Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Nights King]

So if we look at this evenings event how much snow on the ground might we expect before the rain? 2cm? away from coasts and city centre it should at least settle now we have colder air and frost in place

I think we should focus on this evening rather than speculate on another rain/snow event friday as this has plenty of time to downgrade to another damp squib, of course some of us might get lucky and pick up on the odd flurry throughout the week.

[AWD]

Have we ruled out Monday and moved onto Thursdays events?

Monday got ruled out about 24 hours ago IMO. Can't be certain, but its looking unlikely now.

[dec10snow]

Just to emphasise the unpredictability of snow, two posts on another forum this morning, number one:

An nice covering of snow this morning after an unexpectedly large amount of snow showers blowing across last night!

Number two:

Woke up to a light snow covering this am which wasn't forecast, not complaining tho.

[Bristawl Si]

It looks like we may do this week though!

Look at my profile and note my age.

I experienced the snowy winters and fab blizzards of winters 78/79, 81/82, jan 87 and others, 91 and feb95.

Hence my high expectations on such events for the now in our neck of the woods.

A week like 1st week of Feb 09 would do me!

[gottolovethisweather]

Like to hear your 100% different take on the 06z output.

Again your expert view please.

As I said some snow about tonight initially, then rain much of the day tomorrow.

There is no need to hear my view, I'm sticking to the proper runs with added data, ie. the 12z runs. Whatever they show tends to be the trend, the past has taught me that at least. My view is not needed as AWD for one has already provided a much better breakdown of events, as he sees things.

I know we all view the output in different ways and it isn't always easy to view them in the same way. However, if the post is blatantly a no show on my rooftop post, then it is best to state it as so. Even then, things change at very short-range and none of us should be falling for the trick of over-analysing the output.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Look at my profile and note my age.

I experienced the snowy winters and fab blizzards of winters 78/79, 81/82, jan 87 and others, 91 and feb95.

Hence my high expectations on such events for the now in our neck of the woods.

A week like 1st week of Feb 09 would do me!

I wasn't in west country for those earlier events but the feb 09 one will forever stick in my mind as we got near 2 foot level snow that week. going to take some beating.

[BristolBlizzard]

It looks like we may do this week though!

yes entrenched cold will be great if we could get it

[BristolBlizzard]

Look at my profile and note my age.

I experienced the snowy winters and fab blizzards of winters 78/79, 81/82, jan 87 and others, 91 and feb95.

Hence my high expectations on such events for the now in our neck of the woods.

A week like 1st week of Feb 09 would do me!

i was in bristol for them winters to be great to see that again

latest from ians twitter

W COUNTRY Cont'd: So, thankfully nothing disruptive expected for our region albeit smaller lanes Cotswolds, Mendips etc a tad tricky tonigh

W COUNTRY Mostly light snow, with some moderate localised rates, expected to arrive circa 2100hrs Bristol/M5/W Glos to Exmoor, spreading E

Edited January 13, 2013 by bristol blizzard

[AWD]

The NMM for my location (East of Bristol) actually shows light snow from 19:00 tonight until 04:00 Monday morning before it turns to sleet and rain.

It then shows heavy rain Monday, then once that's cleared, a fragmented, narrow band of rain/sleet/snow is shown over the West Country then showery rain/sleet/snow showers over Somerset.

Edited January 13, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

yes entrenched cold will be great if we could get it

I agree wholdheartedly and that will be the most important factor of all.

How about the view from the latest NW input, the link below is based on Bristol.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

In terms of that, the reliable timeframe does indeed show reasonably entrenched cold right out to t+120, thereafter things change as expected.

Good so far.

[noggin]

Have we ruled out Monday and moved onto Thursdays events?

Looks like it to me.

I'm beginning to feel like a donkey with a carrot dangling on a stick in front of him (her)........it's always just out of reach.

I'm off to do the wallpaper stripping that I should have done yesterday.

Then, this afternoon, I shall sit down with a pot of tea and a plate of crumpets and watch The Day After Tomorrow.

See you all later, lovely peeps.

[Jason74]

Well, the 12z is what I am waiting for before drawing any conclusions about what the next few days are going to hold for the SW.

[BristolBlizzard]

I agree wholdheartedly and that will be the most important factor of all.

How about the view from the latest NW input, the link below is based on Bristol.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

In terms of that, the reliable timeframe does indeed show reasonably entrenched cold right out to t+120, thereafter things change as expected.

Good so far.

thanks yes that looks cold to me :0)

[Ali1977]

Is the east of the region still due snow tonight, then rain ?

[BristolBlizzard]

thanks yes that looks cold to me :0)

new met office updated warnings

http://www.metoffice...Time=1357992060

bristol just missing out but close and might change yet :0)

Edited January 13, 2013 by bristol blizzard

[Ali1977]

Swindon looking like a fair covering of snow looking at latest warnings

[gottolovethisweather]

Is the east of the region still due snow tonight, then rain ?

Try this.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Or this.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

Either that, or I would read back a few pages.

On another note, can you please update your profile to show your location.

[dec10snow]

Country file week ahead should be interesting, BBC 1, 12.20 (5 mins!)

Edit: my bad, the programme starts at 12.25!

Edited January 13, 2013 by dec10snow

[cerneman]

Blue Sky with sunshine, Cold with temps 4.0c,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Nice winters day, Not expecting too much overnight, maybe sleety turnung to rain, Think will be cold working week, uncertainty after this so enjoy week,

[Paul T]

Firstly, Im forgetting about developments later in the week for now, as snow is forecast today.

With regard to the next 18hrs, I have attached the ppn accumulations for UK up until tomorrow 6AM.

Anything highlighted within the red area (just focusing on the SW) will be snow.

Thats not too bad really, and I am sure that it will start lightly snowing across many parts of the region from 8/9pm tonight and give a cm or 2 before we wake up tomorrow.

With regard to Monday, i still can't believe that the Bristol area is progged 5oC by mid-day and rain. With Dew Points around 1oC on the NAE and 850's at a MAX of -4 you would have to say we would be unlucky if we dont see the warning increase a little....

One hope is to get this band approach from our NW to give a nice covering, therefore just helping keep temps down, but this is somewhat scraping the barrel!

Paul

[gottolovethisweather]

Judging by the latest radar imagery, the latest front nudging into some parts of Wales and the Northwest is progressively turning to SNOW as it heads slowly inland. The timing of this precipitation band looks very good for our region with quite high expectations of a faire few of us getting some action by evening time onwards.

[dec10snow]

Firstly, Im forgetting about developments later in the week for now, as snow is forecast today.

With regard to the next 18hrs, I have attached the ppn accumulations for UK up until tomorrow 6AM.

Anything highlighted within the red area (just focusing on the SW) will be snow.

Thats not too bad really, and I am sure that it will start lightly snowing across many parts of the region from 8/9pm tonight and give a cm or 2 before we wake up tomorrow.

With regard to Monday, i still can't believe that the Bristol area is progged 5oC by mid-day and rain. With Dew Points around 1oC on the NAE and 850's at a MAX of -4 you would have to say we would be unlucky if we dont see the warning increase a little....

One hope is to get this band approach from our NW to give a nice covering, therefore just helping keep temps down, but this is somewhat scraping the barrel!

Paul

Thanks Paul, nice to see that I'm at least on the boundary of the snow! I would preferably be more in that zone, but still!

[divadee]

Beautiful blue sky winters day. Temp at 3c and dew point at -2c

Will venture into the mod thread now. If I'm not back in half an hour can you come and find me????

[Mapantz]

3.6°C and sunny today. After yesterday's rain and the rain to come this week i think i'm well on the way to recording a tenth month in a row of above average rain.

[Evie]

Lovely fresh crisp day here in Exeter, 3c blue sky's with the sun shining through clouds, lovely breeze. Just seen the gritter van come up the hill spreading.