South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[Iceberg]

If I have time I might put a bit more detail around this but to very quickly show why the 528 line is pretty useless in this set up for Friday and why I think the meto would be heavy snow for most in the sw.

I've chosen charts for midday on Friday as its a nice central point in the day, without any diurnal cooling.

Both charts are for the gfs 12z since we don't have freezing levels etc for meto gm output.

First chart shows the 528 line which is off in the North Sea, seeing this you would assume rain for nearly all of the country. However 528 refers to a thickness gradient across a big chunk of the lower atmosphere and not really the surface or the layer that contains the precip.

If we look at the freezing level we get a very different picture.

A freezing level of 100m or less equal certain snow in reality, 100-200 Indicates snow above 50-100m or under evaporative cooling. 200-400 indicates snow above 200-300m, sleet at 100-200m but this is effected by evapo cooling.

Anyway the picture is very very different and I don't see why the meto would be any different to be honest.

[farmer2555]

Devon 1891

Devon 1963

Devon 1978

? ?

(please insert here)

Devon 2013

[dec10snow]

Hi guys... You've managed to get through a lot of pages today people!

Anyway, as the met seem to be going for the snowy setup, does anyone else think that they ate currently playing it down with their prediction of 2-5 cm of snow? Or is it just me?!

[farmer2555]

I remember that will fingers crossed :-P

[Argyle1980]

There will be some good snowfall for Devon and Cornwall before the end of winter :-) loads of time left for things to change........ I hope!

[Joker]

Really think Devon/Cornwall will get a significant snow event before this winter says adios. Can feel it in me water

EDIT: and Dorset:-)

For those with "gut feeling", I also have a strong feeling that we might be on the verge of a memorable Winter. The METO are predicting a cold Feb. A "1947" is a little too hopeful but maybe, just maybe!!

[khodds]

Evening all,

Blimey! It's taken me all day to catch up.... The roller coaster was a bit bumpy! So seems we are still on then?

Temp dropping fast here, 0c exactly.

[BristolBlizzard]

For those with "gut feeling", I also have a strong feeling that we might be on the verge of a memorable Winter. The METO are predicting a cold Feb. A "1947" is a little too hopeful but maybe, just maybe!!

this friday jan 18th .........think 1947 got going jan 18th

[Iceberg]

Em is following the party even at t48 the angle of the jet is much better as it crosses the Atlantic. At t48 now it will be difficult to back track from this so excellent.

[Frosty_wsm]

There will be some good snowfall for Devon and Cornwall before the end of winter :-) loads of time left for things to change........ I hope!

I've been in st ives before when it's snowed there and settled, what a nightmare that was with the area being so hilly, lots of steep paths and roads, still it was great seeing the place like that, I'm only usually down there in the summer months.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Smartie

[Sainsbo]

-2C already here. I can see ice being a real problem tomorrow. As for Friday, let's hope it doesn't change!

[Wilxy]

Em is following the party even at t48 the angle of the jet is much better as it crosses the Atlantic. At t48 now it will be difficult to back track from this so excellent.

Be carefull what u wish for still time for change, but fingers crossed

[legritter]

Does anyone know what to expect weather wise in Exeter? As its nearer east devon than west, I want lots of snow so bad! So far I think we'll get some but we seem on the boundary in most precipitation type charts? I hope it moves westwards more lol

THIS i would think ,could be a classic snow event ,but oh so much information its getting brain draining .iv studied charts since the 60 s well late 60s and so many variations are possible ,but at a stab given present data etc i would say at this stage a 55 %chance of disruptive snow ,between midnight thurs /fri and towards monday ,forget present fax charts from earlier and wait till later ones today and tomorrow .look at current front aproaching irish sea and far s/west and how far ahead precipitation is .so fronts lying n/west s/east off cornwall could give depending on pressure ahead snow many miles ahead ,all very complex but exciting i say bring it on ,i wouldnt want to be a recruit up on dartmoor this weekend nor a meteorologist sticking their kneck out down at exeter ,cheers gang ,off to raid local supermarket ,cheers

[Oblix]

What might the prospects be for North Hampshire?

[Jason74]

Or it might not!

Sorry couldn't resist!

To be honest, I think this weekend is not going to happen for us on the south coast. Sleet/Rain, but still plenty of time before winter's out for a decent snowfall.

[jessandjon]

2.5 here

[DanDorsetUK]

I see MO now saying change to rain for southwest through friday.

[Dorsetbred]

Some nowcasting, it's gonna be cold tonight

OK so to substantiate that it' s -1.1C already, niceee

Edited January 15, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[124alex]

I see MO now saying change to rain for southwest through friday.

knew it not good at all this winter!

[AWD]

Not the best ECM IMO, but better than the 0z one.

Less cold uppers around SW still.

Not a bad run, just not as good as the GFS or UKMO.

Will post in more detail later

Edited January 15, 2013 by AWD

[Dorsetbred]

What might the prospects be for North Hampshire?

Same as the prospects for the rest area, and has been said many times on here, it's swings & roundabouts until T-48 then T-24, asking now you get a set of standard responses, yes it will, no it wont. Hang tight for another 24hours

[Blizzardof82]

I see MO now saying change to rain for southwest through friday.

Really? I am surprised by that looking at latest models.

[Oblix]

Same as the prospects for the rest area, and has been said many times on here, it's swings & roundabouts until T-48 then T-24, asking now you get a set of standard responses, yes it will, no it wont. Hang tight for another 24hours

[cerneman]

-1.4c Gritters busy tonight Got that fresh cold smell in the Air, Also smell of log burning fire,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Nice

[Oblix]

Many thanks Dorsetbred! (Sorry about posting a blank quote, I got distracted by my son).

The charts are looking favourable to me, just wondering what others might think.... but I'm guessing its probably already been said a number of times already today.