London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Kent Snow]

Met released a warning for me in east Kent for tomorrow. 10cm it says. West Kent won't see any. Met offoce has snow all day for canterbury tomorrow!

Sounds good!

3C and rather windy at work in Manston currently.

[Southender]

Note the NW-SE tilt to the warning area on Friday. They are obviously seeing the possibility of the LP diving into NW France, as seen on this mornings GFS run.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If not Friday... How about Monday ? :/

[Guest bjaykent]

onto friday-

its a developing one- UKMO is good today- ECM is fast-

A quandry if you like-

What would you have-

* the PPN to miss to the SE & be dry

* the PPN to arrive- see heavy snow & then potentially turn to rain- ( of course it could slide through & stay as snow )

the UKMO is awsome at 72 & 96

http://www.meteociel...72-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima- biting SE wind & PPN approaching

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?15-06 heavy snow moving in

at 120 the weather for the SE is heavy blowing snow- but when you run to the 144 the milder air has crept in-

we will need the centre of the low to stay to our SOUTH-

all in all an interesting week- getting colder by night & day- odd trough here & there & a possible main event later

S

This weekend’s weather scenario reminds me of being at school, probably 1981 or 1982, with similar frontal snow set up. it started snowing overnight Saturday and most of the day Sunday. Didn’t do any homework as there was no way school would be open Monday. Then late afternoon – drip, drip, drip. Nearly all gone by Monday morning. Unfortunately still hadn’t done maths homework. Quickly copied someone else before the lesson. Got it back the next day with 2 out of 10 crossed out and replaced by 1 out 10 with the word copied underlined and two comments

1. Never rely on the British weather

2. If you must copy someone’s homework at least pick someone who can count!

So the moral is be careful what you wish for, might see some snow but it could all be gone by Monday and sound advice from my old maths teacher, never rely on the British Weather (models rarely verify with any accuracy when it comes to snow events, not even within 24/48 hour period – it’s all now casting just as it was back in the 1980’s).

[Average Joe]

New poster on these things, but have been reading them for a while now in an attempt to grasp what may happen a few days down the road, as what I do job wise is heavily dependent on whether snow arrives. I seem to be in a huge minority in that I'm glad it's not here in Surrey, and that I'm very happy that it's been that way. Hopefully the forecasts for the next few days are correct, even though I keep reading about these "epic" events on one of the other forums.....the "yes it is", "no it isn't" one, which is really off putting for someone trying to get a handle on the upcoming situation!

[Southender]

If not Friday... How about Monday ? :/

No, that one would barrel straight through us I'm afraid. All rain. Unless there was a shift south...

Friday however....

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[Tom Jarvis]

Hi all what are my snow chances for the rest of the week from my location

[NO LONGER POSTING]

No, that one would barrel straight through us I'm afraid. All rain. Unless there was a shift south...

Friday however....

Model thread seem to think that too will happen :/

[Paul Sherman]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Kent

Valid from: 0005 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Snow showers running across Kent have the potential to give accumulation of 10 cm in places through the day. However, these will be quite localised, with many parts, especially in the west of the county, not seeing any showers.

Issued at: 1222 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358164860

Classic Kent Slapper! North Easterly winds

I can almost envisage the radar now, an endless stream of showers diving down from the NE, And heading off out into the English Channel!

Its going to be one of those days where the sky to my west will be blue and clear and just (Almost touching distance) to my East those big CB's over Kentshire

Going to take a punt and say Ashford, Canterbury areas are going to be the Sweet Spot Tomorrow! Showers exiting into the E Channel at Hastings and all points East!

Lucky ******'s

Edited January 15, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[bobbydog]

If not Friday... How about Monday ? :/

we dont want that! that would put us in a south-westerly flow.- cold but only northern parts of the country might see snow, we would just get rain.

Edited January 15, 2013 by bobbydog

[abruzzi spur]

Yellow Alert of Snow for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Southampton & West Berkshire

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358164860

Interesting, Their matrix has this currently as low likelihood but quite high impact, so their confidence is quite low - not surprising really as it is a fair way out yet. Can I caution us all that it is best to not get too hung up (fixated!?) on the position of the warning line in this type of potential set-up as I can see it moving west and east and/or disappearing altogether before we get there!

It has however made me think of when I was 13 in the 1978/1979 winter and living in Bristol where this batleground type of event produced a number of amazing snow experiences for the West Country.

AS

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thats why frankly I don't want that Low on Friday to come to far west :/

[liltbrockie]

Hi all what are my snow chances for the rest of the week from my location

www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snowforecast;type=;sess=0ecb4f41e94be58f81729aa50cef83fa

Edited January 15, 2013 by liltbrockie

[Southender]

Classic Kent Slapper! North Easterly winds

I can almost envisage the radar now, an endless stream of showers diving down from the NE, And heading off out into the English Channel!

Its going to be one of those days where the sky to my west will be blue and clear and just (Almost touching distance) to my East those big CB's over Kentshire

Going to take a punt and say Ashford, Canterbury areas are going to be the Sweet Spot Tomorrow!

Lucky ******'s

Yep. Worst situation for us here!

So many times I look across the Thames to my SE and I can see white hills in the distance or nothing at all. Just a big wall of grey/white steaming across the river.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[anything-but]

Classic Kent Slapper! North Easterly winds

I can almost envisage the radar now, an endless stream of showers diving down from the NE, And heading off out into the English Channel!

Its going to be one of those days where the sky to my west will be blue and clear and just (Almost touching distance) to my East those big CB's over Kentshire

Going to take a punt and say Ashford, Canterbury areas are going to be the Sweet Spot Tomorrow! Showers exiting into the E Channel at Hastings and all points East!

Lucky ******'s

If we get anything approaching a decent ammount of snow out of that i`ll eat a plate of veg! (ask my O/H,she`d tell you that`s about as high a bet i could place!).

[sarah7meme]

Am I in luck finally?

Bright blue skies in aylesham

Snow last night amounted lottle

[Biggin]

Interesting, Their matrix has this currently as low likelihood but quite high impact, so their confidence is quite low - not surprising really as it is a fair way out yet. Can I caution us all that it is best to not get too hung up (fixated!?) on the position of the warning line in this type of potential set-up as I can see it moving west and east and/or disappearing altogether before we get there!

It has however made me think of when I was 13 in the 1978/1979 winter and living in Bristol where this batleground type of event produced a number of amazing snow experiences for the West Country.

AS

In the report "As the weather breaks down"

Edited January 15, 2013 by Biggin

[blackprince]

Yep. Worst situation for us here!

So many times I look across the Thames to my SE and I can see white hills in the distance or nothing at all!!

It happened in reverse a couple of times in the recent past....looking out to sea from my house and seeing all the clouds heading across towards Essex in the distance and nothing our side of the estuary

[Paul Sherman]

It happened in reverse a couple of times in the recent past....looking out to sea from my house and seeing all the clouds heading across towards Essex in the distance and nothing our side of the estuary

Yh swings and roundabouts you are right

Dont take a look in our neighbours thread for gawd sake!

Thunder, Lightning, Blizzards, Whiteouts!!

All happening up there!

[95 Degrees]

Really coming down in Norwich! is this supposed to hit Kent/E.Sussex Later?

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/NorwichSirGarnet.html

[Joker]

Here we again in great anticipation for heavy snowfall. Let's hope we get massive blizzards sweeping in from the SW right across Southern counties and into our area with heavy drifting. I always remember the winter of 63 as a young child and the drifts were so high (Brighton) that they reached the tops of petrol station roofs - incredible memories.

Fingers crossed!

[Kentspur]

Yep. Worst situation for us here!

So many times I look across the Thames to my SE and I can see white hills in the distance or nothing at all. Just a big wall of grey/white steaming across the river.

And just as frustrating for me as all I keep hearing is "Kent will get snow" I look it up to find it will affect everywhere except my part of Kent! Yesterday north London Herts mid and North Essex etc had snow as they also had in December! And heavier warning for snow to the west of the region comes off it will feel like the snow is trying to avoid me:-(

[Paul Sherman]

This is where me mum and dad's boat is moored all year Just NE Of Norwich

Wroxham on the River Bure

http://www.norfolklive.org/camera/barnes-brinkcraft.html

[Neilsouth]

This is where me mum and dad's boat is moored all year Just NE Of Norwich

Wroxham on the River Bure

http://www.norfolkli...brinkcraft.html

Wow that's pretty, saying that though they've been very unlucky last few years

[Southender]

This is where me mum and dad's boat is moored all year Just NE Of Norwich

Wroxham on the River Bure

http://www.norfolkli...brinkcraft.html

Beautiful scene.

Look at the size of the flakes in Norwich. Epic.

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/NorwichSirGarnet.html