Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 13/01/13--->

[Continental Climate]

well if this was the first round of our severe cold spell i would give it an abysmal 2/10

hoping for better tommorrow and if that big clump of menacing cloud north of scotland is our next dumping then could be quite good, lets see what happens

[Alex95]

You can clearly see the line of heavier precipitation on the back edge of the front on the radar. It's starting to ease off slightly now.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Alza

[Freezing-Point]

grass and cars white, now settling on tarmac. looks like a covering after all. I suspose the forecasters have to report worst case...

[Snowmaggedon]

It's getting ever so heavier in Middlesbrough, can't see it laying though

[Alex95]

I wonder how long there is to go - it still hasn't settled on concrete surfaces.

[smogonthetyne]

It's been laying since 9 in Nunthorpe. That little extra elevation makes a massive differance

[Geordiesnow]

Its actually coming down at a fair rate of knots in fairness, nothing big fluffy snowflakes and its sounds a little sleety and wet but at least the front is showing a few signs of life, shame it could not do that when the air was that bit colder earlier!

[NickR]

Not as heavy here in Durham. No chance of this settling on surfaces other than cars, etc..

[Alex95]

It's seems like the heaviest snow right now is around the Morpeth area

[Andy_]

Its actually coming down at a fair rate of knots in fairness, nothing big fluffy snowflakes and its sounds a little sleety and wet but at least the front is showing a few signs of life, shame it could not do that when the air was that bit colder earlier!

Its definitely settling better than before, gives us more hope for tomorrow I think

[Geordiesnow]

Its definitely settling better than before, gives us more hope for tomorrow I think

Upper air temps are around -5 now(maybe a touch higher) and it is sleety admittedly but it certainly not the heaviest PPN over us you will see though.

But Alza makes a good point we don't really have much in the way of cold temps over us unlike this morning but I think people were worrying about temps last night and they still dropped by dawn so who knows!

Snow is not heavy enough for me to stare at the lamppost instead of Facebook but I'll check shortly again soon.

[Geordiesnow]

Just had another look and its settling on most surfaces except for concrete, as you kind of expect with very wet snow which this is in all fairness, I wish the front showed signs of backbuilding earlier on but we got to make the most of what we got I guess.

[NickR]

Just had another look and its settling on most surfaces except for concrete, as you kind of expect with very wet snow which this is in all fairness, I wish the front showed signs of backbuilding earlier on but we got to make the most of what we got I guess.

Pepped up here in Durham now, with similar settling.

[Isolated Frost]

Well, the NMM has actually upgraded tomorrows snow/sleet event, I guess it had to after downgrading it every run! Shows a smaller mild sector, more westward movement and mostly snow with sleet on the coast at 9am tomorrow whilst it previously had mostly sleet with rain on the coast, and snow above 200m.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Isolated Frost]

Starting to lay on concrete, very light, but this is a nice platform.

BBC predicting it will start off as rain, pass by, and come back in by the early afternoon, as snow.

[paul tall]

Not as heavy here in Durham. No chance of this settling on surfaces other than cars, etc..

You sure? We've got full cover here in Newton Aycliffe.

[peterf]

a damp squib here decent covering with temps having held at 0.2c for over the last hour.no precip showing on the radar either,never say never though.

infact temp just risen to 0.4c.

[Geordiesnow]

Starting to lay on concrete, very light, but this is a nice platform.

BBC predicting it will start off as rain, pass by, and come back in by the early afternoon, as snow.

Just goes to show how far out the UKMO model was doesnt it? Well done GFS for keep predicting the ever increasing mild sector.

I remember you talking to me yesterday about resolution of certain models, I can only guess upper air temps wise, GFS runs a higher resolution than the UKMO does because the UKMO uppers do seem more "organised" rather than the more "bitey" GFS uppers can be, hence why GFS charts can often look so much messier than the UKMO charts, especially after 96 hours!

[NickR]

You sure? We've got full cover here in Newton Aycliffe.

When I posted, yes. Now we have a dusting on tarmac but not concrete.

[gazzac69]

snow easing off now, as per radar, left a bit of a dusting will probably freeze now, maybe a little taster of things to come tomorrow if metoffice warnings are still valid.

[NickR]

Just goes to show how far out the UKMO model was doesnt it? Well done GFS for keep predicting the ever increasing mild sector.

I remember you talking to me yesterday about resolution of certain models, I can only guess upper air temps wise, GFS runs a higher resolution than the UKMO does because the UKMO uppers do seem more "organised" rather than the more "bitey" GFS uppers can be, hence why GFS charts can often look so much messier than the UKMO charts, especially after 96 hours!

But doesn't that now go AGAINST an NMM upgrade, as IF said?

[peterf]

ive got the full subscription on here, and lets just say i aint been impressed with any of the output so far.

[P-M]

Moderate snow right on the coast here and beginning to stick.

[Isolated Frost]

But doesn't that now go AGAINST an NMM upgrade, as IF said?

NMM says it will begin as snow, but goes very quickly and so only delivers 2-3 hours of snow, stalls, comes back for an hour, and then after 2pm, it's dry. BBC forecast says it begins as rain during the rush hour, slowly turns to snow whilst it stalls, moves out to sea before coming back in for a whole afternoon of snow.

Both snowy solutions, one less risky but minimises the positive (NMM: all snow, but very little of it), and the other very risky but maximises the positive (BBC: rain and snow, but lots of it, so if we get the right side of it, we are in big luck).

NAE is superb again. Will be an interesting day. GFS takes about 0.5c/1c off the temps tomorrow on the 18z, which is a small positive, which could prove vital when it comes to the extreme marginality of it all. Heavy rain at Tynemouth and heavy snow at Gateshead- or heavy rain at Sunderland and heavy snow at Durham are all real possibilities tomorrow.

[peterf]

it's all to play for and the lamp post still looks the best option.