Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Snowman.]

This may seem bold and stupid but I strongly believe that Gfs is wrong as it shows a strong Atlantic and polar vortex which just doesn't seem likely. ECM haven't trusted it all winter and even when they all showed cold I still didn't trust it. BUT I do believe it's right to some extent with a brief Atlantic low and keeping heights further north with some form of undercutting later. I always knew that I shouldn't get ramping as it leads too stress. on table atm hard too type and stuff so I there is parts that don't make sense.

[Mark Neal.]

12z NAE not picking up on the snow signal yet for Saturday, though only goes out too 12pm-Saturday at this stage... Although snow showers are showing close to the North-East Facing coasts down Eastern England...

Edited January 10, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Summer Sun]

It's clear from the ensembles GFS is on its own for showing milder weather

NAEFS, NOGAPS and GEM ensembles are all going for the colder solution

[Coast]

A polite reminder

With a potentially interesting (and possibly significant) GFS run due out in a while, can we just remind everyone that is equally as important now to keep to discussion of the model output and how you see it transcribing to the actual weather we may get.

This thread is one of the most read in Netweather at the moment and undoubtedly highly popular to a wider audience too. To maintain the high quality that our members (and others viewing from outside the normal forum community) expect, please check your contribution before you click the post button, as if it isn't relevant, it will be removed to ensure the thread remains on topic.

Thank you everyone!

[LomondSnowstorm]

12z NAE not picking up on the snow signal yet for Saturday, though only goes out too 12pm-Saturday at this stage... Although snow showers are showing close to the North-East Facing coasts down Eastern England...

I think it only really shows snow when precipitation is particularly intense, certainly the uppers profile and the fact that there's now a warning out down the east coast for snowfall from Saturday morning onwards suggests it should be snow showers away from the immediate coast from 6am:

[Great Plum]

Sorry for cluttering up the thread but has anyone got today's 12z gme run?

[sub zero]

Its not hard to side with the gfs so it won't make IB any more or less respected in my view. The fact is mild is the main player in this part of the world so even if its 101 models vs the gfs, when the gfs goes for mild then there's still a high probability of happening. Likewise if any of the big models go for mild it has to be given serious consideration. Atm my prediction despite the majority pointing to cold would be 60/40 in favour of cold at best. Hopefully after the 12s il be thinking 80/20

Im really struggeling to understand these quotes,and ive been reading them all morning..

If the gfs op was on the money, it would be far from mild.Snowfeast more likely...

Snow possible just about anywhere from t46 to t144, then a milder few days before t192 kicks in, then its snow maggedon..

t204 snow for scotland

t216 snow ne england and scotland

t228 snow for most of england

t240 snow for most of england,heaviest in the se

t252 snow for the se

t264 snow for the sw and ireland

t276 snow for most of england heaviest in the west,rain for se

t288 snow for se and midlands north

t300 snow wales and the sw

t312 snow for scotland

t324 snow midlands north and ireland

t336 snow scotland and ireland

t348 snow midlands northwards

t360 snow northern england

t372 snow for cornwall...

So maybe not quite as bad as many on here seem to think...

Or am i missing something...!

[Mark Neal.]

I think it only really shows snow when precipitation is particularly intense, certainly the uppers profile and the fact that there's now a warning out down the east coast for snowfall from Saturday morning onwards suggests it should be snow showers away from the immediate coast from 6am:

I agree, the 850hpa temperatures currently projected would mean snow showers on eastern coasts and slightly inland. Also colder air trying to undercut as the system moves in a bit more, so would turn to snow at somepoint, probably early afternoon for Midlands,Gloucs- Then central southern England later on... Anyway 12z runs now underway, good luck everyone

[bobbydog]

Sorry for cluttering up the thread but has anyone got today's 12z gme run?

there you go - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_cartes.php

[Summer Sun]

Sorry for cluttering up the thread but has anyone got today's 12z gme run?

http://translate.goo...tes.php&act=url

Looks good I think

Edited January 10, 2013 by Gavin.

[Troubleatmill]

potentially massive set of 12z's coming up, think it will either go mental in here tonight or turn into a ghost town, prety tense stuff!

makes you laugh that it is only the weather and that model watching half the time more exciting than the actually outcome.

absolutely no-one knows what coming up despite the various levels of knowledge in posters from complete new comers to the Pro's and the vast majority of us who sit somewhere in between.

Here we go!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Nick JB

[Mark Neal.]

The 12z WMC @ T120 looks good

Nothing wrong with that chart at all though is yesterdays 12z ! GME sets the ball rolling with a good 12z run so far... Next up the GFS 12Z & then UKMO 12Z..

Edited January 10, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Mark Neal.]

The only thing wrong is it was yesterday's run and not todays

Yes just seen that and edited my post, see above! GFS 12z coming upto the timeframe where we may start to see the rain coming in from SW, turn to snow at a later point..

[Thunder Snow]

Looking good for some snow/winryness on saturday morning for parts of the north

[Southender]

Early thoughts on this run suggest the LP west of Ireland heading further South.

[Summer Sun]

Looking good for the weekend still

[Mark Neal.]

Here is 18pm- Saturday... Precipitation Type & Look at Precipitation .... From 12z GFS

Edited January 10, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Met4Cast]

Big difference upstream

Much more inline with other models thus far

[Cheshire Freeze]

Early thoughts on this run suggest the LP west of Ireland heading further South.

Looks like a better profile around Greenland. Again we have *some* energy heading SSE from that shortwave and the positioning of that next low following the track of the initial SW looks slightly more favourable for WAA

[Snowy Liverpool]

t72 looking promising...

The low pressure to the west of Greenland hasn't elongated like the previous runs. It's stayed in a circular shape, giving the high pressure more room to work with for hopefully a push north later in the run.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[Wilxy]

This is looking better so far. uptp o 72h signs of that low to are north sinking maybe?

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's getting there, whether or not it quite makes it

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011012/gfsnh-0-72.png?12

T72

On the 06z the low NW of iceland was 995 MB & one circular shallow low-

NOW 1000mb - shallow fragmented feature with one peice of energy lifting out NE towards svalbard

One peice moving...???

SE.....

S

[Troubleatmill]

Little short wave over NI at t66 could be useful in digging that low SE

[Hammer]

Early thoughts on 12z GFS T66 -8 uppers further South over much of England. At T72 low over Iceland not as deep as it was showing on 6z T78.