Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06z has the cold air further east by T66 with only EA and parts of the south and midlands in under -5 air, however lets see what sort of fight back it mounts from here

Yeah, could be better for frontal snow making it further East?

[Snowly does it]

Yeah, could be better for frontal snow making it further East?

Yep, that is what we have thus far

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

heavy snow fri for many on gfs06z

[Buzz]

The 2m charts show a rise in temp from Sunday onwards.

http://www.meteociel...ode=8&archive=0

That's the BOM Australian model which has yet to prove itself (it's also more 'tweaked' for Australia). To get a better idea of the likely weather for the UK in the days ahead it would be best to stick to analysing the UKMO, ECM and GFS output (in that order).

[Dave Kightley]

Always goes east on the 06z. Dont rate it at all

[Anti-Mild]

The fact that the cold is a little further east on this run is of little concern. What may cause a few flutters is lower heights to the NE, although out to +81 and to be honest there isn't too much difference.

[joggs]

Didnt the gfs6z yest have things further east only to be pushed back west on the 12z?

[MKN]

Didnt the gfs6z yest have things further east only to be pushed back west on the 12z?

I'm sure the 06z has been like that most of the winter tbh

[I remember Atlantic 252]

surely UKMO on its own? this 06Z is great for Friday, ECMWF shows trough making it to East coast, UK met seems to have it miles further west, dry for central England

[chionomaniac]

GFS 06z just ensuring that the whole country sees some snow before the block pushes back!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS 06z just ensuring that the whole country sees some snow before the block pushes back!

fingers crossed looking GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD

[johnholmes]

this link may be of interest?

[Catacol]

i explained in my post a few minutes ago the worry was that we would become the parking zone for low heights.

.. and there is not much wrong with that if you already have entrenched cold, and a continental flow. This is not conventional atlantic zonality - not least because the source of the low pressure systems is very cold in the first place, but also because there is little to no SW air feed into the system for as long as we have the NW/SE undercut axis of flow.

These current charts are very good for snow - this ECM chart for Monday could well be a wall to wall snow event, if uppers in the south can be maintained at -2 or thereabout.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

06Z looks like blowing the block away very quickly.hmmm

[swfc]

pressure to the north east almost gone at 120hrs.very progressive run but who nos???

[EML Network]

OUCH ! if it comes to pass as modeled ...it's going to be an almost exact repeat of yesterday ...dew points in the extreme South and South West would be too high....snow turning to rain would be the order of the day, and those lucky lucky lucky Easter counties would hit the jackpot for a second time in the space of one working week.

Plenty of time for it all to change though

[WhiteFox]

I'm sure the 06z has been like that most of the winter tbh

Yes it has. I think it's replaced the 12z as being the most progressive in terms of bringing in the Atlantic and, anecdotally (my anecdotes to be precise!) it has been the poorest verifying during this cold spell. We should be basking temperatures of 10oC according to the 6z as late as Saturday just gone! I will not be at all surprised if the 12z shows the colder air further west again.

Having said that, JH makes an interesting point wrt the upper flow; all the models seem to be in good agreement, so it seems the Atlantic will try and break through, but we will see varying degrees of encroachment from each run. It really will come down to t+36 I think!

[Rocheydub]

GFS 06z just ensuring that the whole country sees some snow before the block pushes back!

Unfortunately leaving us under cold rain for the duration. The beast from the east is more of a toothless gnat for Ireland. Even the feint hopes we had for Wed/Thurs are the wrong side of marginal if the GFS is to be believed. I will hope that the hires will bring some better chances!!!

[TEITS]

Didnt the gfs6z yest have things further east only to be pushed back west on the 12z?

Yes happens every time and did in Feb 2012.

Still im happy with the snow potential on Friday that is being shown on this run.

One problem with the GFS in general is it over deepening those LPs within the vortex?? Answer is quiet possibly.

OUCH ! if it comes to pass as modeled ...it's going to be an almost exact repeat of yesterday ...dew points in the extreme South and South West would be too high....snow turning to rain would be the order of the day, and those lucky lucky lucky Easter counties would hit the jackpot for a second time in the space of one working week.

Plenty of time for it all to change though

Luck doesn't really have much to do with it. As a general rule snowfall distribution in the UK increases the further N/E you are away from the Atlantic. Now based on the output this is going to be especially true towards the end of the week.

Edited January 15, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[ChartViewer]

CMA Short term holds cold in until Sunday, with mixing out of uppers around 20th.......Last night it wanted to pick up on a signal of Height rises around Greenland on about 25th...Today its T216 Chart indicates something similiar...wonder if it keeps running with this scenario ...will keep an eye on it as it moves down T192, T168 etc...would expect the big 3 to pick up on it at some stage anyhow if its a goer for GH Height rises.

CMA 240 Potential

Edited January 15, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Pembroke Dangler]

06z gfs to progressive I think pushing the front through on Friday, that will likely correct west and south by the 12z fingers crossed! Otherwise a 6-12 hour snow to sleet then rain event before fizzling out and a ridge builds behind it!

[Dave Kightley]

Are everyone sure that the 06z and 18Z dont have bias during blocked patterns witb 06zbeing E and 18Z w why u see lovely charts esp on that run. 9 times outta 10 by down to earth on the 00Z?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The simple fact is that the GFS 06z takes the LP too far North on a W - E track, where as the UKMO and ECM take the LP further South on a more NW - SE track. GFS out on it's own at the moment.

[Troubleatmill]

I actually think this 06z isnt too bad, if you look north east there is a large pool of cold air coming down into Scaninavia, we need this as in the past few runs our supplies of cold have been running low over there, so if there is a 'brief' less cold two or three days we would have a fresh supply of cold air to tap into.

and yes, Lincs, Yorkshire up to Northumerland and Durham are always going to fare best with the odd exeption, that is just the way it is, they are counties furthest from the mild atlantic and first and last to get cold from the North east.

Not the same i know but the reverse is true of rain for the west, not funny as a westerner but thats the way it goes.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Nick JB

[chionomaniac]

I am interested in the possibility in heights building behind that Atlantic trough around days 8-10. Signs are there.

Edited January 15, 2013 by chionomaniac