Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Methuselah]

Moaning, whingeing and arguing this way --->

[TEITS]

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-90.png?12

NEARLY NEARLY 2 lows now-

another move to the euros-- maybe not this run.,..- but the 18z-

remember SMALL increments to the euros is all thats required....

S

Yes based on all my years of following the GFS you never see a sudden switch but a slow change over subsequent runs.

Despite what some may say the GFS is swinging towards the Euros.

[Southender]

Bad of snow moving SE across the whole country.

Where did that come from?

Oh yes its the Shortwave starting to head in our direction.

Trending the right way from the 06z run.

[Summer Sun]

A band of heavy snow crossing the country at t102

[SMU]

Just to prove the difference-

t108 -6 uppers over glasgow 12z

t114 1c uppers over glasgow 06z

S

[R.P. McMurphy]

GFS Is certainly starting to Back Track - as I said earlier, the 18Z will prove prominent. Just need to keep all models on board, very dodgy times, but looking very good.

Edited January 10, 2013 by IanM
don't call out or bait other members please

[ICETAB]

UKMO T96 chart out on wetter and it looks more like the GFS.

[Buzz]

No real climbdown on this run though just minor changes so far.

Not so Ian - just look at 102z -

http://www.meteociel...&ech=102&mode=0

Azores high ridging much further north, and as for the track of the lows ......... well, just compare and contrast with the 6z which had us in milder southwesterlies at this point. GFS still wants to eventually go its own way, but it's a major backtrack from the 6z and more towards UKMO and ECM.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Buzz

[Troubleatmill]

but steve its heading to the same kind of setup seen on the gfs6z not saying its right just its not good for the midterm.

Have to disagree im sorry the 12z gives far more scope for the LP exiting Iceland to dig SE allowing higher pressure to pull toward Iceland behind it...comparing 06z to 12z :

[weather eater]

Massive change derived from tiny steps.

[ChartViewer]

Definite step away from its previous 4/5 runss today at 114

[Snowy Liverpool]

UKMO at t96 looking similar to the GFS, from what I can see there is a slight westward shift, a slightly wider atlantic ridge and the shortwave hasn't split into two.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[Summer Sun]

UKMO t96

GFS t96

Decent agreement there

Edited January 10, 2013 by Gavin.

[smhouston]

but steve its heading to the same kind of setup seen on the gfs6z not saying its right just its not good for the midterm.

It doesn't matter, look at the short term for changes that have a massive effect, which are proving to be the case

I must admit I'm rather surprised GFS is backing down, especially with how persistent it was. The changes may seem small, but at the timesclare they are absolutely gigantic!

Anyone saying it hasn't is a total WUM and should be banned IMO. It just confuses the newer members

Hopefully get a cracking ECM, although, I'm expecting a more middle solution between it and the GFS

[MR EXTREMES]

UKMO at t96 looking similar to the GFS, from what I can see there is a slight westward shift, a slightly wider atlantic ridge and the shortwave hasn't split into two.

thats this mornings only up to t30 on this site http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

[Snowy Liverpool]

thats this mornings only up to t30 on this site http://www.meteociel...ch=6&carte=1021

No 96 hours away from 12z thursday is 12 monday, look at the date on the chart.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011012/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

GFS T 120 tonight is at the exact tipping point to the euros-

upper air cold pool well established in the SE quadrent & heights pushing NE to the NW of the UK-

another run & there would be undercutting...

S

[Panayiotis]

thats this mornings only up to t30 on this site http://www.meteociel...ch=6&carte=1021

No it shows its the 12z, meteociel havent updated theres I dont think.

[Geordiesnow]

I wonder if people have not thought that maybe the models are reaching a half way house and perhaps this run will look more like the ECM. Its a bit better it seems but its not very spectacular thus far.

[Summer Sun]

thats this mornings only up to t30 on this site http://www.meteociel...ch=6&carte=1021

Its the 12z on wetterzentral look on the left side Thursday 10th 12z

Edited January 10, 2013 by Gavin.

[Timmytour]

Not sure I like so far.....i'm getting a scrawny seagull flying towards us rather then an elegant swan flying away!

[tight isobar]

Seen, enough ön12z out to 120, good improv, think we can expect further verification, ön18z this evening...BETTER..

[Snowman31]

t96 ukmo

[Snowly does it]

The GFS to T132 ties in with the MetO thoughts with cold across the East remaining and attacks from the West as that low at T132 slides under bringing a slightly less cold bent to the west for a little while.

Encouraging

[Southender]

NW-SE diving shortwaves out of Iceland. That is more like it GFS.