Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[SupaSnowy]

Wow 2/3 DP right on the south coast, that's no good. -5 upper air temp is ok.

[AWD]

Surely not with those upper and 2m temps?

It's not just about those though. The Upper air temps and thickness levels might be fine, but the Dewpoints are marginal and although I can't see myself, according to Ian the WBFL increases.

The last two are the main causes as to why it rains on Monday rather than snows.

[Nights King]

It's not just about those though. The Upper air temps and thickness levels might be fine, but the Dewpoints are marginal and although I can't see myself, according to Ian the WBFL increases.

The last two are the main causes as to why it rains on Monday rather than snows.

Could still be a surprise later in day after initial snow turning to rain...

Shall have to nowcast a little with such a marginal day tmoro although I dare say meto are pretty close to the mark.

Looking at radar for this evening it couldn't be much better timed for us really as we manage to get a good frost setting in first before front arrives. Wales will have a harder time as it's had all day to warm and settling snow would't be so easy away from hills.

Edited January 13, 2013 by mullender83

[SupaSnowy]

I was going to say don't forget about WBFL, I wish it was just the upper air temps and thickness levels, need so many things to come together for snow.

Also it's during the day. I still think there be some surprises somewhere.

[AWD]

Nice patch of 522DAM air over the West Country on midnight Tuesday;

Cold upper air temps.

Good signal for a very cold midweek period.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Metcheck have to be one of the most unreliable weather sites I have ever seen, though they are the only people allowing me to cling on to the last piece of hope because they say snow all day tomorrow for me. I wouldn't believe it when all of the other models are against it.

Yep i agree, metcheck have never been right - friday they have me down for around 7 inches of snow haha laughable!

[Sainsbo]

Yep i agree, metcheck have never been right - friday they have me down for around 7 inches of snow haha laughable!

Haha, you'll be lucky . Friday does currently seem good for snowfall, but much too early to even begin to firm up on details.

[SupaSnowy]

How is the NMM comparing to the NAE?

[AWD]

Is this what it looks like near you Mullender;

Friend sent me the pic from the Mendips.

[Lynxus]

Next GFS run in 15 mins!!

Albeit with less data.. Will be iteresting to see what it says now we have cold air and some input from the west.

[Nights King]

Is this what it looks like near you Mullender;

Friend sent me the pic from the Mendips.

Yes thanks thats just down road from me although its looking abit thinner still now. Thats literaly 1 min from mine too!

Edited January 13, 2013 by mullender83

[Aceman]

What the latest on tonight guys, should we be seeing a little of the white stuff??

Just finished assembling my new shed, in the nick of time hopefully!

[Lewesdon]

Howdy,

What is WBFL?

[AWD]

Last frame of the NAE shows a cold but dry day on Tuesday, away from the far South West;

Howdy,

What is WBFL?

Wet Bulb Freezing Level. The height above sea level that is favourable for snowfall.

[Lewesdon]

Last frame of the NAE shows a cold but dry day on Tuesday, away from the far South West;

Wet Bulb Freezing Level. The height above sea level that is favourable for snowfall.

Many thanks AWD

[Lynxus]

Last frame of the NAE shows a cold but dry day on Tuesday, away from the far South West;

Wet Bulb Freezing Level. The height above sea level that is favourable for snowfall.

Its when it becomes a Frozen Bulb . HAHAHAHAHAH.

Get it..

Frozen..

Instead of we.... Oh forget it.

Just entertaining until the GFS starts its run in 10 mins! Woop

[SupaSnowy]

Well the last few days GFS 06z has not been so good, and the 12z has always been alot better. Maybe it will follow that trend. We shell see.

[khodds]

Just wanted to say, someone on the Mod thread said earlier that NAE is struggling at the moment and doesn't put all things into consideration.

[karlos1983]

Strap up, here we go again, model watching has been like eating 4 meals a day recently!

Just wanted to say, someone on the Mod thread said earlier that NAE is struggling at the moment and doesn't put all things into consideration.

I saw that as well, but could well have been an IMBY comment/ramping hopeful, but here's to hoping

[AWD]

As the today's conditions, temperature is currently 2.9c and its bright and sunny currently.

Snowfall now starting to reach the Brecons.

[MP-R]

Just wanted to say, someone on the Mod thread said earlier that NAE is struggling at the moment and doesn't put all things into consideration.

And that's pretty clear by the fact that it shows rain where the snow-conducive dew points and uppers are haha. Recently it has almost shown the exact opposite of what should happen i.e. snow near the centre of the low and rain where the cold air enters the system on the back side. Very much a nowcast situation.

[Bristawl Si]

NAE has not covered itself in glory at times.

[Valhalla]

A friend of mine in North Wales has just posted a status update saying its snowing there

[Nights King]

A friend of mine in North Wales has just posted a status update saying its snowing there

good news lets just hope those mountains don't suck this band dry before it gets here....

[Mapantz]

I'm pretty sure numerous places in the west/south west will see a few flakes primarily but whether the NAE is struggling or not it's quite clear that it will be raining by dawn in the same places.