Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Iceberg]

Yep good of Ian to share that thanks very much.

Nae starting to look a lot more like gfs has done for Monday as the low draw more eastwards than southwards and so the warm sector gets dragged along the south coast a bit, the question is really when this happens.

Gfs at is showing snow, rain then snow for me for Monday which to be honest ill take for now.

Models are showing better agreement for the week ahead with a cold easterly setting in dragging cold air all across and past Cornwall. Then as Ian mentions front coming up in to the sw giving snow for Cornwall ,Devon, and maybe further east.

Between these events on Tuesday we get a possibility of some wrap around Tuesday morning and then a ne streamer as well later on Tuesday.

The fun starts tonight maybe as earlier at 19.00 for the far north of our region, no doubt we will be radar watching then. But tbh you could be radar watching all week with I am sure the unplanned fronts and troughs giving the best snow and most pleasent surprises.

[Beltanemaid]

Good morning! Can I join in? I'm a regular reader but don't post because I'm not very knowledgable.

Looks like interesting times ahead. I find this http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html really helpful in getting my head around the bigger picture - is it me or is the stuff currently in Scotland and the NW gathering pace as it moves south?

I've made the mistake of telling friends and family it will probably snow - so that will have put the tin hat on it!

A very slight frost here this morning in usually balmy Torbay.

[That ECM]

Just had another look at meto website and they now have light snow over us for night. It was rain earlier.

Window, lamppost job.

Edited January 13, 2013 by That ECM

[Beast of Plympton]

According to the car -1.5c out there.... It appears the cold is here!

[Beast of Plympton]

Good morning! Can I join in? I'm a regular reader but don't post because I'm not very knowledgable.

Looks like interesting times ahead. I find this http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html really helpful in getting my head around the bigger picture - is it me or is the stuff currently in Scotland and the NW gathering pace as it moves south?

I've made the mistake of telling friends and family it will probably snow - so that will have put the tin hat on it!

A very slight frost here this morning in usually balmy Torbay.

Weclome!! Not to far from me I see!

[Mark Parsons]

Good morning! Can I join in? I'm a regular reader but don't post because I'm not very knowledgable.

Looks like interesting times ahead. I find this http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html really helpful in getting my head around the bigger picture - is it me or is the stuff currently in Scotland and the NW gathering pace as it moves south?

I've made the mistake of telling friends and family it will probably snow - so that will have put the tin hat on it!

A very slight frost here this morning in usually balmy Torbay.

Welcome, hope you are not of a nervous disposition!!!

[karlos1983]

I do think we have the cold, last night for example, in Poole we had cloud over all night, yet it was 1.2C at 4:45am. So any precip would surely have fallen as sleet/snow at that temp.

I'm cautiously optimistic

[Iceberg]

Yeah...Meto agrees with the GFS forecast.

This is the meto for me in dorset, so light snow, moderate snow, light snow. then a bit of rain midday with the warmer sector, then more snow in the evening.

I'll definately take that.

The rainband for tonight does seem to be moving fast than first thought though and be a bit more intense in places...have to see.

[Tattooed Fox]

Morning All,

Lovely crisp morning here in Bristol -0.3. Not going out just having a pj day though, and looking forward to seeing what has happended over night tomorrow.

GOOD NEWS ..........

Look at post 710 on the winter model discussion. The SW has the upper hand later in the week, and gets a special mention NOT THE EAST! then possibly

[Mark Parsons]

Would be nice Iceberg if the Meto are right but at the moment with it being marginal it will more likely be rain, hope I am completely wrong and please shoot me down later if so...............

[Hidden in the shadows]

I am about as far east and north that this thread goes. Not sure if i should be here or London and S/E ... bit of a Nomad i think !!!

I have not been out yet however the car is still frozen over, the sun is out with a few high clouds. If and when that changes i'll let you know

[Coast]

Please all read Gibbys summary for today as it will give you a good indication of what to expect:

[BARRY]

Good morning! Can I join in? I'm a regular reader but don't post because I'm not very knowledgable.

Looks like interesting times ahead. I find this http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html really helpful in getting my head around the bigger picture - is it me or is the stuff currently in Scotland and the NW gathering pace as it moves south?

I've made the mistake of telling friends and family it will probably snow - so that will have put the tin hat on it!

A very slight frost here this morning in usually balmy Torbay.

nice to have another member in south Devon

[Gibby]

So what for the SW from this mornings output. In a nutshell imo the models have upgraded somewhat overnight, certainly in the longevity of the spell and the coming together at last to show that this week and next weekend are odds on likely to stay cold and frosty. Now, what about the snow. I'm fairly confident that areas east of Devon are likely to see snow tonight with a few cm for many. Further West and certainly near the Bristol Channel coast rain or sleet is more likely. Tomorrow's event is a good deal trickier. I think most of our patch will more likely see rain or sleet with the Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain and maybe the Mendips possibly seeing some evaporative cooling type snow as the heavier precipitation passes by. Later in the week Eastern parts of our region might catch a fleeting snow flurry on the cutting ENE wind then. Further out still developments out to the West could throw a runner SE close to the SW and if that happens then snow could spread across Cornwall and Devon for a time. In Week 2 things look far more complex with anything from frontal boundaries delivering snow to rain events or a general trend to mobile type weather with rain followed by showers in less cold conditions. That's how I see it this morning folks. See you later.

[Mark Parsons]

you about McWeather? Do you think the pattern later in the week is looking familiar to a certain date in 1978??

[BristolBlizzard]

So what for the SW from this mornings output. In a nutshell imo the models have upgraded somewhat overnight, certainly in the longevity of the spell and the coming together at last to show that this week and next weekend are odds on likely to stay cold and frosty. Now, what about the snow. I'm fairly confident that areas east of Devon are likely to see snow tonight with a few cm for many. Further West and certainly near the Bristol Channel coast rain or sleet is more likely. Tomorrow's event is a good deal trickier. I think most of our patch will more likely see rain or sleet with the Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain and maybe the Mendips possibly seeing some evaporative cooling type snow as the heavier precipitation passes by. Later in the week Eastern parts of our region might catch a fleeting snow flurry on the cutting ENE wind then. Further out still developments out to the West could throw a runner SE close to the SW and if that happens then snow could spread across Cornwall and Devon for a time. In Week 2 things look far more complex with anything from frontal boundaries delivering snow to rain events or a general trend to mobile type weather with rain followed by showers in less cold conditions. That's how I see it this morning folks. See you later.

thanks gibby great post as always

[iceman1991]

Matt just said on bbc weather very little snow for the south and west this week and it looks like its raining tormorrow instead of snow this remind me of feb last year snow for a bit then started raining and it was all gone by the morning

[Mark Parsons]

Matt just said on bbc weather very little snow for the south and west this week and it looks like its raining tormorrow instead of snow this remind me of feb last year snow for a bit then started raining and it was all gone by the morning

Not suprised he said that about the short term but as for the rest of the week, hmm...............

[philglossop]

What we need here in Plymouth is a screaming easterly and a channel low

Well I can dream can't I?

[Duane S.]

you about McWeather? Do you think the pattern later in the week is looking familiar to a certain date in 1978??

There are some similarities but the 1978 event (assuming you are refering to the 19th) happened after a fairly lengthy period of Greenland blocking, so not the same sort of setup currently.

If we get a snow event later in the week it will be down to energy dropping through the western side of the UK from the NW (better for longevity), in 1978 it was an attack from the WSW (and norrmally these end in rain and a breakdown down here).

On that subject here is my favourite chart of all time. That day that brough me so much snow (never seen the like before or since) and look at those uppers. Just to show that they are not the 'be all end all' of will it snow.

[Mark Parsons]

There are some similarities but the 1978 event (assuming you are refering to the 19th) happened after a fairly lengthy period of Greenland blocking, so not the same sort of setup currently.

If we get a snow event later in the week it will be down to energy dropping through the western side of the UK from the NW (better for longevity), in 1978 it was an attack from the WSW (and norrmally these end in rain and a breakdown down here).

On that subject here is my favourite chart of all time. That day that brough me so much snow (never seen the like before or since) and look at those uppers. Just to show that they are not the 'be all end all' of will it snow.

Point taken, but the example about the uppers proves what you say, however it was bitterly cold at the surface I seem to remember!

[latitude]

Matt just said on bbc weather very little snow for the south and west this week and it looks like its raining tormorrow instead of snow this remind me of feb last year snow for a bit then started raining and it was all gone by the morning

With an easterly flow what else do you expect? The only PPN the SW will get will be attacks from the Atlantic which sometimes pay off, but mainly snow to rain events.

[BristolBlizzard]

With an easterly flow what else do you expect? The only PPN the SW will get will be attacks from the Atlantic which sometimes pay off, but mainly snow to rain events.

you never know in past ive seen showers from east get across to somerset , devon , dorset . ect ,

[Mark Parsons]

With an easterly flow what else do you expect? The only PPN the SW will get will be attacks from the Atlantic which sometimes pay off, but mainly snow to rain events.

That's not the full picture as easterly flows if strong enough can/will produce snow for some in our region, a slack flow is less likely, however from what I have seen this morning shows quite a brisk easterly, then again the Meto are the professionals, are'nt they..........

[latitude]

GFS 06 is crap for cold.

Builds a ridge and stops the cold uppers temps hanging round.

Even the SE has just as much rain as the SW.

Between now and Wednesday pretty much damp and wet after any initial wintry stuff later today.

Edited January 13, 2013 by latitude