South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I have over laid the PPN and 850 temps for sat at 12pm...Not very clear as at work and limited time..

[WillinGlossop]

So as far as i can see kent lookslike possibly getting light snow saturday through sunday, show showers sunday night through tuesday, more significant snow tuesday into wednesday and possibly snow friday..... Quite wintry.... Im not even bothering looking past monday tuesday on the weather models as it is so volatile.... Such interesting weather within 72hrs, whats the point in looking much further!

[craigore]

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0949 on Fri 11 Jan 2013

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/snow between 0600 on Saturday and 0600 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

The snow event on Monday may bring 2 to 5cm quite widely across England as it spreads southeastwards, with greater than 5cm falling over hills. This warning may be extended early next week.

http://www.metoffice...oldWeatherAlert

2-5cm not exaclly going to be snowed in are we! 2 -5 foot would be acceptable

[Coast]

GFS 06z still just playing the game:

It's showing a very SE event though:

With nothing much showing before Wednesday when we only get this:

Seems at odds with every other current indication and I'm not too fussed about this run TBH

Edited January 11, 2013 by Coast

[nanu]

I just wish today's charts continued the 18z theme from yesterday for next week - no chance!!!!

06z shows zonal returning! I don't like it.

Hopefully some snow for me here in Essex on Monday evening but given the way things chop and change I won't get excited until its snowing outside.

2 days ago it was suppose to be snowing in my area tomorrow PM according to the models.

That's vanished so I won't be surprised if any potential snow vanishes for next week as we creep closer!

well we had an upgrade earlier 06z was bound to be a downgrade, always is from 1 run to another.. 12z will be an upgrade?

[snow raven]

As per usual in these situations, it will be a case of radar watching, curtain twitching and staring at the lamp post once it gets dark (oh, and plenty of praying to the weather gods!)

[scrat]

Morning all! Misty and cold here in Biggin Hill (although not as cold as I had expected). Ice had already defrosted from the car at 8am. So looks like the snow may come in tomorrow morning; let's see what the Springer makes of that . Can't wait to see some pink blobs and seriously hope the only lamp post in the road is working!

Don't forget the birds guys, it only takes a minute to put some food out

[Robbie Garrett]

Heavy Snow Monday night according to the MetOffice website..

-7*C for London possible Wednesday...

Edited January 11, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[craigore]

I have over laid the PPN and 850 temps for sat at 12pm...Not very clear as at work and limited time..

Like the blue blob over kent, TBH it would just be nice to wake up sunday morning to something, anything, white..

[kold weather]

2-5cms does seem very reasonable to me based on the GFS solution for Monday-Tuesday, the GFS probably gives another similar amount on Wednesday for western parts of this region.

Rubbish GFS after that, but I suppose there is other things to get through first...

[Coast]

Morning all! Misty and cold here in Biggin Hill

Morning Scrat, everybody ready for the weekend and beyond on 'the bump'?

[Icebox]

Dexter stop hanging on every run like its nailed...... they are not! There is so much flux and volatility in the model suite right now, the Meto's latest stock phrase is Shannon entropy at record levels according to Ian F.

So mass confusion and odd evolutions are to be expected, as are downgrades and upgrades.

[Gary_R_Walker]

I think in the world of pure science I would put Computer Model Forecasting right up there with Astrology. Chilly and dull here on the east coast.

[scrat]

Morning Scrat, everybody ready for the weekend and beyond on 'the bump'?

Sledges, hats, gloves, boots all at the ready....a quick vodka (for warmth, you understand ) , two snow mad kids and a 'Billy Bonkers' dog, not sure about the rest of 'the bump' but Scrat is ready and waiting!! How you doing Coast

[Lampostwatcher]

Latest bbc news 24

Phil A !

Saturday rain pushing up as far as the m4 turning to snow on the leading edge

Sunday snow showers coming off the east coast coming in as far as east London

Monday weather front coming down from the north west all as snow reaching the SE

[Coast]

Latest bbc news 24

Phil A !

Saturday rain pushing up as far as the m4 turning to snow on the leading edge

Sunday snow showers coming off the east coast coming in as far as east London

Monday weather front coming down from the north west all as snow reaching the SE

I'm going to be attacked from all sides - bring it on tough guys!!

How you doing Coast

Getting over the lurgy that everyone seems to have had (flu/cough) but hoping I'll be well enough to get out in it over the weekend and maybe up onto The Downs if the rest of Eastbourne aren't up there and turn things into mud.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Coast

[Steve C]

I believe you can yes!

Onto the longer term, just seen this great bit of news from GP in the model thread:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2479059

I quite like the end of the 06Z GFS run. Okay, massively into FI and not to be taken at face value, but maybe it is factoring these thoughts in now?

[afcone]

The 06Z NMM hi-res shows rain reaching the western edge of our region at around 0200 Saturday...

Light rain turns to sleet/rain/snow over the North Downs in Kent and Sussex from around 1700...

By 1900 this covers Kent/Sussex/Surrey, still rain on the south coast

It then begins to die out from west to east but lingers in Kent until the model run ends at 0600 Sunday (by which point its showing light snow for southern Essex). From past experience, where it shows rain/snow here in Meopham, it means exactly that - I've had it come down as heavy rain, or thick snowflakes. So all to play for per the hi-res!

[afcone]

Oh, and I totally concur with the adverts recommending the Netweather radar subscription. This winter I treated myself to 6 months of Netweather Lite, and for those of you feeling flush I can highly highly recommend the NMM model that comes with that.

[Robbie Garrett]

Heathrow was going through a Practice Snow clearing event last night in Terminal 5 (British Airways), I can't post the picture of the operations room as it wasn't available in the public domain....

I suspect they are now on red alert. So maximum amount of disruption/closures/severe delays expected.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=egham&day=5 wow if only <3

http://www.metcheck.com/EUROPE/gfscharts.asp snowy week ahead?

[Coast]

Heathrow was going through a Practice Snow clearing event last night in Terminal 5 (British Airways), I can't post the picture of the operations room as it wasn't available in the public domain....

My neighbour is in a senior operational position with one of the UK's top airlines at Gatwick, I need to catch up with him if he's home tonight and see what the inside info is

Whilst we are on aviation weather. I've just checked 21st OWS and they have snow forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday for their bases:

EGVA: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egva

EGUN: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egun

EGUL: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egul

Edited January 11, 2013 by Coast

[PLANET THANET]

Latest bbc news 24

Phil A !

Saturday rain pushing up as far as the m4 turning to snow on the leading edge

Sunday snow showers coming off the east coast coming in as far as east London

Monday weather front coming down from the north west all as snow reaching the SE

hi there, back over on the mod thread, gavin posted at approx 10.00 am some snow charts for next week and it showed quite a bit of the country for most of the week in the pink (snow) apart from thanet as usual , also east anglia , how reliable are these charts ?? as I know that snow is hard to forecast but to show most of the country covered there must be some confidence in it.

[Coast]

If you want to make yourself grin a bit, run the animation here from Tuesday onwards

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[Robbie Garrett]

Probably "Here we 'beeping' go again" or "We are 'beeped'"

That's the words that came out during 2010 =]

My neighbour is in a senior operational position with one of the UK's top airlines at Gatwick, I need to catch up with him if he's home tonight and see what the inside info is

Whilst we are on aviation weather. I've just checked 21st OWS and they have snow forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday for their bases:

EGVA: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egva

EGUN: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egun

EGUL: http://ows.public.se...ay_png&loc=egul