London & South East Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Sussex Jules]

Sort of. We could get 10cm+ but it could be followed by milder winds and a thaw within 48/72hrs.

Depends what you want really.

Lots of snow that sticks for a day or two. Or very littlle/no snow and cold.

a slight shift South and we could stay in the freezer longer.

But like you say if we can get it go a little more South we could be in the money

[SMU]

onto friday-

its a developing one- UKMO is good today- ECM is fast-

A quandry if you like-

What would you have-

* the PPN to miss to the SE & be dry

* the PPN to arrive- see heavy snow & then potentially turn to rain- ( of course it could slide through & stay as snow )

the UKMO is awsome at 72 & 96

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011500/UW72-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011500/UW96-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima- biting SE wind & PPN approaching

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011500/UW120-21.GIF?15-06 heavy snow moving in

at 120 the weather for the SE is heavy blowing snow- but when you run to the 144 the milder air has crept in-

we will need the centre of the low to stay to our SOUTH-

all in all an interesting week- getting colder by night & day- odd trough here & there & a possible main event later

S

[Sussex Jules]

As ever more runs needed and lets keep our expectations realistic

[fulham snow]

Hi All

I don't post on here much but I guess Im a "lurker" and try to make my own opinion up about what I think may happen. The last couple of days has been disappointing to say the least (in my area) especially when you look at some of the charts that were being posted in the last couple of weeks.

But I like to remain optimistic and I think parts of East Anglia and the South East (largely East Kent but possibly Central Kent too) may see some snow showers (poss q light) later on today from a batch of showers currently off the coast near the Wash and Norfolk but I think by about rush hour they will be in the Kent area if they manage to keep the intensity. Have a look at the current radar on the meteox website and then also look at the forecasted hours and you will see they are making their way down the East Coast. What do you all think? Don't shoot me down if you don't think thats the case. Just a thought.

I wasn't able to post a link/picture as it said the site doesn't allow me to use the "image extension on this community"

John

No chance,snow showers lose all there intensity the moment the reach the land.

Friday-Saturday does look much better but after yesterdays rain i am not holding me breath

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Heres hoping you crazy lot!

[SMU]

what temps we got around NW kent/ south essex- I am guessing now the DP is around -1/-2 something like that?

S

[JohnG]

few showers pepping up south of Norwich and in the north sea....

Yeah Ive just posted about this batch of showers. It does seem as if this lot will hit us sometime this afternoon. I just hope it won't just clip the coast of kent. We need those NE winds to pick up.

[Coast]

what temps we got around NW kent/ south essex- I am guessing now the DP is around -1/-2 something like that?

S

[Paul Sherman]

Just checked and we have

Temp 0.4c

Dewp -2.2c

Bladdy freezing! But still no easterly quadrant of wind!

[SMU]

cheers coast

paul what snow cover you got left- did the region get much last night?

S

Edited January 15, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Paul Sherman]

The only way we are going to see showers is if the winds turn more to the east, this has been more of a Northerly Cold Spell or North Westerly so far, watch those showers North of Norfolk, same old same old, get to Norwich and die, the ones in the North Sea could stay offshore and impact Herne and Eastern kent later. Now if only they would be from a NE Or a ENE And it would be GAME ON! As Ladbrokes Say!

[danm]

Batch of heavy showers moving towards the north Norfolk coast and some lighter showers currently over northern England moving south. Hopefully these could affect our region later this afternoon? Just have to hope they don't fizzle out before they get here. Currently any light showers moving through East Anglia are dying out inland, but if those showers stay potent enough we could see something from it.

[Paul Sherman]

cheers coast

paul what snow cover you got left- did the region get much last night?

S

When I went to bed it was about 1.5cm on the grass and about 2cm on cars, woke up and just a sugar dusting left on the grass and healthy cover on house roofs, nothing on the roads or pavements at all.

Car windscreens were devoid of ice, but then between 7am and 9am the temperature dropped from 0.7 down to -1.3c and everything froze over, car doors and puddles etc.

Have now crept upto 0.4c again in the Sunshine and only the roofs have cover!

[JohnG]

The only way we are going to see showers is if the winds turn more to the east, this has been more of a Northerly Cold Spell or North Westerly so far, watch those showers North of Norfolk, same old same old, get to Norwich and die, the ones in the North Sea could stay offshore and impact Herne and Eastern kent later. Now if only they would be from a NE Or a ENE And it would be GAME ON! As Ladbrokes Say!

Probably right!!! But you never know!! Im hoping from a selfish point of view they skirt down the east anglia coast building up intensity and then a big north easterly wind blows them inland to ME

[Stephen J Kimble]

Here in Bexhill

Temp:2.6c

DP: 0.1c

[john mac]

what temps we got around NW kent/ south essex- I am guessing now the DP is around -1/-2 something like that?

S

-1c dew point here mate

[Southender]

onto friday-

its a developing one- UKMO is good today- ECM is fast-

A quandry if you like-

What would you have-

* the PPN to miss to the SE & be dry

* the PPN to arrive- see heavy snow & then potentially turn to rain- ( of course it could slide through & stay as snow )

the UKMO is awsome at 72 & 96

http://www.meteociel...72-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?15-06 sub zero maxima- biting SE wind & PPN approaching

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?15-06 heavy snow moving in

at 120 the weather for the SE is heavy blowing snow- but when you run to the 144 the milder air has crept in-

we will need the centre of the low to stay to our SOUTH-

all in all an interesting week- getting colder by night & day- odd trough here & there & a possible main event later

S

Exactly what I was saying Steve.

GFS pressure charts suggest we are the right side of marginal at present. The centre of the low slips down the Irish Sea into Devon. As shown here -

Then, it takes a big dive SSE into NW France, as shown here - This is the key point for me. If it doesn't dive sharply as progged. It is game over.

It then starts to swing back ENE over Mid-France. And as Steve says, the centre of the Low stays to our South at ALL times. That is key. If the centre of the low starts to be modelled tracking up the Channel over the next couple of days, then start to worry. As that will give us a snow to rain scenario, whilst the Midlands north get buried!

Let's see how it pans out. But for my health I would like to see very very slight corrections South of this low pressure over the next couple of days. Not too far South mind or we could miss it altogether, but perhaps stay colder for longer. Catch 22 situation!

Anyhow, if the block to our NE is feeling particularly strong. The Low may not even get anywhere near our region. So many questions and so few answers at present. All we can do is look at what we have available, make a call and hope for the best.

But from experience and I am not trying to put a downer on this. Frontal snowfall from the Atlantic, very rarely does what we want it to in our locale. With a snow to rain scenario the common theme. Certainly in modern times. The Midlands north "usually" do the best out of these setups. But, who am I to say that this time it wont be different....

what temps we got around NW kent/ south essex- I am guessing now the DP is around -1/-2 something like that?

S

Temp: 1.2c

Dew: -1c

Here in Sarfend Steve.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Shrimper

[Paul Sherman]

Probably right!!! But you never know!! Im hoping from a selfish point of view they skirt down the east anglia coast building up intensity and then a big north easterly wind blows them inland to ME

Good luck

Look more like a Kent Clipper kind of day to me (Eastern 3rd of Kent)

Remember my rough workings out from the other day

NNE Or N = Kent Clipper (Eastern 3rd of Kent)

NE = Kent Slapper (Medway Towns and East)

ENE = Thames Streamer

ESE = ?? Still up for debate although I like Thames Tickler!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sheffield has snow lol that wern't forcast

[Sussex Jules]

Nice explanation thank you Shrimper confirms what I was thinking but good to see it explained so clearly

[SHM040519]

Met has forecasted me snow all day tomorrow in canterbury - ignore it?

[london-snow]

Exactly what I was saying Steve.

GFS pressure charts suggest we are the right side of marginal at present. The centre of the low slips down the Irish Sea into Devon. As shown here -

Then, it takes a big dive SSE into NW France, as shown here - This is the key point for me. If it doesn't dive sharply as progged. It is game over.

It then starts to swing back ENE over Mid-France. And as Steve says, the centre of the Low stays to our South at ALL times. That is key. If the centre of the low starts to be modelled tracking up the Channel over the next couple of days, then start to worry. As that will give us a snow to rain scenario, whilst the Midlands north get buried!

Let's see how it pans out. But for my health I would like to see very very slight corrections South of this low pressure over the next couple of days. Not too far South mind or we could miss it altogether, but perhaps stay colder for longer. Catch 22 situation!

Anyhow, if the block to our NE is feeling particularly strong. The Low may not even get anywhere near our region. So many questions and so few answers at present. All we can do is look at what we have available, make a call and hope for the best.

But from experience and I am not trying to put a downer on this. Frontal snowfall from the Atlantic, very rarely does what we want it to in our locale. With a snow to rain scenario the common theme. Certainly in modern times. The Midlands north "usually" do the best out of these setups. But, who am I to say that this time it wont be different....

Temp: 1.2c

Dew: -1c

Here in Sarfend Steve.

Brilliant post shrimper.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

i am actually surprised how far inland that PPN has moved up north..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I like snow shower...

But I also like this snow front..

BANK BANK BANK

[damp patch]

Lovely day so far. Last nights snow slowly melting in places exposed to sun. Temp very slowly rising and now at +1.0c

2am last night the snow was really coming down here with a gusty wind blowing it about. Min temp I saw was 0.1c. Would have been great if that snow could have continued for a little longer last night - but hey can't complain and so nice to see the snow ( albeit only a cm or so at most ) glistening in the sunshine today.

Wonder if we might get lucky at some point later today / tomorrow with perhaps a little trough coming in off north sea - certainly seems to be a fair number of nice looking radar returns and reports from folk in NE and Yorkshire etc so who knows.