London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Tilly]

Faversham is East kent....-

Central Kent is Ashford North up to the medway-

West/ north kent- Gravesend- Wrotham / hextable etc-

S

Thank you Mr Murr, Oh Wise One

[anything-but]

There's some very dark clouds to the North of me, nothing on the radar though

Where are you Daniel as my O/H said the same thing just now to me! Told me to go look out the bedroom window where i can see from lower higham towards Tilbury powerstation and it`s getting dark/cloudy here too.

[Met4Cast]

Where are you Daniel as my O/H said the same thing just now to me! Told me to go look out the bedroom window where i can see from lower higham towards Tilbury powerstation and it`s getting dark/cloudy here too.

I'm in Rochester, nothing falling from them though sadly

[MrsB28]

Where are you Daniel as my O/H said the same thing just now to me! Told me to go look out the bedroom window where i can see from lower higham towards Tilbury powerstation and it`s getting dark/cloudy here too.

I'm in Stanford le hope and its gone quite dark here!

[Snowangel-MK]

10 minutes? I read it in about 45 seconds lol

and I just looked at the pretty picture....

...that was good enough for me

[Tilly]

quite dark and very cloudy here but that blob is going to miss us totally...I think

[Coast]

but that blob is going to miss us totally...I think

[SnowBungle]

I'm in Rochester, nothing falling from them though sadly

Sitting in my front room in Rainham, the clouds to the north have a distinctly 'snowy' hue to them. That odd browny/yellowy/mauve colour.

[lawrenk]

There is a very interesting post about the weekend on page 10 of this thread

Yes, brilliant post from Shrimper highlighting the possibilities and pitfalls for Friday and Saturday. Tricky to know what to hope for really. If the block tightens it's grip and the low doesn't reach us or heads too far south we keep the cold but potentially miss out on any precipitation. Alternatively we get something coming from the sky but maybe not the type we want and then cold spell over, for us at least, though maybe not for long if we get another push from the north east at the end of the month. The ideal scenario of an all snow event would need a good deal of luck it seems to me but perhaps we're due some?

[Joker]

Weekend looking marginal and the battleground for snow being the whole of central Britain. Many may be disappointed again! We really need more cold uppers feeding in from our NE and E to give us some real winter potency. This knife edge stuff is beginning to get tiring!

[crazy_diamond]

I think the only white flakes I'll get to see are from the soap powder plant in Grays! Ugh.

CD

[anything-but]

I'm in Stanford le hope and its gone quite dark here!

off topic but can you chop your phone mast down over there as I keep picking the signal up from it and not my local one!

[Southender]

BLOBWATCH:

Anyone South/South West of me, forget it I am afraid.

Anyone South East of me, you are in with a shot. You will need the blob to pick up some energy from the mouth of the Thames though, to give a chance of a dusting/covering. It may well do just that.

[Coast]

OK, buckle up folks GFS 12z now on it's way out!!!

[damp patch]

Dark clouds rolling in here now. Temp remains at 0.9c

What chance this being one of those occasions where the radar suddenly bursts into life over Kent - seemingly from nowhere ?

Ok.... I will dream on.......

[anything-but]

Just @ medway hospital now and the clouds in the distance definitely have that yellowy/greeny tint to them in the distance.

Edited January 15, 2013 by anything-but

[Jimmyh]

Exactly what I was saying Steve.

GFS pressure charts suggest we are the right side of marginal at present. The centre of the low slips down the Irish Sea into Devon. As shown here -

Then, it takes a big dive SSE into NW France, as shown here - This is the key point for me. If it doesn't dive sharply as progged. It is game over.

It then starts to swing back ENE over Mid-France. And as Steve says, the centre of the Low stays to our South at ALL times. That is key. If the centre of the low starts to be modelled tracking up the Channel over the next couple of days, then start to worry. As that will give us a snow to rain scenario, whilst the Midlands north get buried!

Let's see how it pans out. But for my health I would like to see very very slight corrections South of this low pressure over the next couple of days. Not too far South mind or we could miss it altogether, but perhaps stay colder for longer. Catch 22 situation!

Anyhow, if the block to our NE is feeling particularly strong. The Low may not even get anywhere near our region. So many questions and so few answers at present. All we can do is look at what we have available, make a call and hope for the best.

But from experience and I am not trying to put a downer on this. Frontal snowfall from the Atlantic, very rarely does what we want it to in our locale. With a snow to rain scenario the common theme. Certainly in modern times. The Midlands north "usually" do the best out of these setups. But, who am I to say that this time it wont be different....

Temp: 1.2c

Dew: -1c

Here in Sarfend Steve.

Such a great post thought it should be moved to the front of the thread

[Southender]

Dark clouds rolling in here now. Temp remains at 0.9c

What chance this being one of those occasions where the radar suddenly bursts into life over Kent - seemingly from nowhere ?

Ok.... I will dream on.......

It will need to pick up some energy from the Thames. It is dying rapidly unfortunately for you East Kent folk.

[Buzzit]

Hi All - i thought I would try my hand at a post regarding Friday before the 12z's come out (I hope it may help some of you)

My area of focus is the 850s on Friday 18th 1am.

Concerning the 0z output the UKMO was best - then ECM concerning the 850s

Now looking at the 6z GFS the 850s are not as good as the colder values have shifted further east

In order to make sure we have a snow event come the weekend (dependant on the actual track of lows etc to be correct) We do not want to see movement of the colder 850s further East on the 12z GFS/ECM/UKMO and future runs - as further eastward progression makes rain much more likely

So while we are still some way from any event on the weekend - the only thing I am really interested in at the moment is 850 temps staying around -5 (meaning the cold is staying put)

Cheers

Edited January 15, 2013 by Buzzit

[blackprince]

BLOBWATCH:

Anyone South/South West of me, forget it I am afraid.

Anyone South East of me, you are in with a shot. You will need the blob to pick up some energy from the mouth of the Thames though, to give a chance of a dusting/covering. It may well do just that.

I think it will blow across to Thanet and miss us in Herne Bay,web cam at whitstable yacht club pointing north shows dark cloud "blob" just off Sheppey direction with wind blowing NW...

[A Wintry Mix]

It will need to pick up some energy from the Thames. It is dying rapidly unfortunately for you East Kent folk.

What a surprise, looks like our nieghbours have had a treat though!

[95 Degrees]

Weekend looking marginal and the battleground for snow being the whole of central Britain. Many may be disappointed again! We really need more cold uppers feeding in from our NE and E to give us some real winter potency. This knife edge stuff is beginning to get tiring!

I have be going for a cold end to January and into early feb for some time, which looks quite probable, but at least we should get some hard frosts and it will be icy with all the surface water in place currently, Friday looks mildly interesting but I think Saturday will just be rain here.

[VillagePlank]

Temp 1.3c, Dp -1.3c

[Coast]

Just getting into Friday now and here it comes!

[Coast]

Damn!!! The battleground is wide and central!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Coast