Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[snowhope]

looks like we may just catch the edge of it in north glos, thanks for your continued input ian, very grateful to have your insight on here in the coming days!

[katemart]

Also, courtesy of my agreement with lovely folks at Exeter, can share 2 key WBFL/PPN type frames for tomorrow late evening. Hopefully this helps as a steer re our forecast thinking.

Looks like Southampton AND IoW could see snow at around midnight on Sunday evening, then? Typical - Will be far too excited to sleep and then there will probably not be any lying when it's time to roll into work....

Temp steady here at 3C for hours (as NW predicted). DP 1.8. Rain stopped a couple of hours ago.

[Ali1977]

Another cold upgrade coming on 0330z, thats my hope anyway...Colder monday 850s/dew points would be nice!

[Wilxy]

Well if the latest GFS and UKMO were to be correct the snow chances for the SW as a whole look much better

Something Ian F pointed out yesterday, so lucky to have him

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Well if the latest GFS and UKMO were to be correct the snow chances for the SW as a whole look much better

Something Ian F pointed out yesterday, so lucky to have him

Agreed. Loooooooong way off but the battleground situation could be interesting around this time next week. Probably as many twists and turns as there are model runs betwsen now and then though.

Edited January 13, 2013 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[divadee]

Good morning all. Another day of twists and turns for us all!

I have to admit I was hoping for a surprise miracle overnight but alas no white stuff here. Not even a frost.

[karlos1983]

Good morning all. Another day of twists and turns for us all!

I have to admit I was hoping for a surprise miracle overnight but alas no white stuff here. Not even a frost.

No Miracle overnight, however, the models certainly look better this morning for the short term, with interest for Thursday as well!! I'm a happy man!

[coram]

No Miracle overnight, however, the models certainly look better this morning for the short term, with interest for Thursday as well!! I'm a happy man!

In the very short-term it is now looking like a period of light snow for central southern England in the early hours of Monday, with some small accumulations, followed by a period of rain later on Monday. Let's hope that there is an upgrade and that at least some of us get some snow out of the second batch of precipitation as well.

[John88B]

Morning all. The Met Office weather maps are showing a good 6 or 7 hours snow for some of us overnight so it could have been a lot worse. It's a shame the second band of precipitation appears, at the moment, to be mainly rain. Oh well, I have a feeling there will be a few more chances of snow over the coming week with the cold weather in place.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Bristol/John

[karlos1983]

Morning all. The Met Office weather maps are showing a good 6 or 7 hours snow for some of us overnight so it could have been a lot worse. It's a shame the second band of rain appears, at the moment, to be mainly rain. Oh well, I have a feeling there will be a few more chances of snow over the coming week with the cold weather in place.

Yep agree, comes down to that good old saying, get the cold in first and hopefully the snow will follow,!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well Iv just watched the breakfast weather and IMO it looked a very good forecast, 5cm tonight with more over high ground and then more snow tomorrow, he stressed his uncertainties , and said the southernmost counties and western parts may have more rain with snow mixed in , especially over high ground, to me that he still looked uncertain , and the computer model sort of jumped over the midlands as if they didn't know what to show , but then showed the snow from say Oxford , maybe Swindon , east. This isn't a done deal yet folks, I'm hoping me with elevation will help of course but still see more changes aloft..

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

In the very short-term it is now looking like a period of light snow for central southern England in the early hours of Monday, with some small accumulations, followed by a period of rain later on Monday. Let's hope that there is an upgrade and that at least some of us get some snow out of the second batch of precipitation as well.

Well the bbc breakfast showed a lot more than that , seemed to start around 8pm and clear around 1am , but I'm focusing on my area of course , didn't look too closely for the south

[karlos1983]

Well the bbc breakfast showed a lot more than that , seemed to start around 8pm and clear around 1am , but I'm focusing on my area of course , didn't look too closely for the south

Looked good all the way down to south coast from what I saw, put it this way, I'll be staring out of the window tonight looking at lamp posts, whilst the wife is staring at me giving evils :-)

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looked good all the way down to south coast from what I saw, put it this way, I'll be staring out of the window tonight looking at lamp posts, whilst the wife is staring at me giving evils :-)

Lol my wife has no choice she either joins in the fun or il put her in the shed !!!

Edited January 13, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[divadee]

I missed the forecast on bbc but is it still showing rain for Bournemouth on the coast?

[That ECM]

I missed the forecast on bbc but is it still showing rain for Bournemouth on the coast?

Yes. Still much interest later in the week but as we know snow here is as rare as rocking horse poo!

[divadee]

Yes. Still much interest later in the week but as we know snow here is as rare as rocking horse poo!

Indeed it is. What I would give for another December 1st 2010!!!

[Mark Parsons]

Yep agree, comes down to that good old saying, get the cold in first and hopefully the snow will follow

Yes and what cold, IMHO there ain't enough cold about, Europe is'nt even that cold, when the potent cold arrives across the channel we might be in with a better chance,maybe later in the week?

[Southern Storm]

Yes. Still much interest later in the week but as we know snow here is as rare as rocking horse poo!

we can only keep our fingers crossed and a few other things.

[liam300]

Looks like a repeat of 2011/12 when we had snow then the rain, was a complete washout in the end.

Edited January 13, 2013 by liam300

[khodds]

Phew! So things are positive for us. Lovely to log in and see. Looking fwd to tonight now. And the rest of the week it seems. My son says its -1 outside - I haven't ventured out of bed yet. How low did it get for everyone last night?

[iowpompeylee]

Also, courtesy of my agreement with lovely folks at Exeter, can share 2 key WBFL/PPN type frames for tomorrow late evening. Hopefully this helps as a steer re our forecast thinking.

if blue means snow we have a sneeker of a chance..down on the coast.......

[Mark Parsons]

Looks like a repeat of 2011/12 when we had snow then the rain, was a complete washout in the end.

Oh what joy............!!!!

[Mark Parsons]

So going by that roughly I would say dorset has better chance of a brief covering sunday night...

Looks good but we will see,eh,don't hold your breathe, but really good of Ian to share that info with us, good on him!

[Duane S.]

I'm more optimistic than before that even down on the coast (albeit I'm 2 miles north with a small bit of elevation) there could now be some wintery precip through the coming night.

Ian's chart he posted last night was very promising and I know they rely on the WBFL side of things quite heavily in their forecasts. So with that in mind, with light winds (not hindering snow evaporating at too high a level) and in heavier bursts there is no reason why some sweet spots near the coast couldn't get a covering by dawn.