North West England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Brass_Monkeys]

Morning

Currently -3.3c after a low of -4.6c

[HotCuppa]

currently -3.1C and rising

[itsnowjoke]

Still -4c

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

-4.6 here dp -6 windchill -7 cars look like they been the north pole for the night

[itsnowjoke]

Met office only have me down for snow Friday nothing tomorrow or Saturday

[itsnowjoke]

-4.6 here dp -6 windchill -7 cars look like they been the north pole for the night

yes here too brrrr

[R.P. McMurphy]

Big upgrade for costal areas this morning, and this ties in nicely with the latest BBC forecast for Friday. Costal areas could also see some wintry weather tomorrow too. Looking excellent for Friday, with another front pushing in Saturday.

[Weather-history]

Just look at these 2m GFS temperature ensembles for Manchester

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

[SummerNSnow]

Haha I think we've all been exhibiting strange behaviours of sorts.

Ive just eaten 24 seafood sticks in quick concession without even realising.

All washed down with 1.5 litres of dandelion and burdock I now feel rather sick

OMG! That made me laugh!!

[Brass_Monkeys]

Just look at these 2m GFS temperature ensembles for Manchester

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

With the control very much on the mild side of the ensembles especially later in the run

[raul_sbd]

-2.2 in Altrincham now 85% Humidity after a low of -3.7

[snowjoking]

-6c here at moment

[R.P. McMurphy]

Just look at these 2m GFS temperature ensembles for Manchester

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

That's quite sustained cold - it's not even that scattered either, looks fairly solid. It does not tie in much with what GP said in regards to a warm up for a few days though.

Looking excellent for snow Friday in Irlam WH.

With the control very much on the mild side of the ensembles especially later in the run

0-5C Mild? Eh?

[V for Very Cold]

this is bizarre.... NetW downgrades ppn forcasts... and now the BBC seems to be getting on board and actually saying we will get snow - looks like a case of nowcasting by the time we get to Friday

[Liam J]

GFS 00z has light snow/snow showers pushing in later tomorrow ahead of the main band and it's still snowing as we head into the early hours of Saturday! Is it our time in the NW?! Add into that gusts of 40-50mph towards western coasts which would mean blizzard conditions and severe wind chill.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Liam J

[R.P. McMurphy]

Certainly is our time Liam! We could get a few snow showers tomorrow, but Friday & Saturday & even possibly Sunday.... Ohhh them East boys are going to be jealous!!!

[Spurry]

minimum of -5.5c last night , some cloud high up now....GFS 00z looks good for friday/sat/sunday , looks like it could be a good weekend

[Brass_Monkeys]

That's quite sustained cold - it's not even that scattered either, looks fairly solid. It does not tie in much with what GP said in regards to a warm up for a few days though.

Looking excellent for snow Friday in Irlam WH.

0-5C Mild? Eh?

The latest 00z GFS run as shown by the blue line (Kontroll-Lauf) is above the mean and one of the milder options available in the ensemble suite

[Spurry]

Certainly is our time Liam! We could get a few snow showers tomorrow, but Friday & Saturday & even possibly Sunday.... Ohhh them East boys are going to be jealous!!!

Hi Glen , don't get too confident , we've all seen these scenarios too many times to start counting chickens, although i have to agree if it does come off it will be good to be living here and not Landan and the East...but i won't believe anything till i see it.

[Liam J]

Got my eye on that ppn out west as it seems to be heading closer, already had some snow flurries so don't be surprised if you see snow falling today.

Once we (if lol) have snow cover then expect some bitterly cold nights with minimums breaking the minus double digit barrier

Edited January 16, 2013 by Liam J

[simon29]

Im confused are we all going to get heavy snow here in the northwest or just parts of the region, im in blackburn, what should i expect on friday and saturday

[Brass_Monkeys]

Got my eye on that ppn out west as it seems to be heading closer, already had some snow flurries so don't be surprised if you see snow falling today.

Once we have snow cover then expect some bitterly cold nights with minimums breaking the minus double digit barrier

It has made decent progress West overnight. I didn't think it would actually come so far. Starting to fragment quite readily but certainly can't rule out a flurry or two the further West you are

[Liam J]

Looking at Friday the wind chill values as the SE'ly wind picks up will be around -10c perhaps lower! If your travelling then take some warm clothes and blankets etc.

[snowdrifter]

I just feel happy like its two days before Christmas. So hope the prezzie still comes!!

[chris78]

Im confused are we all going to get heavy snow here in the northwest or just parts of the region, im in blackburn, what should i expect on friday and saturday

were all confused...well uncertain anyway, anyone whos says otherwise is overconfident! At one point yesterdasy models had you (and me) to far north..then too far east....atm we are in the firing line, but this will probably change every model run....in situations like this I wont believe any of the models or forecasts even up to T1......that doesnt mean I wont be disappointed if it doesnt snow...

you have more right to be hopeful that me...historically the 20 miles between Preston and Blackburn makes all the difference.....you see lots more snow than us....