North West England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ------>

[Brass_Monkeys]

It's certainly pepping up now , but i think it might just slide south of here, but if it continues to intensify then i might be in luck later

Yes there looks to be a little bit of shower activity behind the front. Remains to be seen whether this will continue once the front has got well clear of the region. Fingers crossed the showers continue to build and head into the region with a wintry flavour

[Bartlett Low]

Ok, if by fluke it intensifies, and lets face it its a pretty difficult science, I'd like to see things evolve. Even electronically.

Weather modelling as a science is really in its infancy.

[widnesgas]

Snow turned to rain here in widnes.

[Bartlett Low]

Above fr itsnowjoke

[jam2010]

the radar shows light ppn over Manchester but we are currently having the heaviest shower of night strange nice to see all white

[pip22]

still snowing here. Acording to the Radar it is a odd snow flurry here.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Brass_Monkeys]

Ok, if by fluke it intensifies, and lets face it its a pretty difficult science, I'd like to see things evolve. Even electronically.

Weather modelling as a science is really in its infancy.

No two weather patterns are ever the same - this in itself tells us it is near on impossible to ever be able to predict the weather with 100% accuracy.

I do believe forecasts are getting better but even events at 12-24hrs can still go awry.

We all get deflated when forecasts go the way of the pear but that unpredictability can sometimes yield pleasant surprises

[Jan]

Ok I've got my sensible, grown up head on now, I have loved extreme weather for years, spent so many winters on here hoping and wishing for the model output to be 'game on' as they say. The snow event of 2010, I read all the charts etc but was totally taken by surprise when I looked out the window and it was chucking it down with huge snowflakes and my car was buried, I vividly remember how eery it felt that afternoon before it happend. I now try not to get caught up in the mayhem that ensues any 'model output', but yet again I got carried away this time too. Extreme snow or any weather events here are very rare because of the geography of the area. There is a good excuse for just putting your head out the window and seeing whats going on Disallusioned phfffft

[SP1986]

Just drizzle here now...

[Bartlett Low]

Too true Jan, nailed it.

Actually beginning to get a covering here on shed etc.

But is it possible to get an early 80s waist deep fall in low lying northwest?

I say it isn't possible. Going off the the anecdotes from family of 80year olds in Preston It hasn't happened in living memory!

Northwest is the worst place to live in the uk for snow IMO.

[Brass_Monkeys]

Looks like the next weather front is showing its hand to the west of the Western Isles

[Backtrack]

Flakes are blowing past the lamppost indicating that conditions are ripe for snow, and whatever is about to fall will indeed be of snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

God knows on what model these forecasts are based but for my area the BBC has from saturday onwards, snow falling on 4 consectutive nights with no probability rating yet they have the most ridiculas range of temperatures showing, surely if they are going to give forecasts 10 days ahead there has to be some forecaster interpretation involved, yes i am aware that you could not have people sifting through the output adjusting it for every day in every location as that would cost a fortune but there must be some king of % chance of snow / rain, they are saying snow but saying it could be anything from -4 to +10 as an eg, well in Jan in britain that really narrows it down doesnt it!!! how can it possibly be 10c if it snows so therefore there must be some margin included for weather type as well as temp, anyway the upshot is i will believe it when i see the 4 days and nights of falling snow consec.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3

Click the further ahead tab.

Flakes are blowing past the lamppost indicating that conditions are ripe for snow, and whatever is about to fall will indeed be of snow.

Dusting here now, still snowing.

Edited January 13, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Darren Bown]

This chart doesn't bode too well for tomorrow.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Darren Bown

[Backtrack]

This chart doesn't bode too well for tomorrow.

Hahahaha! Snow for the immediate coastline, rain inland. Yeah, right. Get a grip NAE, such a useless model!

[Darren Bown]

Hahahaha! Snow for the immediate coastline, rain inland. Yeah, right. Get a grip NAE, such a useless model!

That's true!

[itsnowjoke]

Goodnight all and gl had enough for now byeee

[cheshire snow]

This chart doesn't bode too well for tomorrow.

Next one updates about 10

C.S

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Looks likethat streamer is off for me bt but it all go for you

[Bartlett Low]

Bbc's "relatively" new horrendously large range of temps after 5 days seem to be pulled of the ensemble extremes?

Dunno but without a doubt they will be right. Unfortunately renders the page a worthless visit if you are looking for a insight into the next week.

[SparkleS]

Just the very odd flake starting to come down now, the wind is definately picking up, and my weather app is showing rain/sleet and lightening! Lol

[Snow free zone]

Just been outside. Covering on the grass, road and pavements. Much warmer now and is currently raining lightly.

[NickyB]

Flakes are blowing past the lamppost indicating that conditions are ripe for snow, and whatever is about to fall will indeed be of snow.

What's your temperature there ? It's been a steady 1.4 above all evening here

[Nbrasso]

Had a dusting of snow here, it's still snowing and the temperature is steady at 1.3c

[Brass_Monkeys]

Looks like some showers are heading into the Liverpool Bay area towards the Cheshire gap