Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[AWD]

Lol.

Snow in Wales, then a little blob of rain over the West Country before turning to snow again further east. You gotta laugh!

In all seriousness though, the only reason the GFS 18z shows the above, is because it makes much more of the mild sector than the FAX charts do. If the 18z GFS didn't have the mild sector, ala FAX charts, then this run could of shown all snow for us,

Makes you wonder if the GFS is overdoing the mild sector?

[gottolovethisweather]

Really?

I've since added the IMBY comment to the original post as I am sure that is what the original poster had the misfortune of leaving out.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Snow Rain Snow on Monday looking at it, looks ok I guess. If I'm seeing it right

Correct

[Evening thunder]

Another push east looking increasingly likely that anything will turn to rain in Egham, Surrey on Monday looking at charts, freezing level etc knew it would be to hard to actually get an event much more interesting there than at home in Devon lol, hardly any have been since I went back usually the reverse (other weather than snow).

(am in East Devon this weekend)

Maybe I fit better into the SE/East Anglia thread when in Egham?

pretty wet here in East Devon today with some very heavy showery outbreaks at times, 22.2mm and some pretty high rivers for a while.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Stormmad26

[gottolovethisweather]

What's your thoughts on the pub run AWD?

[AWD]

What's your thoughts on the pub run AWD?

It's only out to T72. Give me chance!! :p

[karlos1983]

I'm actually finding it a lot let stressful watching the models roll out in the regional thread than the general model discussion where I usually watch! Sometimes I don't know where to look in there, there could be five pages added between +60 &+66.

[noggin]

I spent nearly 50 years thinking I was odd because I like snow. No-one I knew liked it, they all moaned and complained about it.

Then I found this place and felt at home.

[gottolovethisweather]

Another push east looking increasingly likely that anything will turn to rain in Egham, Surrey on Monday looking at charts, freezing level etc knew it would be to hard to actually get an event much more interesting there than at home in Devon lol, hardly any have been since I went back usually the reverse (other weather than snow).

(am in East Devon this weekend)

Maybe I fit better into the SE/East Anglia thread when in Egham?

You're welcome anywhere but I would prefer if you tried as hard as you might, to not overanalyse individual runs and to be happy for the rest of us, when and where you can.

These are only projections of what the future may hold and from >t+0 onwards, everything in the atmosphere is fluid and ever changing.

Speaking of which, time for more fluids, anyone for another cider.

[gottolovethisweather]

It's only out to T72. Give me chance!!

The quicker you post on it, the quicker I can get to bed. Your posts are like gold-dust and I must apologise for knicking some of your likes when I reposted your fanastic effort from earlier.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

NAE marginly better on latest output.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm actually finding it a lot let stressful watching the models roll out in the regional thread than the general model discussion where I usually watch! Sometimes I don't know where to look in there, there could be five pages added between +60 &+66.

I don't think I have been in there for the last two days, no need with some of the analysis coming from in here.

[liam300]

Fingers crossed for a shift west in the dam line in tomorrows output

[dancing daisy]

Good lord Saturday nights in are boring. I deliberately didn't make plans as I thought I would be snow watching.

It feels warmer outside yet is apparently 2c, there is very little wind now though.

[gottolovethisweather]

Good lord Saturday nights in are boring. I deliberately didn't make plans as I thought I would be snow watching.

It feels warmer outside yet is apparently 2c, there is very little wind now though.

The beans I had earlier will change that for me.

[AWD]

Nothing worth mentioning about Monday, but the GFS is consistent in bringing something wintry to us in the early hours of Tuesday morning;

Thereafter, as per the 12z, cold and dry;

Can't be bothered to look further out, it will no doubt be different again in the morning.

18z NAE gives this for eastern counties of our region Monday morning;

Then as expected, back to rain for us all;

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Evening thunder]

You're welcome anywhere but I would prefer if you tried as hard as you might, to not overanalyse individual runs and to be happy for the rest of us, when and where you can.

These are only projections of what the future may hold and from >t+0 onwards, everything in the atmosphere is fluid and ever changing.

Speaking of which, time for more fluids, anyone for another cider.

Yeah I agree there, I just started to get worried as the MetO forecasts most of the day have been showing it turning to rain in Egham, and I was more dismissive at first but then the 12z and 18z move to agree with the MetO with the freezing levels higher and warm sector further east with cold in the east more diluted, although the MetO have just updated to show sleet instead of rain in the afternoon. May change back but is a just a bit of an unwanted trend 36 hours from the event.

and who knows if it stays cold something else might pop up

it would be nice to post in this thread generally as my home lies in East Devon and like to follow events in the region even if I'm more inside the SE thread area some of the time

Edited January 12, 2013 by Stormmad26

[cornish snow]

I spent nearly 50 years thinking I was odd because I like snow. No-one I knew liked it, they all moaned and complained about it.

Then I found this place and felt at home.

Could not agree more . Beats casulty anyday.

Dont think the wife agrees(who cares)

[gottolovethisweather]

I spent nearly 50 years thinking I was odd because I like snow. No-one I knew liked it, they all moaned and complained about it.

Then I found this place and felt at home.

That's nothing I spent 112 years thinking the same about myself.

Here's a picture of me now.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Right, best back on topic after my mad moment.

Time to read AWDs and others latest thoughts in this very regional.

[Milli Bar]

The quicker you post on it, the quicker I can get to bed. Your posts are like gold-dust and I must apologise for knicking some of your likes when I reposted your fanastic effort from earlier.

It's ok, I went back and liked the original too! But I appreciated you reposting it as I had somehow missed it earlier. Fantastic post!

Really hoping everything starts moving back west, or at least the cold sticks around for a while so we have time for a channel low to move through against the cold air! Thanks all for your input and analysis.

[dancing daisy]

The beans I had earlier will change that for me.

Nice!

I am usually a glass half full kind of person, to me it just means that there is room to add more vodka, but these charts/forecasts are depressing even me. Every sniff of snow we are forecasted IMBY turns back into a rain event before it has even kicked off. I can feel a tantrum coming on if I'm honest, a meltdown of some description, it would appear to be the only thing that is going to get a chance to melt around these here parts.

[noggin]

Good lord Saturday nights in are boring. I deliberately didn't make plans as I thought I would be snow watching.

It feels warmer outside yet is apparently 2c, there is very little wind now though.

I've spent the entire day waiting for snow and didn't have one flake! I could have stripped the paper off the hall ceiling and taken the curtain pole down ready for the plasterers. Now I'll have to do it tomorrow.

[liam300]

Looks like another non event on Monday for the south coast. Rain rain rain

[AWD]

Both the 96 hour;

And 120 hour;

are very cold and dry. Could be a biting windchill adding cold temperature.

I know I said I wasn't looking out any further, but the 18z is very similiar to the 12z regarding the air temperature. Very cold and predominantly dry. Harsh frosts.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD