Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Mark Parsons]

Where is everyone anyway? Bet you have all gone to find solice in the mod thread lol!!!

[khodds]

I don't think it will be a damp squib. We will see. Think its likely to be very cold this week whatever happens. That has got to be better than the mild muck we have had lately surely? Who knows.. We may get troughs come down and give us a nice surprise. Its all to play for. Looking forward to this week.

[liam300]

What's the GFS like to tonight into Monday any shifts?

[PompeyFC]

ewwwwww...the 06z NAE Precip charts are horrifc looking with mostly rain across the whole of the south apart from the upper south east quadrant mainly

[gottolovethisweather]

Good morning! Can I join in? I'm a regular reader but don't post because I'm not very knowledgable.

Looks like interesting times ahead. I find this http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html really helpful in getting my head around the bigger picture - is it me or is the stuff currently in Scotland and the NW gathering pace as it moves south?

I've made the mistake of telling friends and family it will probably snow - so that will have put the tin hat on it!

A very slight frost here this morning in usually balmy Torbay.

You're very welcome. No problems about the knowledge factor, you will learn as you go along.

Snow reports are all the more welcome.

[latitude]

You're very welcome. No problems about the knowledge factor, you will learn as you go along.

Snow reports are all the more welcome.

Cant see many snow reports happening, even in your location it seem damp. (initial front might produce a little though)

[Sainsbo]

It got down to -2C here last night, but still no signs of snow as of yet. I think we might get a little bit tonight before it turns to rain, but I doubt anything will accumulate.

[Nights King]

This is going to be a stressful week I feel with us chasing our tails the whole time...

At least we finaly have some cold air in place with frozen surfaces for out mini event tonight I wonder if it will be all melted by day break?

currently -0.5c and steady so might get an ice day.

[Bristawl Si]

Where is everyone anyway? Bet you have all gone to find solice in the mod thread lol!!!

because the weather is looking just like a wintry mix for our neck of the woods.

Hoping end jan/early feb will ACTUALLY deliver proper snow for us.

I said before crimbo that the west would miss out on the more wintry stuff. i called a north/east v West/south split with north and east getting the proper cold and snow this winter.

i'll stick by that.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just had another look at meto website and they now have light snow over us for night. It was rain earlier.

Window, lamppost job.

Hello you Dorset and Devon coastal lot.

You all confuse me, one minute you're saying I don't believe we'll ever get snow down here, hardly seen any in my life.

Now, you're jumping around like maniacs.

I tell you what, let's calm down, take things as they develop. Fergieweather has provided us with some very valuable information on how things might pan out so I'll take that for now. To me, there will be many chances ahead of us, for nearly all of our region over time. There will also be disappointments but in the long-term, I think they will be few and far between.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Look at post 710 on the winter model discussion. The SW has the upper hand later in the week, and gets a special mention NOT THE EAST! then possibly

I haven't looked but I may well do, but that has been the trend for a few days now and will be for the forseeable. Just where the BATTLEGROUND lies is the question as to who gets rain and who gets snow.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Looking at a basic view of the 06z, I'll wait until the 12z to look in more detail, the trend of the 06z GFS is pretty much the same as previous runs.

Cold all working week this week before a battleground scenario on Friday. This run has the Atlantic air winning out so shows a snow - rain event, but obviously being so far out, this could & probably will change yet;

Monday, as we've come to know now, show snow - rain - possibly snow again for eastern counties;

These are the MAX temperature mid afternoon next week by the GFS;

The 06z NAE shows tonight's snowfall a tad heavier than previous runs, although still in the light category;

I would expect temporary small accumulations in rural areas before the mild sector comes into play based on this.

Midday tomorrow and its heavy rain across the region;

Before something wintry could affect the moors later on Monday?

The last frame shows the cold air making inroads west again;

That's a basic view of the 06z output anyway, and although detail has and will carry on changing, the trend remains the same, and that's for a cold working week ahead before an increased risk of a less cold Atlantic influence into next weekend.

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS 06 is crap for cold.

Builds a ridge and stops the cold uppers temps hanging round.

Even the SE has just as much rain as the SW.

Between now and Wednesday pretty much damp and wet after any initial wintry stuff later today.

Glad to see you back Lats, thanks for your most intriguing view of the models.

[gottolovethisweather]

Cant see many snow reports happening, even in your location it seem damp. (initial front might produce a little though)

[Beast of Plympton]

Hello you Dorset and Devon coastal lot.

You all confuse me, one minute you're saying I believe we'll ever get snow down here, hardly seen any in my life.

Now, you're jumping around like maniacs.

I tell you what, let's calm down, take things as they develop. Fergieweather has provided us with some very valuable information on how things might pan out so I'll take that for now. To me, there will be many chances ahead of us, for nearly all of our region over time. There will also be disappointments but in the long-term, I think they will be few and far between.

Well put! Surely we can't be throwing in the towel after one run? Particulary after the rollercoaster over the last few days! The trend from what I can see is showing cold. On a personal note, we in Princetown have had 2 days of snow this winter when it was never forecast so the models are a very good guide, the detail is out of the window!!

[latitude]

Glad to see you back Lats, thanks for your most intriguing view of the models.

Like to hear your 100% different take on the 06z output.

Again your expert view please.

As I said some snow about tonight initially, then rain much of the day tomorrow.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

To stop the confusion between the "jumping on one run" type posts and other sound analysis.

I will reshow what fergieweather had to say from his post earlier today.

• Watch for forecast detail weds night into Thurs. UK4 shows substantial inland penetration of banded snow shower developments in keen NE flow extending right across into likes of Glos, Wiltshire, B&NES, etc with accumulation expected based on latest modelling. Meanwhile MOGREPS-15 gives 20% chance more organised snow into SW Thurs. So nothing yet tied down re later in week. Tomorrow snow potential effectively anywhere from Bristol Channel eastwards by 21z onwards; 1-2cm broadly but southernmost extent of snow still uncertain.
  

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Moisty]

Well the cold has arrived and experience teaches me that snow can pop up from anywhere, I seem to remember that in the first week of Feb 09 snow events were developing at various places almost at a moments notice. I remember at the end of that week no new snow was expected in the morning and then suddenly parts of northern hampshire had about 5cms by the evening.

As for today its nice to see the sun!!

[BristolBlizzard]

next week with cold air in place some where in southwest got good chance of even some snow showers breaking out maybe .

[Bristawl Si]

the one major missing ingredient compared to past years 'classic battleground' situs, for our neck of the woods, is days of near freezing temps - real entrenched v cold air.

If this was present it means it's harder to shift and u get a true battleground event with stalling LP systems.

These ingredients are not present at the mo - hence one reason why the fronts are progged to move through our region.

I would love to be proved wrong.

[dec10snow]

Morning all! Some mixed runs again by the looks. Nice to see Ian's take on things at the moment, and the charts he posted (the last one just about showed snow for me if I remember rightly )

Doesn't seemed to have gotten below freezing overnight, not what the met expected... But they're now forecasting sleet overnight for me

[AWD]

This here shows the Met Office expect a cold working week ahead, with even the possibility of a flurry or two making it into eastern counties of the South West;

12z data will be an interesting set tonight.

[dec10snow]

the one major missing ingredient compared to past years 'classic battleground' situs, for our neck of the woods, is days of near freezing temps - real entrenched v cold air.

If this was present it means it's harder to shift and u get a true battleground event with stalling LP systems.

These ingredients are not present at the mo - hence one reason why the fronts are progged to move through our region.

I would love to be proved wrong.

It looks like we may do this week though!

[dec10snow]

This is what the met are predicting for me

[liam300]

This here shows the Met Office expect a cold working week ahead, with even the possibility of a flurry or two making it into eastern counties of the South West;

12z data will be an interesting set tonight.

Have we ruled out Monday and moved onto Thursdays events?