Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[kev238]

Much better runs this evening. My only really concern is that they all show different outcomes, suggesting none of them are right. It would also make everything much clearer is gfs was fully on board. However even 12. Z keeps things cold at the surface until end of next week.

ECM again the pic of the bunch

[MrSunshine]

Yes this is a potentially an extremely important run for people seeking proper cold, surely tonight "Pub Run" of the GFS will continue its slow backtrack to what I think is the most plausable solution.

[TEITS]

I don't often like to be OTT but my word that is an extreme chart which would cause absolute chaos.

JMA on board with a cold E,ly.

[snowbob]

People saying earlier that ECM will back down tonight

Looks better than the oz to me

[nick sussex]

And yet another shortwave developing into a Channel Low!

COBRA state of emergency called!!!

Some astonishing snow totals possible IF this run verified, thats a big IF!!!

Fun to watch the ECM but low confidence in any solution past T96hrs.

[garbagebags]

Ok, well I've made my mind up, I'm sticking with the ECM for the rest of the winter, the GFS can go in the bin for all I care, I wont be viewing it.

Yes I know I could still be wrong but Ive had enough of the tension and ive committed. GFS = BROKEN.

[AWD]

Just for clarity, this is the actual tweet from EssexWeather Centre regarding the MOGREPS model;

"Starting to see that trend upwards from day 8 now but still plenty of cold members. ECM will be crucial tonight"

Not as simple as "it's heading mild post day 8"

[Anti-Mild]

The +168 is pant-wettingly gorgeous!! Would be a memorable event if it were to come off, however, it is a very fragile evolution and there will be lots of twists and turns before next Thursday.

[bluearmy]

hmmm - atlantic much weaker than the 00z and we may see more energy from the ne than the west as the run progresses. what is encouraging is that we see no correction north - infact if anything, its a slight drift south. IF the overall pattern is right, that gives a big chunk of the uk plenty of room for error next week.

[bradymk]

Guys, newbies on here, you have to realise how good that 168 chart is for UK snow, i might sound like im over-reacting but that would cause utter disruption. And the most IMPORTANT thing tonight is that even though there are different charts from each model, most show a good chance of LP running to the south of the UK with us on the cold side. Could be a snowy week. Shame im on the west coast however, would miss most of it.

Edited January 10, 2013 by bradythemole

[tight isobar]

Absolute cracker rolling here on ecm, snow chaos....

[ChartViewer]

CMA On board at 48

[The Eagle]

All depends on the rough at 84 hrs. If it goes south game on it's clearly game on. Unfortunately GFS is so stubborn.

[Continental Climate]

Copious amounts of snow if this were to come off for the east http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011012/ECH1-168.GIF?10-0!! Probably cool and frosty in the west!!!

[Jason H]

The T168 chart is a seriously cold and snowy chart. The South East would get plastered. Nice consistency from ECM. To be fair the GFS has been consistent as has the GEM. It's so obvious the modelling of that shortwave dropping down from the NW is crucial. Having said that, the ECM at T144 only needs to be a couple of hundred miles North and the carnage would be over Scotland with warmer uppers into the South. Excellent model watching!

[Ian Brown]

I don't often like to be OTT but my word that is an extreme chart which would cause absolute chaos.

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?10-0

JMA on board with a cold E,ly.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?10-12

For the far South East only Dave.

A very fragile evolution, with minor shifts taking the pattern in another direction.

The GFS OP has some support for it's messy mid-term evolution which surprised me given the chaotic synoptics it showed.

[Supacell]

The ECM tonight is another "that ECM". Simply jaw dropping charts. I am not going to get too carried away though, not yet anyway

[Snowy Liverpool]

If the GFS continues to backtrack then it's game on. The smaller models are awful, they just move away from whichever major model appears to be the sinking ship at the time.

[winterof79]

North America has had it..... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011012/ECH0-168.GIF?10-0

[rory o gorman]

great ecm tonight , but its a very knife edge undercut , any amplification in the trough early on and it may not dig as deep . caution needed

[nick sussex]

The ECM set up is high risk but high reward for those hoping to use the sledge!

It's one of those rare set ups where the balance between the ridge to the north and jet track aligns perfectly for tremendous amounts of snow.

Of course this balancing act can also go wrong in two ways, the ridge is stronger and jet forced further south, in this case those lows go south with it but you at least lock in the cold, on the other hand a northwards adjustment sees the snow line head that way with lots of turmoil in this thread!

[Tom D]

I don't often like to be OTT but my word that is an extreme chart which would cause absolute chaos.

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?10-0

JMA on board with a cold E,ly.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?10-12

Think of the instability. ECM stands for European Cold Machine right?

GEFS peturbation 2, 3, 4, 7 show potential for undercutting low just to give an impression of how it may pan out.

[The watcher]

WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Favorite bit about this chart. The 1045mb high over the Arctic looking like it's injecting heights into the slowly inflating Greenland area.

[Eskimo]

ECM looking very bullish indeed, this would the 5th run in a row where it wants to bring in copious amounts of snowfall through channel lows I believe? If you want consistency then there you have it!

[snowice]

The ECM set up is high risk but high reward for those hoping to use the sledge!

It's one of those rare set ups where the balance between the ridge to the north and jet track aligns perfectly for tremendous amounts of snow.

Of course this balancing act can also go wrong in two ways, the ridge is stronger and jet forced further south, in this case those lows go south with it but you at least lock in the cold, on the other hand a northwards adjustment sees the snow line head that way with lots of turmoil in this thread!

Do you think the gfs will come on board?