South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[Polar Bear]

And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!

yep good observation there. Same here as well as a further decrease in temps. My fear is though it is still such a long way off and really it won't be until Friday morning we won't really know exactly what we will be dealing with and where. ..

[Chris K]

Evening all. For those in the Bristol area - Metoffice shows Filton as having snow from 12 noon Friday all the way through to 1800 Saturday. Let's av iiiit! :-)

Driving through Filton will be interesting during the evening rush hour if it actually happened haha...

[liam300]

And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!

You have heavy snow, but i have light snow here in Portsmouth.. Confusion lol

[Bristawl Si]

Evening all. For those in the Bristol area - Metoffice shows Filton as having snow from 12 noon Friday all the way through to 1800 Saturday. Let's av iiiit! :-)

Typical!

I wont be around....u couldnt make it up!

[Dave Kightley]

ukmo is the best tonight. init i trust

[AWD]

Thanks AWD, is that strong southerly flow still condusive for widespread snow or does it become more marginal. I'm guessing it does?

Give us an undercutter and then we all will be much better off I imagine.

Fax Charts will be very telling over the coming days.

The winds veering more southerly helps dampen the 850hpa temps somewhat, but as others have stated, its not all about the 850hpa temps.

Unfortunetly, we don't have across to detailed ECM charts like Dewpoint and WBFL etc so we can only speculate here.

The more south easterly the wind source stays on Friday, the more the PPN will fall as snow.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just out of interest, what is that lot out West off the SW and Western approaches right now?

I'm far too tuned in to Friday's event that it has passed me by.

Currently -2.1c AT, -2.9c DP and a steady barometer reading 1011.2mb

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Karl83]

Driving through Filton will be interesting during the evening rush hour if it actually happened haha...

Ha ha its bad enough when the weather is normal too!

Typical!

I wont be around....u couldnt make it up!

Now that is a shame! Hope you manage to catch something should it happen.

EDIT: And believe me I know how you feel. Waited so long for a decent storm last year. Saw the potential before I left country for 2 weeks and came back to a message or 2 from AWD that a cracking storm passed through Bristol, I was gutted. Still waiting... :-p

Edited January 15, 2013 by Karl83

[BARRY]

Just out of interest, what is that lot out West off the SW and Western approaches right now?

I'm far too tuned in to Friday's event that it has passed me by.

they give it to encroach on to cornwall and give a few spots of rain and then move away west

Edited January 15, 2013 by BARRY

[J10]

This is my post from teh Wlesh thread earlier in the evening,

Giving difference between the models, GFS not reallly covered as already with earlier in Welsh thread.

A few charts from best case scenario. (UKMO)

In Comparison to GFS shown in Jamie's post above which has shown in the charts above have uppers close to 0c.

ECM has uppers below zero, but at 12Hz they are close to zero for a time before dropping back later. Wind flow more of a southerly than SE.

GEM also looks promising

Tonight though UKMO the best charts which would give a snow event for virtually all, while GFS 06Hz would have much less snow for most.

Potential is still there, but this can go wrong is so many ways.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackone

[AWD]

Typical!

I wont be around....u couldnt make it up!

You'll be driving down to Dartmouth in;

[Polar Bear]

You have heavy snow, but i have light snow here in Portsmouth.. Confusion lol

check what it says for 9pm Friday .....

[Mark Parsons]

Thanks AWD, is that strong southerly flow still condusive for widespread snow or does it become more marginal. I'm guessing it does?

Give us an undercutter and then we all will be much better off I imagine.

Fax Charts will be very telling over the coming days.

This is what I am thinking, there is not enough SEastely shear on the isobars to give many within 5 miles of the coast anything but rain, IMHO there needs to be a more SE element for this to be a complete success or am I missing something like France being majorly cold???

[isleofwightsnowgal]

yep good observation there. Same here as well as a further decrease in temps. My fear is though it is still such a long way off and really it won't be until Friday morning we won't really know exactly what we will be dealing with and where. ..

Yeah I know, I need to keep feet on ground n not get too carried away but...it's soo hard not to get excited lol roll on fri......

[Polar Bear]

Hmm I think the current temp has dropped further already tonight to nearing -3 already . Anyone else had another temp drop?

[gottolovethisweather]

The winds veering more southerly helps dampen the 850hpa temps somewhat, but as others have stated, its not all about the 850hpa temps.

Unfortunetly, we don't have across to detailed ECM charts like Dewpoint and WBFL etc so we can only speculate here.

The more south easterly the wind source stays on Friday, the more the PPN will fall as snow.

The Dewpoints shown on the GFS 12z looked fine to me, although a bit more marginal further SW.

Were they ok to your eyes or am I missing something? Of course, all the different models will struggle to get a handle on this until <t+12 I suspect.

WBFL readings will be telling as you say.

[Bristawl Si]

You'll be driving down to Dartmouth in;

Well, i've already warned my wife that if it's really chucking it down with snow and it's defo set in for the day we wont be travelling.

This regional thread will be my stopping point from about 7.00am on Friday for realtime weather reports from Somerset and Devon.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Bristle boy

[kold weather]

GFS looks a little marginal for the western part of the region, as do some other models. On any elevation and further E/N in the region you get, the better this whole thing looks. Somewhere will get nailed.

[Ade]

I usually find that in cornwall we get snow when not expecting I.e. they say snow in hills with rain at lower levels. Ferguson now saying rain for cornwall and devon - oh well we will have to wait and see.

[AWD]

Just as an aside, these are the current resolution figures the Met Office short term models run at;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

[khodds]

and I am due to fly to Paris on Saturday morning from Exeter, I have to drive 40 miles to get to the airport will be just our luck we wont get there!!

I wish us both luck!

[karlos1983]

Temp -4C

Dew Point -5C

[Ade]

Just out of interest, what is that lot out West off the SW and Western approaches right now?

I'm far too tuned in to Friday's event that it has passed me by.

Currently -2.1c AT, -2.9c DP and a steady barometer reading 1011.2mb

David Braine said in local weather may give some sleet and snow - my current temp 4.4c unlikely.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Ade

[AWD]

The Dewpoints shown on the GFS 12z looked fine to me, although a bit more marginal further SW.

Were they ok to your eyes or am I missing something? Of course, all the different models will struggle to get a handle on this until <t+12 I suspect.

WBFL readings will be telling as you say.

Away from the far south west, say Somerset downwards the GFS is fine for most of Friday. Areas from roughly somewhere in Somerset northwards should see mostly snow Friday daytime.

The previous reply I made to you was more based on the ECM, which is probably the most marginal when taking the region as a whole in account.

Unfortunetly, we don't have access to detailed ECM charts.

[divadee]

I have been away for a few hours and struggling to catch up! Can anyone give me a brief synopsis?