Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[gottolovethisweather]

Matt Hugo just tweeted this for the Isle of Wight @MattHugo81: - Tough call for down there, but snow unlikely really. I'm still hopeful for this week though :-)

You just never know. Speaking of the Isle of Wight, some pretty potent bursts of rain showing up down that way and some Thunder way out in the Channel.

My Temps have been slowly rising over the last couple of hours, hence my lack of worthwhile reports. Still only 2.8c and that's before the colder uppers come through.

[Ali1977]

Is Swindon looking good for snow?

[Oblix]

hmmm it would appear that these snow events are going to be so marginal as to not happen at all. Here in Basingstoke all the popular weather sites that were showing snow for this weekend and into next week are now showing rain :-(

[noggin]

Really in Yate there were quite alot of flakes, infact almost snow completely?

Crikey, isn't it amazing how just a few miles can make a difference?

What sort of time was that and was there any on Siston Common?

Edited January 12, 2013 by noggin

[Sainsbo]

Is Swindon looking good for snow?

I'm hoping so haha. But in all seriousness, the amount the models are changing I wouldn't like to say. I don't think we arre in a bad place*

[Mark Neal.]

On closer look by 12 mon the 528 dam is over our region, before quickly pulling over all of us again , I think it will be mostly snow , I really do.

I agree mate! I live quite a few miles east of you, so i'm hopeful, I would much rather that 528 dam at least 50-75 miles further south west than currently projected!!

[textmum]

Decided I wouldn't lamppost watch, however eyes now glued to this thread and getting sore with all the reading!!

Need to stop being addicted to 'snow watch', of course it would help said addiction if we got some!!

[gottolovethisweather]

SSIB, I really admire your positive posts, keep them up. If if piddles down with rain across the whole region is it possible you could put an artic spin on it please to cheer everyone up.

Chilly in glos 2.6c........i'll get my BBQ out!!!

I think you'll find he's telling it how it is. Whether the various forecasts match up to the future is down to those weather gods but I'm sure enjoying the ride.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzardof82]

Any news from Ian F

My view is Ian is quiet because changes are afoot, well that's what I'm hoping

[gottolovethisweather]

Is Swindon looking good for snow?

Try this.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

[Gas Ed]

Great analysis by AWD a couple of hours ago. Much appreciated although I know where I'd love to shove that proxy wet bulb!!!!

Anyway, I've also stumped up for the premium radar for the next month just in case something worthwhile pops up!

After a few wet flakes earlier, temp dropped to 2.5 then rose to 3.2 and now back to 2.9

[Andy Bown]

My view is Ian is quiet because changes are afoot, well that's what I'm hoping

Or it could be he has a life besides the weather!!

I am extremely grateful for all his input on this forum as it shows weather is his hobby as well as job :-) .

[iowpompeylee]

You just never know. Speaking of the Isle of Wight, some pretty potent bursts of rain showing up down that way and some Thunder way out in the Channel.

My Temps have been slowly rising over the last couple of hours, hence my lack of worthwhile reports. Still only 2.8c and that's before the colder uppers come through.

that's good I do like thunder.the temps are dropping now :-) I'm still keeping my pecker up for the rest of the week

[dec10snow]

Try this.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

I'm being shown 80% risk for tomorrow!

[BARRY]

well the Frogmore snow dome has just been raised.

[gottolovethisweather]

Great analysis by AWD a couple of hours ago. Much appreciated although I know where I'd love to shove that proxy wet bulb!!!!

Anyway, I've also stumped up for the premium radar for the next month just in case something worthwhile pops up!

After a few wet flakes earlier, temp dropped to 2.5 then rose to 3.2 and now back to 2.9

Indeed, a fantastic summary, very much appreciated and here it is again for those who missed it.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lets see where we stand now for the week ahead.

As an overview, all models support a cold working week ahead, with the ECM the earliest to bring in less cold air, in 144 hours time.

Sunday;

It looks like a dry and cold day. Some areas of the West Country could see an Ice day. It will be cold everywhere;

Later on Sunday and into Sunday night a weather front comes down from the NW. This brings a spell of light snow over much of the West Country;

Amounts are still uncertain at this stage, however any accumulations are not expected to be significant. The GFS does show something a tad heavier than the NAE however.

Into Monday morning, and a second weather front coming down from the north west closely behind the first (perhaps even merging) brings a spell of snow, sleet and then rain to all. Whilst 850hpa temperatures and thickness' look supportive for snowfall, the WBFL and to a lesser degree, the Dewpoints don't. We don't have access to the full NAE suite of charts so we can only speculate as to whether the NAE needs to be modified somewhat.

The current thinking is that a mild sector associated with this front sweeps over SW England, raising the WBFL and turning PPN to rain away from the very highest of ground;

As I said, this looks to be the cause of this;

Although, due to no WBFL chart on the NAE, we can't be sure here. Also, I notice Dewpoints for the South West are the wrong side of marginal too;

So Monday looks like a snow - rain event for many based on the 12z output, although I would still not be overly confident on this just yet. Come Monday evening, the mild sector passes to the South East, and the colder air begins to filter west again;

So there is a chance that the PPN could turn back to snow for eastern counties of our region before the whole band clears SE;

If the mild sector is being overplayed, or the length of time the mild sector is over us is being overplayed, then some areas could see more in the way of snow and less in the way of rain, hence the uncertainty still. However, significant snowfall on Monday is currently looking unlikely.

Monday night sees some very cold air spread west over the West Country;

And we have a third, less potent occlusion coming down from the North West. All models show some possible snowfall over parts of the South West. The UKMO shows some activity over Cornwall & Devon;

This could fall as snow inland, indeed likely too over the moors, less so on coastal areas. The GFS and to some degree, the ECM have some PPN a bit further north over the West Country;

Again, I don't expect this to be anything significant based on tonight's output, but the detail is likely to change so for now, one to watch.

Tuesday - Friday all models paint a very cold picture, especially the GFS. Snow chances look limited, but being a good few days away now, I won't bother looking for snow potential at this timeframe, but show the air type the models show us receiving.

The GFS tonight show a number of Ice days across many parts of the South West. These are the progged temperatures shown for midday midweek next week by the Operational GFS;

And these are the overnight lows progged;

Clearly cold. The GEFS suites support the Operational run for midweek too, before showing a milder blip over the weekend then returning cold again. The Cornish ensembles;

show a predominantly cold outlook, with just a few milder blips as the Atlantic tries to make inroads into the South West. As you can see, the mean surface temperature rarely rises above 5c.

Similiar story on the Somerset ensembles;

Cold outlook there with just the odd milder blip.

As do the Wiltshire ensembles;

The mean barely gets above freezing in Wiltshire, although I think this night be pushing it a little.

If the GFS verifies, then with all the cold air over us, we are at RISK of snowfall popping up at short notice.

The UKMO is similiar to the GFS, although with moderated coldness, but still cold;

The UKMO, based on those charts, would have a slightly higher chance of producing some snowfall for us.

The ECM also keeps us cold until the end of the week, when by next weekend, milder Atlantic air starts to make inroads as the pattern flattens;

So, for the next 144 hours, all 3 main models tonight suggest a cold, Wintery week ahead. No sign of any significant snowfall for the West Country at this stage, but we should see some harsh frosts and low minima.

Disappointing for snow fans with regards to Monday, but I'm sure many of us will enjoy a cold, dry, frosty week ahead if tonight's models verify.

A quick glance long term suggests further favourable Stratospheric activity;

Suggestive of a continued displaced PV and as long as this is the case, there is always the risk of further outbreaks of cold weather later in the month.

Disappointing charts for snow maybe, but still very positive charts for colder weather. No doubt however, with record high Shannon entropy, further changes in the NWP output is likely, for better or for worse.

Thanks.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Crikey, isn't it amazing how just a few miles can make a difference?

What sort of time was that and was there any on Siston Common?

4-6pm and a bit of sleet when i left, but was more wintry towards yate.

[karlos1983]

Hi All

I posted this a little earlier, does anyone with a bit more experience have a view?

Thanks

Karl

Looking at the Fax, it wouldn't take a huge shift West to get rid of the warm sector would it? And it's not there for long either according to the fax, or am I reading that wrong?

At +36 it's looks like the 528 is in Cornwall

At +48 it's Hampshire/w Sussex Border

At +60 it's in the Atlantic

Somerset, Dorset & Wiltshire probably won't be out of the 528 line for long surely?

Edited January 12, 2013 by karlos1983

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thanks guys for you vote of confidence !! I try and go from what's in front of me , I can't post charts as my iPad don't let me for some reason it's very frustrating .

In all seriousness though I just try to be objective , it's hard as I'm a MASSIVE coldie , so difficult not to be bias .

It's odd because all my childhood me and my brother was well and truly on our own with our snow obsession but as we grew and found at first weather two then 12mths later netweather it really made me feel normal !! Iv learnt so much from everyone , And when I get time I would love to take 6months or so and do some serious researching on hear in the learning area and else where to really move to another level regarding knowledge and meteorology in general , it's just so hard with work , a wife , and other things .

But I love all the time and effort everyone puts in to this site and I'm very greatfull , so thanks guys and ladies . . .

[AWD]

Hi All

I posted this a little earlier, does anyone with a bit more experience have a view?

Thanks

Karl

Looking at the Fax, it wouldn't take a huge shift West to get rid of the warm sector would it? And it's not there for long either according to the fax, or am I reading that wrong?

At +36 it's looks like the 528 is in Cormwall

At +48 it's Hampshire/w Sussex Border

At +60 it's in the Atlantic

Somerset, Dorset & Wiltshire probably won't be out of the 528 line for long surely?

What you've said there is pretty much correct,

- The warm sector on the FAX charts isn't really there anyway, so that's good news. The thing we need to shift west is the 528DAM line

- Would say that purely basing it on the FAX charts, parts of Wiltshire & Hampshire & north east Cotswolds could see all snow. Somerset and Dorset still likely to see some rain though.

[Wilxy]

Latest GFS downgrade again IMBY chances of snow now pushes east.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
added the missing ingredient, I hope you don't mind. We don't want total confusion in here!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi All

I posted this a little earlier, does anyone with a bit more experience have a view?

Thanks

Karl

Looking at the Fax, it wouldn't take a huge shift West to get rid of the warm sector would it? And it's not there for long either according to the fax, or am I reading that wrong?

At +36 it's looks like the 528 is in Cornwall

At +48 it's Hampshire/w Sussex Border

At +60 it's in the Atlantic

Somerset, Dorset & Wiltshire probably won't be out of the 528 line for long surely?

Yes, you are reading things right and the Fax Charts are the most reliable outputs of any in the short-term due to their MetO connection and the fact that they possess added human input.

Here's a post I did from earlier showing MetO longer-term prospects, we truly are about to enter a most interesting period in our weather.

------------------------------------------

Yes AJ, but some of the progged cold for example, admittedly only applicable IF you fall on the right side of the battleground zones, you will see the projected depth of cold suggested. The sooner there is snowcover the better and most elements of the forecasting suites will simply have to modify things in our favour. Undeniably I could be in a very good locality but that is neither here nor there due to the uncertainty of where the BATTLEGROUND zone falls.

Check this out for the depth of entrenched cold potential and I urge others to also check their own location.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Below is the current view from the MetO.

Headline:

Cold and frosty overnight, rain and snow in the northwest.

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold and frosty night across many parts, as outbreaks of rain and snow gradually clears the south giving the risk of icy stretches. Further rain and snow will spread southeastwards across western Scotland later.

Sunday:

Rain, and increasingly snow away from western coasts will continue to spread southeastwards, reaching Wales and the Midlands during the evening. Otherwise, dry, bright but cold with spells of sunshine.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Cloudy with snow in many areas on Monday, but rain in southwest. On Tuesday and Wednesday, many areas dry and bright, but frosty. Occasional wintry showers in east.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

The specifics will change at short range but I don't think the trend will go away.

Thereafter the period up to January 26th is even more of interest as I have suggested before. By then, the cold air will be deeply entrenched over a large part of the UK too. Here are the current feelings from the MetO at that range.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2013 to Saturday 26 Jan 2013:

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the details throughout this period, however on the whole it should remain on the cold side across many parts of the United Kingdom, with a good deal of dry and frosty weather, especially for central areas. There will also be some sleet and snow to watch out for on occasion, with perhaps eastern areas most likely at risk seeing any significant snowfall. Also there will be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also be an issue during the cold and clearer nights. Some milder conditions and more persistent rain and hill snow though may fringe into western areas on occasions throughout the period.

THIS SIMPLY SPELLS BATTLEGROUND UK to me. It has been a long time since such an awesome situation has set up, yet alone taken place. Bring it on I say.

[karlos1983]

Really?

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[offerman]

Nice post severe icy, I had the same growing up in Southampton , people thought I was weird lamppost watching then running from front to the back of the house when it snowed watching it. It's great as you say to see so many other butters out there that actually makes it normal. Lets be honest it's harmless unlike many of the things in the world going on today with that age group. Love the snow and may the snow be with us.

[Ali1977]

Snow Rain Snow on Monday looking at it, looks ok I guess. If I'm seeing it right