe sometimes

Edited January 10, 2013 by Nick JB

[Frosty.]

The gfs must be completely wrong, and the gefs mean because the meto update is the polar opposite with snow and sharp frosts for the next few weeks, the ecm 00z ens mean is excellent for cold cyclonic snowfest conditions, and is what GP mentioned earlier so the gfs is barking up the wrong tree and will have to back down..and quickly, the meto must be reasonably satisfied that a cold and unsettled outlook is the form horse now.

[johnholmes]

John what do you think of those comments from NOAA re the upstream pattern that I posted earlier.

It's looking very complicated!

Its on page 6 by the way.

hi Nick

Yes this thread moves at such a pace so tks for that but I had read it.

Interesting I confess never to having read the particular area forecast but it does give a flavour to all of us on just how complicated this winter seems to be turning out. It is also a plus to folk like chio that the high levels in the atmosphere are now being regularly quoted by the professionals. 10 years ago I am certain this would have been unthinkable. Complex as you say but probably a colder rather than a mild term outlook for the UK, say in the 6-15 day time frame. Who knows beyond that. And of course the detail on the next 6 days will lead to many mood swings in here I would imagine. Will it snow? Yes for many, when, where, how much, think in terms of 24 hours for any real detail and possibly as little as 12 hours. If folk can accept that then less risk of 'toys out of prams' at regular intervals.

Edited January 10, 2013 by johnholmes

[trisnow]

hi Nick

Yes this thread moves at such a pace so tks for that but I had read it.

Interesting I confess never to having read the particular area forecast but it does give a flavour to all of us on just how complicated this winter seems to be turning out. It is also a plus to folk like chio that the high levels in the atmosphere are now being regularly quoted by the professionals. 10 years ago I am certain this would have been unthinkable. Complex as you say but probably a colder rather than a mild term outlook for the UK, say in the 6-15 day time frame. Who knows beyond that. And of course the detail on the next 6 days will lead to many mood swings in here I would imagine. Will it snow? Yes for many, when, where, how much, think in terms of 24 hours for any real detail and possibly as little as 12 hours. If folk can accept that then less risk of 'toys out of prams' at regular intervals.

John, sorry to post this here. Could you point me in the direction for your snow guide please? Is it pinned somewhere? I can't locate it. Thanks.

[Ian Brown]

The gfs must be completely wrong, and the gefs mean because the meto update is the polar opposite with snow and sharp frosts for the next few weeks, the ecm 00z ens mean is excellent for cold cyclonic snowfest conditions, and is what GP mentioned earlier so the gfs is barking up the wrong tree and will have to back down..and quickly, the meto must be reasonably satisfied that a cold and unsettled outlook is the form horse now.

Totally disagree - with respect to Stewart and the METO - both were wrong in December and the METO did a quick volte face.

I'm surprised the METO are talking about snow early next week, I thought the 6-15 dayer would stress the uncertainty. The GFS must be a huge elephant in the room at Exeter right now.

[Frosty.]

Disagree with that. The met office update is spectacular!

It's even an upgrade from yesterday, totally different to what the GEFS 6z mean is showing, the exact opposite.

[johnholmes]

John, sorry to post this here. Could you point me in the direction for your snow guide please? Is it pinned somewhere? I can't locate it. Thanks.

Its in the Guides section, I will get the link post in here and in the quieter thread as it will soon be lost in here.

[Frosty.]

Totally disagree - with respect to Stewart and the METO - both were wrong in December and the METO did a quick volte face.

I'm surprised the METO are talking about snow early next week, I thought the 6-15 dayer would stress the uncertainty. The GFS must be a huge elephant in the room at Exeter right now.

I think you are wrong, last month we had a cold stratosphere, now we have the impact of strat warming working it's magic with more to come, i'm sticking with the meto, gp and the ecm and believe that proper winter will be arriving soon and staying.

[bradymk]

UKMO go with the UKMO model and EC Ens but stress uncertainty. Interestingly, GEFS towards next weekend trends colder once again, in line with EC so GP idea of cold again after looks a good bet right now

[trisnow]

Its in the Guides section, I will get the link post in here and in the quieter thread as it will soon be lost in here.

Thanks John, maybe a suggestion to mods is if we put the link in the yellow quick links section for people? Maybe save them asking in here?

[johnholmes]

Its in the Guides section, I will get the link post in here and in the quieter thread as it will soon be lost in here.

here it is

remember there are lots of other guides on models and a host of other things in there

[GoonerGregg77]

All we can divulge from so far from the latest models thus far is, initially this weekend, Rain, predominately sleet and transitional snow will effect the southern part of England & Wales, that we know of. Then from Sunday into Monday, we will be unstable cold to v.cold air with snow more favourable in the east, although the SW & Wales are at threat of some general snow from lows spinning in off the Atlantic.

As we go through next week, it's like the winds will veer more NE'ly, and favour Eastern areas of the UK and Scotland maybe, and drier and brighter further west, with occasional sleet and snow showers moving east to west through the midlands and SW England.

Less cold conditions (As per GFS & not gospel, but must not be ignore, after all 4 or so runs make it a real possibility) will try to make it's way in from the west, while the East keeps hold of the much colder conditions with ongoing periods of snow in shower form. Showers are likely to be as ever, hit and miss, and most likely slowish moving. After Wednesday, it's likely the cold will hold on again out to the East, more snow showers for this area, and the West is likely to be again in a Less cold environment, and again brighter.

Overall, EA, SE Britain, along with your usual Eastern most parts of England & Scotland are where you'll see better winter conditions for enthusiasts. Inner most closest areas next to these areas, ie; Lake District south, into North Midlands & south of that can expect sleet and snow showers.

It's more organised bands of sleet and snow that is the main problem for forecasting in my opinion.

Sorry moderaters if there are no charts to back, delete if need be.

[Weathizard]

Can I just say, with people referring to the GFS saying its the most consistent model, granted for the last 4-5 runs its been practically the same synotically but I am going to give a shout to the GEM, has been consistently for 3-4 days, run after run been solid in ridge going north and nice easterly flow on the 15/16'th, I think in these circumstances with it being the Canadian model, I'm willing to give it a bit more of a chance, not just because its showing what we want, but because it has been seriously consistent for the past few days, hasn't batted an eyelid whilst all the other minor models have been changing there mind every run.

Something has to give sooner of later, and I just do not buy the GFS version of events, sorry but I just don't, the GFS is famed for putting too much energy into low pressure systems and shortwaves. It perfectly plausible what its showing but with what the other two more reliable models are showing at day 4-5, I'm siding with at least some part of the country staying cold/very cold next week. One things for sure, I think no matter what people say with regards to how difficult it is for the models ect, one/two of the big guns are going to be seriously embarrassed here, in normal circumstances if the OPs were different but the ENS were similar you could give them a bit of leeway but clearly both have gone down different routes, only one can be right.

06z ensembles at t144, make what you will, its all very tiring if not annoying living in this tiny corner of the globe sometimes

Very frustrating I know, a complete shambles from the ENS really.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Weathizard

[Robbie Garrett]

According to the very kind email response I received this morning from the MetOffice.

The Polar Vortex that come south of Canada and goes to Greenland, and then there is a small bit that splits away towards Iceland and heads towards the UK and it is this that the models do not know how to handle and it is still the case today

GFS is still mild, EC very cold. There is likely to be further changes in the next few days, and from my interpretation of the email I suspect going towards a colder outlook is very likely, seeing as the EC is favored more than the GFS, especially past day 8, but more so during the SSW.

Does anyone have any questions I could forward onto them? As they are very regularly helpful.

[SP1986]

The Met-office update does show what the model initially show which is potential for snow, and very cold temperatures, but that's the initial forecast for example the GFS shows temperatures could be very low on Monday morning, presumably down to snowfields. Thereafter it said remaining fairly cold with frost and patchy ice.. It's spectacular for the near time, which is the most interesting timeframe for wintry weather of you look at the models, but in no sense further on towards the 10-15day mark does it say to me anything that would suggest spectacular cold.

This to me suggests a mid-point between the GFS and ECM outputs, for that time frame.

[huw1985]

Long time lurker but first time poster-

It seems to me that the models may be hinting at some form of middle ground solution. The jet is certainly tilted better on the 06z than the 00z run.

[Potent Gust]

Hi all. I have been a member on here for many years now and I still have lots and I mean lots to learn. However my take on this is that from midweek onwards milder air will advance from the west and make the western side of the the UK milder (still average or slightly below) for a short while before the cold air digs in further and fights back. I have seen some turnarounds in the model output over the years but this would be a new record if the other models do a complete u-turn and back the GFS. I personally cannot see that happening for what it is worth. Thanks again everyone for making this an amazing forum! Keep up the good work

[mcweather]

Totally disagree - with respect to Stewart and the METO - both were wrong in December and the METO did a quick volte face.

I'm surprised the METO are talking about snow early next week, I thought the 6-15 dayer would stress the uncertainty. The GFS must be a huge elephant in the room at Exeter right now.

Why would you be surprised Ian when the Meto model iscurrently the top verifying model at 5 -6 days. Of course they will back their own model against that running in third place. I don't think the GFS is the elephant in the room at Exeter. By the looks of it , its not even in the room at all.

[Shunter]

Latest MJO update shows things moving swiftly through phase 5 at a reasonable amplitude. This I believe equates to more MLB as we move to phase 6.

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

I see the Meto have just released their first warning of Snow for the SW on Saturday...and also an updated MRF suggesting colder weather to become more embedded, seems they must have reasonable confidence for this, despite the GFS differences.

Current Hadley CET for January stands at 7.6c up till 9th. If this were continue it would beat the all time record for January of 7.5c set in 1916 I believe. I would therefore think that any future movement to a milder synopsis this month is on the law of probability highly unlikely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[UV-RAY]

I think you are wrong, last month we had a cold stratosphere, now we have the impact of strat warming working it's magic with more to come, i'm sticking with the meto, gp and the ecm and believe that proper winter will be arriving soon and staying.

Have to agree Frosty the stratospheric profile last month is nothing like what have going on now. Ian, the models caught everyone out last time, but the writing was on the wall due to the stratosphere not being primed for lasting cold, the dynamics are complete opposites to what we have now, so your views on how the MetO and all the models except the GFS being wrong is a little misleading. Off course we can't ignore the GFS, but it seems an unlikely option.

[Ian Brown]

The Met-office update does show what the model initially show which is potential for snow, and very cold temperatures, but that's the initial forecast for example the GFS shows temperatures could be very low on Monday morning, presumably down to snowfields. Thereafter it said remaining fairly cold with frost and patchy ice.. It's spectacular for the near time, which is the most interesting timeframe for wintry weather of you look at the models, but in no sense further on towards the 10-15day mark does it say to me anything that would suggest spectacular cold.

This to me suggests a mid-point between the GFS and ECM outputs, for that time frame.

I think it favours the ECM/UKMO quite strongly, there is going to be no mid-point anyway.

The 06z ensembles are the strongest yet to back the solution that the OP has shown for 6 consecutive runs. Surely this can't go on much longer and the ECM will change tonight.