North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[UV-RAY]

Exactly, there will be a lot of cheerleading in the model thread to back it all West as that could then pull their easterly in.

Ha Ha, I've noticed that myself Ian, have you noticed though they never comment on how we need the block to move Westwards so us and Ireland benefit. Lets hope all those in the West benefit from this.

[The Northern Ramper]

Think it'll trend eastwards on tomorrow's runs. Can't see it backing any further west.

It won't get over the Irish Sea now you have said that.

[johnwirral]

The further West the better but you would think that that would benefit you overall, the second front just blasts through and turns back to rain so you would'nt have cover for very long. A long way to go but i am thinking this region may not do that well, West Midlands the best place to be IMO (where i used to live) GRRRRRR!

I'd take foot of snow over the chance of nothing, we don't see much of the white stuff here

Edited January 15, 2013 by johnwirral

[feb1991blizzard]

I still think the forecasters are over doing the Atlantic and this block will be a hard one to shift, with the strat warming already starting to affect us but yet to peak, the atlantic is going to get less strong and a proper NErly / Easterly possible down the line but like i say, its going to have to be a mighty potent one to benefit the majority of members in this regional forum.

[Stephen_Mcr]

Off to bed hoping for a slight push eastwards on the 0z to bring in the snow towards the end of the week, then to the easterly next week with clear crisp blue skies, bitter temperatures and 2ft of snow on the ground...

[greybing]

-3.1C here and dropping quickly. I'm near the town centre too

-3 in my area too.It looks like it shall be cold ,cold night.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'd take foot over snow over the chance of nothing, we don't see much of the white stuff here

Yes i agree, i would take a massive snow to rain event over nothing, particularly as teleconnections dont support a zonal onslaught and any cyclonic spell is likely to be a cold one with low heights likely to predominate over France throughout the rest of Jan, MJO composites supports a Noreaster.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

There could be some snow Thursday night, one to watch.

[feb1991blizzard]

-5c here already, probably lower because that reading is probably for oldham town centre.

[Jan]

I've checked the 18z hmm it still looks ok for our area as far as I can make out, but I'm picking up on some negative posts, am I missing something or misread the charts

[johnwirral]

I've checked the 18z hmm it still looks ok for our area as far as I can make out, but I'm picking up on some negative posts, am I missing something or misread the charts

Still looking good for Liverpool on the GFS, but has backed west we don't want to see it going back much further

[feb1991blizzard]

I've checked the 18z hmm it still looks ok for our area as far as I can make out, but I'm picking up on some negative posts, am I missing something or misread the charts

For your area its still ok as it stands, certainly compared to your normal amounts of snow, but the margin for error is getting less, could all upgrade tommorow, still all to play for but just slightly concerned as it stands, the Met office map only showing the light snow sybol as well.

[MrSunshine]

Still looking good for Liverpool on the GFS, but has backed west we don't want to see it going back much further

Don't want to see it going back west at all, don't think I could take another near miss!

[Snow free zone]

Cant quite belive i could end up being too far east for snow !

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

-11 windchill on saturday morning

[feb1991blizzard]

Cant quite belive i could end up being too far east for snow !

The GFS 18z was an absolute rip snorter for parts of Ireland - some big falls there if that verifyed.

[MrSunshine]

Cant quite belive i could end up being too far east for snow !

Its soo ironic isn't, almost makes me wanna puke!

[k19]

Really didn't expect it to get beaten back west, I though a more eastward progression would occur! Should have a firm grasp by this time tomorrow or, at least thursday morning. Anything until then is just swings and roundabouts so don't let one run i.e this 18z convince you otherwise.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

This is the pub run remember

[feb1991blizzard]

Really didn't expect it to get beaten back west, I though a more eastward progression would occur! Should have a firm grasp by this time tomorrow or, at least thursday morning. Anything until then is just swings and roundabouts so don't let one run i.e this 18z convince you otherwise.

yes althouh I think we might have to wait until friday night and beyond though to get a handle on the weekend fully and certainly how far the block gets pushed by early next week!

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 18z ensemble mean for lunch time Friday

Control....

Edited January 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

For what it is worth, the GEFS mean PPN charts are a stonker for the whole country!!!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

EDIT : Crewe cold beat me to it!

Edited January 15, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[cfallon]

You go away for a few hours and its back to suicide watch! Lol don't think i can take much more!

[johnwirral]

Wait and see, Ian Brown seems fairly confident so something must be on the cards. We need all the ducks to line up in a row to get snow here, so forget sustained cold lets go for the snow.

Edited January 15, 2013 by johnwirral

[feb1991blizzard]

You go away for a few hours and its back to suicide watch! Lol don't think i can take much more!

Im not throwing in the towell, i have not thread the whole thread so appologies if this is not correct but judging by the euphoria in the MOD, you would think the whole country was guaranteed a stonker, not giving up like i say, prospects good for next 2 weeks but i would just urge a modicum of caution thats all.

Lets hope for an upgrade on the 0zs