Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Panayiotis]

Just seen a couple of snowflakes here in Cardiff!

[Cymro]

Very light fluffy snow here in Cardiff, any heavier precip and we could be looking at quite a wide spread thin covering this evening methinks

[CRACKPOT]

Heavier snow now in Gilfach - where did this come from - not forecast really....???

JK

[marclt]

Snowfall accumulations up to midday Friday from NAE and GFS:

Take these with a pinch of salt given the number of factors involved in predicting snowfall but it doesn't suggest there will be any significant break-point. The big issue at this stage is how far west will the snow extend...

They take no account of topography which can play a difference in accumulations...

[DeepSnow]

Stopped snowing here, nothing settled either, was very nice to see

[Carl46Wrexham]

A few tiny flakes in the bitter wind.

Temp : -1.5c

Wind chill -5c

[virtualsphere]

They take no account of topography which can play a difference in accumulations...

I'd agree looking at the GFS chart, although would suggest the NAE does (in a very simplistic way) due to the different snow depths shown in the SE, mid and north Wales which, assuming a S / SSE flow would lead to areas sheltered by the valleys and mountains getting less. Not for a moment expecting these to be completely accurate though.

[bradymk]

18z NAE, Precip accumulations come out before the main output and these show a BIG shift west of the precip with only 3mm in Manchester, bristol 9-10mm. South Wales still up to 20mm with a shift west for sure! this alway seems to happen before these type of events.

[benb]

18z NAE, Precip accumulations come out before the main output and these show a BIG shift west of the precip with only 3mm in Manchester, bristol 9-10mm. South Wales still up to 20mm with a shift west for sure! this alway seems to happen before these type of events.

I guess that suggests the warmer air may not encroach as far into the SW either?

[The Weather Dragon]

18z NAE, Precip accumulations come out before the main output and these show a BIG shift west of the precip with only 3mm in Manchester, bristol 9-10mm. South Wales still up to 20mm with a shift west for sure! this alway seems to happen before these type of events.

Brady - is this looking better for Pembs

[KidCarm]

Hi all, not long got home from Carmarthen and it was snowing quite a bit in Idole and Llandyfaelog, the grass verges had quite a bit stuck to them too. Just wet in Kidwelly though. Not expecting much here for Friday, snow to rain quite quickly I think. Hope I'm wrong though.

Hope you easterners enjoy it all.

[bradymk]

Brady - is this looking better for Pembs

Hard to tell until rest of the output is released in around 5-10 minutes, will let you know however the shift west in precip accumulations does suggest a shift west in all other aspects ie, dew points, wbfl, uppers etc.

[goosey007]

18z NAE, Precip accumulations come out before the main output and these show a BIG shift west of the precip with only 3mm in Manchester, bristol 9-10mm. South Wales still up to 20mm with a shift west for sure! this alway seems to happen before these type of events.

what are we saying then.....the front is starting to show signs of stalling over the south west? Edited January 16, 2013 by goosey007

[J10]

It has been snowing lightly here for about 2 hrs, this has given a dusting on grass/roofs/cars, but not settling on pavements, really could do with real freeze overnight.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Jackone

[Bristawl Si]

what are we saying then.....the front is startign to show signs of stalling over the south west?

More like S Wales and far south west! I think.

[ourson]

Very fine snow in Cardiff at the moment. Hardly noticeable but nice to see. A sign of things to come methinks.

As I've said in previous years - EIRA BACH, EIRA MAWR!!

[Wales123098]

Snowing here settling on all surfaces has been for an hour now.

[marclt]

Still snowing lightly here. Temp around -0.1, dew point of -0.9. The air feels remarkably cold even though it is snowing.

[The Weather Dragon]

Any comments regarding Mondays undercutting low potential?

[dyl232]

So by the look of things now is the west more likely to see most snow??

[goosey007]

More like S Wales and far south west! I think.

surely not that far west? the bbc graphics would be totally wrong cannot see tham making that big an error this close in....??

speaking of errors the met office has my location down for heavy snow from 21.00 cant see nothing outside though lol

[Marcus_surfer]

Monday looking very interesting too, low pulling up from southwest, , before pulling in colder air from east.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Rainfall radar from met office showing the band shrinking an fragmenting as it heads I to the Bristol Channel!

Good taster of what's to come and the bbc forecast this to be light rain or drizzle so I think they are underestimating the temperature and this could play into our hands I feel for Friday!! More westward corrections to come I feel parts of Pembrokeshire could now get in the game

[bradymk]

Cant describe how shocked i am at how west this NAE run is. Comparison between 12z and 18z for tomorrow (not friday) Huge shift west of precip

Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[mickeyflyn]

looking at the met office radar the snow will miss Newport all together as it appears to be fizzling out and sliding west of me.i doubt very much we will see any at all.